Tour de France 2009- Stages #10 & 11

To be totally, honest, I have found the last two stages of this year’s Tour to be a bit on the boring side. Not because there is anything boring about a field sprint…on the contrary.  And it is interesting to see history being made in front of your eye, as Mark Cavendish is cememting himself amongst the best sprinters ever to ride this race.  He has a few years to go, but if he stays healthy, he may be listed amongst the absolute best of all time, especially if he can keep a great team around him, who are dedicated to getting him across the line first.

I guess what bores me is a bit of the predictability of the racing, and indeed, how the field is more or less dedicated to resting this week, in anticipation of a shakeup in the overall next week.  I feel like a whole week is going to go by without any sort of challenge, or even a real effort on the part of half of the field.  The beauty of the race is that anything can happen at any time, but given the profiles of these stages, and the way most of the overall contenders are riding, they are seemingly content to not attack, and just get through the stages, avoiding the crashes, and making sure that they don’t miss any splits in the field.

I’ve  mentioned this in earlier postings, but I think that this is one of the weaknesses of the course design this year.  With the Pyrenees not being selective, and surrounding it by flat stages, very little has been done to really break up the leaders.  Now, I don’t know that that the race is purely designed for the viewing public, and a week from now, when there are three Alpine stages, a time trial, and then Mt. Ventoux all in a six day span, they my tone will be completely reversed.  I guess I am just hoping for something to think about, rather than the what-ifs questions which surround Astana day by day.  It is interesting to note that the flat stages have all but curbed those discussions in the media, as they have  played out, while waiting for the fireworks to begin.

Don’t get me wrong….I still love the race, and all that it entails.  I know that at any moment something unique could happen….a crash, a breakaway or split in the field, and the race could be completely turned upside down.

We’ll just have to wait and see.

Is it Still Rock ‘n Roll to Me?

I went last night to Nationals Park to see the 2009 rendition of the Face to Face Tour with Billy Joel and Elton John.  When I look at my lifetime as a music fan, Billy Joel was always one of my favorites since I was young.  There was a time I would have considered myself a bigger Billy Joel fan than a Springsteen fan.  My first concert was in January, 1987, as part of The Bridge tour. I enjoyed his writing, his musical ability, his energy and his showmanship.  Even though he essentially retired from recording in the mid ‘90s, after The River of Dreams, a phenomenal recording, Joel still performed now and again, and I saw him play several times whenever he came to town. 

I became an Elton John fan sometime in the late ‘80s/early ‘90s, when it became okay to be one.  I remembered a lot of his early music from the radio, and once he put aside his ultra-flamboyant side on stage, I recognized him as a phenomenal performer, and a musician on par with Billy Joel, if not better.  I remember thinking when I saw them in 1994 on their original Face to Face Tour, that this was the ultimate pairing, and I recall that show (at RFK Stadium) filling the place up, and really rocking.  It was everything that a rock concert should be.

Last night, though, I had other feelings.  I think it starts with the fact that they are two 60+ year old performers, neither of whom have written anything relevant in well over a decade.  They filled the park with enthusiasts, which clearly ranged in age from teenager to older than me.  I think the crowd really wanted to get into the show, but struggled to do so.  I am used to shows where you get up on the first number, and you are on your feet until the end.  Last night, I sat for almost the entire show.  Admittedly, it was an interesting format.  Both men came out in the beginning to play a couple of tunes together, and it was understood that they would follow that with a set of each of them playing their own songs solo, ending with a set where they would play together.

From the get go, some things weren’t right.  They opened up with two relatively quiet songs (John’s Your Song and Joel’s Just the Way You Are).  I am used to shows where the opening cuts are meant to get my ass rocking, not songs that are meant to gently remind me that the show is starting, and that it might be time for me to get to my seat.  There were some other technical issues, both with the sound and with John’s piano, such that the opening set was scrapped during the 3^rd song, and going right into Joel’s solo set.

I’m not going to say that his set was bad.  He picked ten-odd songs that most casual fans would know, and most of them were high-energy songs (Only the Good Die Young, Angry Young Man, River of Drams, We Didn’t Start the Fire, It’s Still Rock & Roll to Me), but there was something to the set that was missing:   a spark, or a connection with the audience.  Admittedly, one can only make so much of an impression when in essence he is only playing half the show, not a full concert.

When Elton John came back on stage, he did so in a manner which I considered to be a bit cantankerous, as if to say that he was still upset about the earlier technical difficulties.  I will say that I am a decent Elton John fan, which is to say that I know most of his biggest hits, and when I saw him live in 1995, by himself, I seem to remember being familiar with all of his songs.  With that being said, when he opened up, he did so with a tune that I had no idea what it was.  He did give an intro that was mumbled, perhaps due to acoustics and perhaps due to his British accent.  The same thing happened to the 3^rd song.  I was looking around me, and in essence, the audience, almost all sitting down, save for those running to the beer stand, had no idea what he was playing.  He eventually put together a decent string of his best hits (Goodbye Yellow Brick Road, Philadephia Freedom, Rocket Man, Bennie & the Jets, Daniel, Tiny Dancer), and revived the set, but in my eyes, the damage had already been done.  I felt as if he was on stage playing, but for himself, and not really working to engage the audience in a way that I am used to.

