I am pleased that perhaps more so than at any time in the last decade, we have witnessed a clean event. Of course, we have no means of knowing this any more than others, but what I saw on a daily basis was a lot more of the human frailties which makes the race seem more believable. Some of this was due to dumb luck, with key riders missing out on their chances to do overall battle due to crashes and injury, while other riders simply succumbed to the tortures of the race. It never ceases to amaze me that when the Tour course is announced, the stages may seem easy or demanding on paper, but it on the roads in battle when the tales of the Tour come alive. I was so pleased to see the level of drama which came about in the last week, when depending upon which day, or which stage, I thought for sure that a different rider was going to win the race overall. We saw a relatively obscure rider thrive on his courage and grit, in Thomas Voeckler, leading the race for eleven days, and really only losing the race on the penultimate climb of the Tour, when perhaps his reputation might have suggested that he would have lost the jersey in the early slopes of the Pyrenees. We saw Andy Schleck ride a gritty race, using his team and his skill to persevere through what might have been a historic breakaway over one of the hardest stages I have seen in over a decade, when 80% of the field finished over 20 minutes behind him, only to fall apart in 42.5 km worth of a time trial. Runner-up for a third straight year is nothing to sneeze at, but at some point, one has to wonder when he will put it together, and finally win won. Did he lose the Tour somewhere along the way, or was it simply taken by a better rider.

Of course, we saw the ups and downs of Alberto Contador, winner of the last six Grand Tours he has ridden. More so than any other rider in the peloton, I believe that his is the name who will ultimately make the most historical significance, and it is this overall class that suggests to me that while this may not be the last Tour he does not win, he still has more Tour de France titles under his belt