The highlight was clearly in the closing set, when both men took the stage together for a final set, where they played some great tunes together, alternating from each other’s catalogs. They played I Guess that’s Why They Call Them the Blues, You May Be Right, Don’t Let the Sun Go Down on Me, and climaxing with a joint Piano Man. The energy was great, and the audience finally were engaged and on their feet.  Unfortnuately, a lot of those on their feet were on their way towards the exits to get an early jump on the Metro.  Admittedly, I was one of them, although I compromised by leaving my upper-deck seat to hear/see the last set on ground level so that I could bolt right when they were finished.

Don’t get me wrong, it was not a bad show.  It is tough to put together a good program with two men with such huge catalogs.  With many artists, they will craft a show which gives you an emotional charge at the beginning to get you into it, cools it off a bit, only to build back up and hit a home run at the end.  I maybe spoiled by decades of Springsteen shows, but this is the roller-coaster ride I am looking for in a show.  For me, a great show will make me forget about everything else:  whatever stresses I may be having at home/work, the metro ride over, the rest of the audience, what I am doing tomorrow…a total means of taking my focus, and keeping it there through the last song. I didn’t have that tonight.  I give the show a 6.5/7 on a scale of 1-10.  It was not the worst show I have ever seen, but definitely not the best.  I am not sure what I was expecting.  Maybe I am being too critical about the performance, but since I have seen them both play separately (and together) before, I was making a mental comparison which did not come out favorably.

It did make me think about the art of staying relevant, and of their place in modern entertainment.  The great thing about music is that you need not ever actually retire, if there are still people who want to hear what you have to say. When you have had careers like these two, you have created music that will live on forever, and which could easily transcend generations, even if it is stylistically and lyrically different than most of what you would hear on the radio today. Unfortunately, what I heard last night may have been better suited to a Las Vegas greatest hits review type show.  The casual fan probably was very pleased with the show, while people like me were a bit disappointed.  I heard people on the Metro, both older and younger than me, say that it was the best show they had ever been to.  I’m glad they thought so; a rock concert should be a good time. I’m glad that they got their money’s worth.

It made me think of Michael Jackson, and all this ridiculous hype we have witnessed in the past two weeks since his death.  At what point, I wonder, does one become irrelevant as a performer, even if the music is still forever frozen in the time in which it was written/recorded?  When I think of Jackson, Joel and John, all three are decades past their primes, That doesn’t mean that they don’t have fans of their music, but that doesn’t mean that their ability to present it in concert is still at its best. When they made cracks about thanking us for coming and buying tickets, and that they are still happy to be working, it made me think that they were only in it for the money.  As a fan, I don’t want to see a show where the performer’s heart clearly isn’t into it.  A greatest hits review show is a hard thing to sit through at times, when you know that there is absolutely nothing new to hear that you haven’t heard before. That being said, it can be an experience to treasure, knowing that you may not seen them live again…no one can really perform at this level forever.

I know that these types of thoughts always come back to a comparison with Springsteen especially since he is essentially from the same era as a peak performer, in the 1970’s and 1980’s.  The reason why I love seeing his shows is that from one tour to the next, there is always new music, interspersed with old favorites.  He acts like he is on a mission, and the audience clearly gets sucked in as part of his show, and for 3 hours, nothing else exists.  There is no way that you want to get up early to leave, or miss a song, simply because you never know what you might miss out on.  His songs reflect his vision of the world as he sees it now, and while he may still sing the songs of a 25 year old in some songs, he is also writing as a 60 year old.  While his songs may not inundate the radio, the music he produces still has meaning and value today.

I can’t say that I would have wanted to go see Michael Jackson play live, had he come here, because I will forever remember Michael (musically) as the man who performed and dance to the Thriller songs, and to a lesser extent, to the material on Bad.  By the time that Dangerous came out in the early 1990’s, he had already started slipping into the abyss of weirdness, which was ultimately followed by behavior that ranged from erratic, to curious, to egotistical, to questionable, and to possibly societally unacceptable. As I see his album sales soar now, and the nation collectively mourn his death, I still can’t figure out how millions of youths can be so torn apart by the loss of a man that they never knew as a great performer.  His hey-day was when I was in elementary and intermediate school; many of the the people I see posting on the internet about how they grieve his loss were barely born when he still had much of a level of credibility as a performer. It almost makes me angry, because it feels as if he is being martyrized by people that should have seen him for the freak that he had become. Then it struck me.

The reason why Michael Jackson is being revived and revered as a musical legend is not because he died tragically, or because of possibly dying too young.  He is being celebrated for much the same reason why I went to the concert last night.  Musical fans want to remember their idols or musical favorites for the people they were when they were on top.  The relevance of the Michael Jackson, Billy Joel, or Elton John catalogs, or even as current performers stems from the lasting and indelible imprints they have made in history.  You can argue all you want about the significance that pop music, or any other form of art, in terms of society as a whole, but through their music, they have left their marks.  They have made us happy through their creations. I went last night to hear Elton and Billy play as 30 or 40 year olds, not as 60 year olds, and maybe that was not realistic.  It has been decades since most people would have readily admitted to being a Michael Jackson fan, but there are very few people who were music fans in the 1980’s who could deny enjoying his music, or watching his ground-breaking videos.  I still enjoy certain tunes from Michael Jackson, and always will, even if the person he became was not someone I could necessarily understand.  I will forever remember the younger, MTV-pioneering  Michael, and I will always remember what Billy Joel did for me in my youth, even if I have to admit that his days as a peak performer are well behind him.

This whole idea of outgrowing your performing abilities is somewhat clouded, given that Springsteen still hasn’t lost much of a step, but I am willing to accept that older musicians may not seem relevant to the general public. For the older generations, their significance is in their ability to take us back to a different place and time, and provide us with that familiar feeling of comfort, reminding us when we listen that those places in our life are not gone forever. Even as these performers may come and go, we can use their music to continue to inspire newer listeners, as we may once have been enticed to listen in the first place. It is the glory of music, and it is what will continue to link us between the present in the past, and enrich each of our lives in a very personal way.

Tour de France 2009- Stage #9

The 9^th stage of this year’s Tour de France ended the peleton’s trip through the Pyrenees, and it accented a number of themes that are evident in this year’s race.  First of all, compared to some years, the first half of the race is more or less devoid of killer stages which would completely shatter the standings.  The team trial provided some decent gaps, and some riders were dropped, and the stage on Friday to Arcalis certainly weeded out some riders from the top of the standings.  With that in mind, though, when you go to the first mountain top finish and you have a pack of 20-30 riders, that tells me that the course is not really being decisive.

I find it interesting that this year, the breakaways are mostly surviving.  Part of this is because the way the last two stages were designed with 40-60 km of descending and flat roads after the big climbs.  The riders at the front of the peleton either do not have the proper incentive to go after the stage wins, or for some of the favorites, they are not willing/able to challenge Astana.  My hat goes off to the men, like today’s winner, Pierrick Fedrigo, who have been brave enough to attempt a day-long breakaway, and make it stick.

I like those years when the first mountain range included back-to-back mountaintop finishes, to make a real order to the race.  As it stands, Astana is still basically in charge of the race, although they have lent the yellow jersey to a no-name rider (sorry, Rinaldo Nocentini), so that his team can essentially control the peleton over the flat stages, and relieve Astana of some undue pressures and responsibilities.  I’m sure that the AG2R team will do their best, and are loving the exposure, but they know that they are one serious attack from losing the jersey.

In my opinion, looking at this next week, a time trial before going into the Alps would have made more sense than essentially having four flat stages before returning to the mountains.  I don’t know…just something to break up the race more, and keep the riders more on edge.

I read this morning on Yahoo Sports essentially what everyone is thinking anyways, that being that Alberto Contador is not really capable of having the patience and self-control to ride the race according to the directions of Johann Bruyneel.  I really like Contador, and I wish he would bury his ego just a little bit, let his team control the race, through the next time trial, and then go mano a mano against Armstrong on Mont Ventoux.  I worry about seeing the team broken up after this race, and having Bruyneel have to leave Astana w/Lance, and then seeing the strongest stage racing team torn apart.  It is a longshot, but I think it is conceivable that Astana could go 1-2-3 in the overall, assumably with Levi, and still have Kloeden in a high spot.  That would be dominance that supercedes the 1-2-4 finishes of the 1986 La Vie Claire team.

One thing is for sure, Cadel Evans, Carlos Sastre, the Schlecks, Christian Vande Velde (and maybe Bradley Wiggins), Roman Krueziger, and maybe even Tony Martin are going to have to spend the next 4 days trying to figure out what they can do in the Alps that they couldn’t do in the Pyrenees, meaning break the race open.

Tour de France 2009- Stage #8

Today’s stage was an interesting one, even though the overall picture didn’t shift too much. When the Tour goes into the Pyrenees, there is always the opportunity for change, if not raw carnage.  Truthfully, I’m not so sure that an incredible shake up was expected today, with the big climbs coming in the earlier part of the stage, and over 40km of descending to the finish. That doesn’t mean there weren’t some minor messages sent, which may have larger significance as the race plays out.

First of all, after his heroics of the beginning of this week, Mark Cavendish is no longer the points leader, with the green jersey swinging over to Thor Hushovd. This doesn’t mean that Cavendish can’t get it back, and it doesn’t suggest that he can’t win it in Paris.  What it does signify is that it is not the one man race that it appeared last weekend, and indeed, it serves as a reminder that the green jersey winner really is the one who is most consistant, day after day, fighting for the points.  I am not about to call Thor Hushovd a climber at all, but I think it shows his experience and strength that he could enter a breakaway, survive a climb, just to get out and steal two intermediate sprints along the way, and turn a one point defecit into an eleven point lead.  Cavendish is still probably the better sprinter, but he will have to work hard now to get an edge on Hushovd in the next two weeks, and realize that every opportunity will count, not just those earned at the end of a lead-out train.

To no surprise, the leaders showed that Nocentini is not a long term contender in the final battle.  Ironically enough, though, he held on to a mid-race attack, and may even survive tomorrow, which is not a mountain-top finish either. This would essentially give him a week in the jersey, because Astana is not going to try and take the jersey just for the sake of having it, when the responsibility of leading the race could be given to, or at least shared with, the Agritubel team.  Kudos for this young rider, because he really just survived into the jersey, without truly  targeting it.

The climber’s jersey is still what I said from Day One…up for grabs.  The minor French riders like Feillu and Kern seem content to fight over it, and I still wouldn’t predict that they are still there on the final climbs next week.  I miss seeing a real contender make this a priority, instead of just leaving it up for grabs to the breakaway sort, who would rather rack up points on the early climbs, than fight out the general classification, as well.

I would be remiss if I didn’t address the Astana situation.  Clearly, there were members on the team (Lance & Levi) who were less than pleased with Alberto’s attack at the end of the day yesterday.  I think Bruyneel needs to do something to soothe their egos a bit, but given that they still have the top four GC riders (no, I’m not including Nocentini), I would like to think there is possibly enough spoils to go around.  Of course, race tactics do play a role, but I doubt sincerely if either Lance, or Levi, or Kloeden would have exploded from the field yesterday, just for the sake of making some kind of statement to the team.  They are collectively riding very well, and while I still contend that Alberto is the best rider and should be protected, I also feel like he needs to accept that there are others on the team deserving that respect, and that perhaps the race should ultimately be decided in the time trial and Mt. Ventoux in the last week. I worry about what might happen if Levi or Kloden were to get in a breakaway….would he sit back with the team, or chase them down himself.  I like Alberto, and the way he rides, but I am starting to wonder if he is acting a little bit childish, and showing some personal insecurities, when in fact, he should be feeling very good that the whole top of the race is his team. There is still a lot of racing to be done, and the hardest part of the race is ahead.  Team harmony is going to be essential, because the race is only going to become more difficult.

I am hesitant to make predictions for the final this far out, although I might address this on the rest day, once the Pyrenees are completed.  I will say that Cadel Evans is looking good, and the Schlecks are showing that they are willing to try something to find an opening.  You still can’t discount Sastre, and even Menchov is hanging on with the leaders. They are all going to have to do something special to dislodge the Astana armada, and they may have to work collectively to do it.  I should also say that Christian Vande Velde is looking better every day, and is riding like he may still be a factor in the overall this year.  The jury is out on other young riders like Nibali, Tony Martin, Kreuziger, Monfort and Bradley Wiggins.  Each have done well to stay high in the overall, but then, we have not really seen a day since the team time trial where the favorites gained serious time over one another.

One more day in the Pyrenees tomorrow.

Tour de France 2009- Stage #7

What a day….you gotta love when the race hits the mountains.  Today showed a lot of things, which may ultimately contribute to the final picture of what is this year’s Tour de France.

First of all, the Astana team showed that they were as good as advertised, if there was any questions remaining.  It shouldn’t be a surprise, given that Bruyneel has won 8 Tours de France, riding in a similar fashion, with the whole of the team at the head of the field when the roads hit the mountains, pushing a pace to make sure that rivals wouldn’t be able to easily escape, and indeed, to whittle down the field as a whole.  When you have guys like Haimar Zubeldia and Yaroslav Popovych taking 10km pulls at the front, doing yoeman’s work for the whole of the day, both men with top 10 finishes themselves in the Tour, you know you have a strong team.

I was not surprised to see a number of riders fall away.  The mountains tend to be great equalizers.  With that in mind, though, all it did was to whittle some pretenders away.  Many of the favorites stayed in contact.  What was shown today, though, is that Alberto Contador is clearly the best climber in the world.  After being held back for most of the day, riding in the slipstream of his team, he rocketed away from the field with a sense of easy which belies the effort necessary, and in a way which no one could challenge. If there had been a question as to who the best rider on Astana was, it was answered in only a mile and a half or so.  Armstrong played the perfect teammate, staying back with the other leaders, such as Evans, both Schlecks, Vande Velde, Sastre and Leipheimer.  He knew better than to chase a teammate, and truthfully, I’m not sure that he could have caught him anyways.  I said before the race started that Contador was the man to beat, and Armstrong would do well to finish in the top 10.  I am willing to concede that Armstrong may finish higher than 8^th; he may even be a podium contender.  With that in mind, though, he survived in the mountains, but I am curious to know how he will deal with the day after day challenges, or if he will ever actually attack in the mountains, something I am still not convinced he can do yet.

I should give credit the the winners of the day, in Brice Feillu, who won the stage, and the Italian Ricardo Nocentini, who stole the yellow jersey from Astana.  They were both beneficiaries of a daylong, hard breakaway, and should not be playersi nthe race again, even after Saturday. I don’t know that the next two days in the Pyrenees will open huge gaps amonst the leaders, even though there will be some good climbs to weed out some of the weaker riders.

I can easily see Contador taking the lead on Saturday.  I am still not convinced that Armstrong can beat him.  By my calculations, he will need to gain at least two minutes, most likely in the final time trial, to be able to possibly hold off a Contador attack on Mont Ventoux.  I don’t know that this is realistic, but I figure that the time trial will be the only chance for him to take time away, because Armstrong is not going to be allowed (able) to attack him in the mountains.  I don’t see that kind of advantage being gained, though.  Armstrong looks better each day, but at his age, I can’t help but think that it is not just what he does on any one day, it will be a test of his recovery each day, after day. It is great to see Leipheimer and Vande Velde still up high.  Astana is still capable of having two or even three riders on the podium, although I do believe that the other riders will still try to attack them; I just don’t know if they will make it stick.

This is when the race gets really fun, and I believe that the Pyrenees will only serve as a barometer to the fireworks we will see in the Alps in the 3^rd week.

Day Two in the mountains await….

Tour de France -2009- Stage 6

The race is starting in earnest tomorrow, although today probably took it’s toll on the riders more than the rest of the week, with much of the race run in the rain.  There were plenty of crashes to go along with the most challenging terrain presented thus far, and with the mountains coming for real tomorrow, the 2 km climb to the finish today is just an hor d’ouvre for what kind of damage is sure to be done.

I really feel bad for David Millar.  He has not always been the easiest rider to route for in the past, but since coming to Garmin-Slipstream (I was calling them Garmin-Chipotle earlier in the week…sorry to err on the co-sponsor), he has taken on a real veteran’s role, and this stage was tailor made for him.  Had it been flat at the finish, he may have survived, but being caught at the final climb destroyed the day for him.  I believe he was caught in the last 50m before the line earlier this spring in the Giro, although don’t quote me on the race.  When you see someone put forth that kind of effort all day, riding strong and steady in a day long breakaway, you do route for him to succeed.  But then, the Tour doesn’t always cater to such expectations. 

It was interesting to see a 50+ rider group sprinting up hill.  Astana looked fantastic on the front.  I wasn’t sure if they were trying to set up Armstrong for a moment, but logically, they had to know that they would not shed Cancellara, and they were probably just trying to make sure they didn’t miss a gap.  I will say that I do like Thor Hushovd, and I am glad he got his today.  With the success of Cavendish this year, it is easy to overlook some of the other sprinters, and Thor is one of the best, and has been for several years. He has tightened up the points race to one point, and it will be interesting to see it resume next week, after the Pyrenees, but for the next few days, they are going to just have to work to get through the tough stages in the mountains.

A few observations about the overall picture…The overall standings were shaken slightly today. With some of the pretenders near the top losing 50 seconds to a minute (or more), some of them have started to fall back, while guys like Evans, Sastre, and Schleck have started moving up.  They still have a couple minute gap on the Astana juggernaut, but tomorrow should help to weed out those men who are not really players in the overall, and we may perhaps see the aforementioned favorites come back up into the top 10 or 15 or so.  Denis Menchov has shown that he just doesn’t have it today.  He may be suffering from his crash of a couple days ago, or perhaps he is just fried after the Giro, but losing an additional 1:02, to bring his overall defecit has shown that he just doesn’t have the form to really challenge for the overall this year.  He may recover enough to go after a stage, but usually, when things go bad in the Tour in Week One, the mountains don’t sudden improve things for the riders.

Astana looks really good, as does Christian Vande Velde who has quietly slipped into the top 10. Tomorrow will be a big day for him.  If he can get through the Pyrenees without giving up too much time to the favorites, he can still contend for a high finish.  He has a small cushion, and if can follow the favorites over the next week, he may ultimately get stronger, and be able to really open up in the Alps.

I am expecting changes tomorrow, including one of the Astana riders to finally take the jersey, and I am not going to venture a guess as to what will happen.  I will say that for the contenders who have lost a few minutes, they have the luxury of working together to try and recoup lost time, because Astana is the common enemy for all of them.  With that in mind, though, while one or two Astana riders may be shed, dropping all four will be incredibly hard.  I could very easily see all four of them (Lance, Alberto, Kloeden, and Leipheimer) moving up to the 1-4 slots tomorrow, riding en masse up the final climb, with perhaps one of them shooting away for the stage win. If I were Bruyneel, I would do my best to keep them all together, because having four at the top of the standings maintains a quadruple threat for their rivals, and only keeps their options open for the weeks ahead. Being in Spain, Contador may be very motivated, and it is not unlikely that he will attack.  The big question is if Lance will have an answer for him, or if Contador will disappear up the road while his teammates sit back. I think one of the keys to Armstrong success is his growing confidence, which may make up for a slight lack of conditioning in the long run, and allow him to dig deeper.

One thing is for sure…the fireworks will be ignited tomorrow, and one way or another, the race standing will change, and the contenders for the final victory will make their way to the top of the standings, while the hopes and dreams of others will end in the first day of the mountains.

As far as I am concerned, the race begins tomorrow….

Tour de France 2009- Stage 5

Today’s stage was supposed to be a day when the Tour de France would mainly relax and recover from yesterday’s effort in the team time trial, with a perhaps predictable outcome with the sprinters (meaning Mark Cavendish) fighting for the stage win.  It was assumed that a breakaway would get away, gain some time, only to have the pack chase them down near the end, leading up to a field sprint.

In many ways, today’s stage followed suit.  Six riders, none who were even remotely a threat to the overall leaders, broke away, building a lead of several minutes, while the rest of the pack bided their time.  The overall leaders, lead by the Astana time, remained attentive at the front, making sure that the windswept route didn’t leave them caught out in a split.  Apparently, much of the field was thinking the same thing, even though during the later stages of day, a split was initiated, with no less than Fabian Cancellara leading the chase.  About 2/3 of the pack followed, although a good 20-30 seconds did separate the pack.  In the end, the pack came back together, although not without having to do some work to keep things together.

It seems rare that breaks stay away, and given the normal access riders have to information on time splits, it makes sense that the large pack almost always overtakes the breakaways, even if it is in the last few kilometers, nullifying a day-long escapade out in the wind.  Today was unique in that with 10km to go, the pack looked like they were just going to do it.  Unfortunately, it was clear that the sprinter’s teams didn’t get things organized.  Apparently, Columbia-HTC was upset that the other sprinter’s teams weren’t contributing to the chase, instead leaving the sole responsibility for the chase to them.  I guess in one way, it makes sense, in that it the could be one of the few ways for rivals to weaken the Cavendish grip. Unfortunately for them, they all lost out.

Kudos should go to the winner of the day, Thomas Voeckler.  With the French riders earning few prizes in recent years, he deserved this win.  I remember him as a younger rider, leading the race for 10 days in 2004, only to be overtaken by Lance Armstrong. Since then, he has shown a propensity to be active in breakaways, without finding much success. I was amazed at the tenacity of his final attack from his breakaway partners.  Normally, with  a few kilometers remaining, the escapees will begin to attack one another, only to chase each other down, leaving it up to a sprint.  It was really cool to see him get a gap, and not have anyone be able to counter the move.  I don’t know if it was indecision on the part of his breakaway cohorts, or purely fatigue, but I will say that I surprised that he got the gap, and then was able to hold off the pack, who finished a scant seven seconds behind.  At least for today, it seemed like everyone got what they deserved, both for the courage of the breakaway, and the squabbling of the chase.

Tomorrow’s profile looks interesting.  There are some humps in it, and the finish is up a one kilometer climb.  Given his strength thus far, I would be surprised to see Cancellara lose his lead, but with a well-timed surge at the finish, it is conceivable that Lance could get a one second lead and take yellow.  With the first real mountains on Friday, Astana is going to have to play the role of peleton police anyways, they may as well have something to show for it.

I guess we’ll just have to see where the road takes us.

Tour de France 2009- Stage 4

Wow, what a day. After a weekend where the talk seemed to center on the perceived intrasquad struggle for leadership within the Astana team, this was the day that demonstrated that it might be a moot discussion, because one way or another, the ultimate Tour winner would be wearing the turquoise, yellow and white.  I’ve always been a fan of the team time trial, and not only am I glad that the event was brought back, but those dumb rules instituted in recent editions which limited the losses of teams (an anti-Lance/USPS/Discovery rule, by my account), was vanquished.  The true time, given on the team’s fifth rider is proper, and it should be an event that teams should prepare for, and indeed plan around, when determining their Tour rosters.  Today’s gaps were telling, and I agree with what Lance said, in that he believes that some rider’s are finished in their bids for the yellow jersey this year.

Last week, I bemoaned the notion that there was too little time trialing this year, and in the end, that may still be the case.  With that in mind, though, it is amazing how much damage has been done in the two time trial stages already.  Denis Menchov, in particular, has shown that while he may possibly recoup some time in the mountains, the form he showed in the Giro in May is gone now, and a defecit of nearly 4 minutes to Armstrong and Contador, he will struggle to make the podium this year.  He is not a rider that the leaders will allow to just break away in the mountains, and he is not showing the form which suggests that he will power away on his own. Cadel Evans is another man who may have left his yellow dreams on the roads today.  He may match the leaders in the mountains and in the time trials, but to make up nearly three minutes on the Astana leaders, he needs a special effort, and indeed, a mishap on the Astana group.

Obviously, the biggest story surrounds the win for Astana, and the fact that Armstrong is now virtually tied for the lead, missing out on the yellow jersey by 0.22 seconds.  As a fan, I’m sure that I am like most people in that I would have loved to see Armstrong in yellow.  Given his comeback, it might have made the race to see him return and take the lead, but obviously, it wasn’t in the cards.  Kudos to Fabian Cancellara to preserve his lead, even by the slimmest of margins. In the long run, though, not having the lead might not be the worst thing, though. In the next couple of days, they will not have the responsibility of controlling the pack, and with the media clamoring over a rift between Armstrong and Contador, maybe not having the lead will allow them both to be freer of team responsibilities when the race hits the Pyrenees on Friday.  I am still of the opinion that Contador should be their protected rider for the overall, but having essentially the four top overall riders in the race right now will only strengthen their position come the mountains.  I am guarded in my enthusiasm for Armstrong, only because I am not willing to consider a favorite for the overall until he rides in the mountains.  One needs to remember that head to head, Contador beat him handily in the time trial, and Armstrong only got a lead on him due to being astute yesterday when another team made their move.  The mountains will answer more questions this weekend, but with only four days gone, there is still A LOT of riding to do.

I talked about the losers today: Menchov and Evans being the big ones, with Carlos Sastre also finding himself 2:44 behind.  Unlike Menchov and Evans, though, he differs in his ability to actually attack successfully in the mountains. With the exception of Contador, and maybe Andy Schleck, he stands to be potentially the biggest threat when the climbs are steepest.  There were clearly some teams who should be feeling good after today.  I give Garmin-Chipotle the highest of marks.  Even though they lost four of their riders fairly early (and unexpectedly), the remaining five rode a phenomenal race to finish a solid second.  While I won’t say they will threaten the Astana stranglehold, Christian Vande Velde has to be feeling pretty good right now.  Of the pre-race contendors, he sits closest to the Astana quartet, and is starting to show some strength.  If he can get through the Pyrenees intact, he could conceivably see himself getting to the Alps in the last week more fresh, and with more room for improvement than some of his rivals, which could bode well for a high finish in Paris.

The Schleck brothers, and certain Fabian Cancellara have to be reasonably content with their ride.  I said yesterday that I thought they would lose 30-40 seconds, and they did lose 40.  The time given away to Contador and company should be a concern for the Schlecks, but of the favorites, they managed to limit their losses the best, and are in a reasonable position heading into the mountains. Lastly, Columbia-HTC should feel content with their ride, even if they are probably not overjoyed.  In essence, they rode their team time trial yesterday, when they took 41 seconds out of the field.  It is fair to say that Monday’s effort took its toll on the team today, who looked like they were struggling a bit.  They fell back just a bit, and while Kim Kirchen and Michael Rogers may have lost a little bit of time on Astana, I don’t believe it to be significant, because neither are real contenders, and in essence, they either lost very little, or even gained some time on most of their rivals.

As for tomorrow, I will assume that some normalcy will be restored to the race.  Of course, Columbia will hope to set up the race for Mark Cavendish, but not before a group of opportunists try to break away and stay away.  The course itself doesn’t offer too much by way of challenge.  It is likely that the bunch will want to recover from today, but as we’ve seen, the race is unpredictable, which is why whatever I say here is nothing more than observation and speculation.  The Tour changes daily, and the riders who are ultimately successful are the ones who manage the unexpected with the greatest of ease.

Until tomorrow…..

Tour de France 2009- Stage 3

There actually is a reason why they ride the races, and don’t simply award the stages and the yellow jersey based upon reputation alone.  On those days which, on paper, would seem to be easy and relatively uneventful, one never knows when some unusual will happen.  Today proved that the best riders are not always the strongest, but the most attentive, or perhaps those willing to take the occasional risk.

Most of the stage was textbook in nature.  Four midling riders broke away early, where there were a few small climbs, in hopes of surviving the pancake-flat strip to the finish. Most people expected them to get some time, only to be caught near the end as a prelude to Mark Cavendish’s second straight stage win at the front of 179 strong field. Well, alot of this did happen. The riders did stay away most of the day, only to be caught by Columbia-HTC’s train, leading Cavendish to another strong victory. What wasn’t necessarily expected was the toll the stage took on the field.

With a strong cross wind in the last 40 km or so, Columbia took advantage of the course to split up the field.  With all nine riders on the front, they looked like the USPS/Discovery riders leading Armstrong in the moutains, showing their true strength, and not allowing anyone to get around.  With this unexpected attack, though, came an unexpected split, which ultimately created a breakaway group of 27 riders, late in the stage.  With perhaps the strongest team in the race (on the plains anyways) driving the break in full, the pack as a whole struggled to get organized, and a short split ultimately grew to 41 seconds by the finish.

Now, I will say that I don’t think that the race is won or lost for anyone.  The effort to gain time today can easily be overturned in the mountains next weekend, or indeed in the team time trial tomorrow.  The significance of the break though, had everything to do with who was in it.  Cancellara was in the break, which ultimately kept Saxobank from chasing, even if he is really not their long-term leader.  Some outside threats like Michael Rogers and Kim Kirchen gained some time, even if they are not really true contenders in the long run.  The presence of Lance Armstrong, though, made the race truly interesting.

With Lance making the break, it does confirm a few things. First of all, it shows that he is here to race.  He made his career successful by being attentive, and always riding at the front, and looking for the unexpected splits or crashes, to keep himself protected.  There were rumors in the media that maybe George Hincapie, his friend and former teammate, may have forewarned him, but I am more apt to think he was just paying attention.  His rise from 10th to 3rd is not so much significant today, as it may be to tomorrow’s team time trial.

The winner of the team time trial, barring accident, will come from either Saxobank, Columbia-HTC, Garmin-Chipotle, or Astana.  Each are strong, disciplined and prepared for this event.  Each team has much to gain now, and in the long run.  And each team is keen to put some serious time between their leaders and their rivals.   Saxobank should be motivated to defend Cancellara’s yellow jersey, which he might actually keep even if they don’t win.  With a 33 second cushion in the overall standings, his team could potentially lose, and still maintain the lead.  More importantly, it is an opportunity for Andy and Frank Schleck to gain back some of the time lost on Stage One to Alberto Contador, and put themselves in a prime position to be the main challengers to the crown.

For Columbia-HTC, a win could potentially put Tony Martin into the yellow jersey, from his 2nd place spot he currently holds.  It would also strengthen their status of perhaps being the dominant team thus far.  I am still not convinced that they will do anything in the overall, save perhaps for a lower top-ten position for Kim Kirchen in the long run, but if you can’t win the overall title or emerge victorious in the high mountains, there is certainly nothing wrong with sweeping up just about everything else. With the white and green jersey’s right now, two stage wins, and a second place in the team standings, they are doing a pretty good job of that.

Garmin-Chipotle will want to excel in the team time trial, because it is an event onto which they place alot of emphasis, and for Christian Vande Velde, it is an opportunity to steal a few seconds away from the Astana contingent, and move himself back up in the standings, into a place from which he can challenge in the upcoming weeks.  More especially, a good day may provide Vande Velde with the confidence that he really is a contender this year, while a poor result may keep him looking in from the outside.

Astana, on paper, has the strongest team, and Bruyneel knows how to win these events, with USPS/Discovery winning the last three team trials held from 2003-05.  What this potentially could mean, is that by the end of the day, Armstrong could potentially have the leader’s jersey, creating even more questions for the fans and the media, if not for the riders, over who is the leader of this team.  To address this, I am going to put on my Johan Bruyneel hat.  First of all, I don’t believe that today’s stage was a deliberate attempt by Armstrong to gain an edge on his teammate.  I believe that he rode smart, and Contador wasn’t paying attention.  For that matter, neither Kloeden nor Leipheimer were up front either.  In essence, as unique as today’s break was, Armstrong was really the only contender who made the break, with Contador, Leipheimer, Evans, Kloeden, Menchov, the Schlecks, and Sastre all finishing together in the back.  If Armstrong takes the lead, it would be great for him, but in the long run, I don’t necessarily see him becoming more of a real contender.  What it does create, though, is a situation where some of the other teams have to really respect him as a rider, because it may be one thing to give him 40 odd seconds on a flat stage, it becomes another issue to give him more time tomorrow, or in a time trial.  These small defecits add up quickly, and again, there is a reason why he won the Tour seven times. If I were a rider, I wouldn’t necessarily wanted to give him any edge, because as he gets more and more confident, he becomes more dangerous.  From an Astana perspective, though, I think that Bruyneel needs to keep insisting that Contador is the leader, but keep your options open on the road with Lance, Levi and Kloeden.  The Tour will be won in the mountains, and in the end, it still comes down to Astana vs. everyone else.

As far as predictions go for tomorrow, I will say that the top four teams will be separated by no more than 1 minute, and time gaps of 30-40 seconds are possible, assuming there are no mishaps.  At the top end of the classification, there will be some reshuffling, but the big losers of the day will likely be Evans, who could lose 2-3 minutes or more, with Menchov and Sastre also possibly losing a couple minutes to Contador.  I will go with the following order of finish:

1. Astana
2. Columbia-HTC 10-20 seconds
3. Garmin-Chipotle 20-30 seconds
4. Saxobank 30-40 seconds

I will say that Armstrong will take the jersey, but just barely.  It will be good for him, but it would also be good for them to unload it on the day or two afterwards.  I will also say here that I would not be too surprised to see Cancellera hold onto the jersey.  I am curious about his team, because while he has a huge engine, the time-trialling ability of some of the other riders like the Schlecks may be a bit suspect.  The answers over the leadership of Astana will only intensify in the media as the team creeps closer to the top of the classification, but in the end, the important thing is the time that they will put on their rivals, which will only provide more strategic options for the team when they hit the Pyrenees on the weekend.

Tour de France- Stage 2

With the excitement of the first stage of the Tour out of the way, today was a day to settle in for the long haul.  The stage profile was rolling in nature, and as expected, it welcomed a small breakaway of 4 riders, who stayed away long enough to get some early glory, before being reeled in by the sprinters teams shortly before the end of the stage. It was one of those days when the overall favorites just wanted to stay out of trouble, avoid the crashes or some stupid splits in the pack, and conserve their energy while others sought the glory of the stage win.

I’ll be honest, these days have become almost excrutiatingly predictable, especially early in the race, when most of the teams are at full strength and reasonably fresh.  Alot of this has to do with the race radios, with the directors keeping the riders informed of the splits, and allowing them to virtually control how far the breakaways are getting, and exactly when they need to work to close the gaps.  There is a controversy brewing over whether or not radios should be used, or if the riders should rely upon the motorcycles coming back to give splits, or just relying upon their own wits.  My feeling is this:  technology has changed the way you race, go with it.  It is not as if some teams have radios and others don’t, it’s just the reality of racing in the 21st century.  With that in mind, though, it does make stages like this morning, a bit on the predictable side, if not straight monotonous to watch.

Now, even though I sat through two-plus hours of coverage in which virtually nothing of substance happened, it was worth it, just to see the sprinters in action. Everyone predicted that Mark Cavendish would win today, and despite being the absolute favorite and having the pressure to perform, Cavendish made it look incredibly easy.  Team Columbia has mastered the lead-out train to perfection.  The Tour has seen a number of great sprinters throughout the years, but I can only remember one other team who had perfected the art of leading their rider out so well, and that was the Saeco team of the 90’s and early 2000’s, with Mario Cippolini, who was the dominant sprinter of his generation, if not the best of all time.  Cavendish is too young to be called the greatest, but I will say that between the four stages he won last year, and this morning’s victory, he has an extra gear that no one else has.  I have enjoyed previous years when there were four or five really good sprinters, each of whom could win on any given day, but at this rate, the other sprinters will keep riding for 2nd place, or waiting to see if Cavendish makes an error. Seeing him in full flight is a sight to behold.

I also want to acknowledge  the 2nd place for American Tyler Farrar in the sprint. He has been given alot of attention as one of the best young sprinters this spring, and at least today, he lived up to his reputation.  There have been precious few American sprinters, and with the exception of Fred Rodriguez, who has had moderate success, we have had none since Davis Phinney won two stages in the 1980s. It is interesting to note that despite all of the success the US has enjoyed in the general classification over the past two decades, we have not had any world class riders in this discipline.  It would be awesome to see Farrar take a stage, or challenge for the green jersey. Cavendish will be tough to beat, but he is one of the few to do so this year….here’s to hoping.

Predictably, nothing happened in the overall.  For the fan like me, looking at the overall, these are just the type of stages to get through.  I watch them to see the end result, and occasionally, there will be a breakaway that succeeds, or that contains a rider of note, or perhaps a split in the bunch which catches one of the favorites off guard.  That being said, looking at the overall, I realistically have to look to Tuesday for more of a shakeup.  Tomorrow, I’m guessing that Cavendish will have another go at it.  It will be interesting to see which teams put the work in tomorrow, and which one’s save a little bit for Tuesday instead. As they say, though…that’s why they ride the race.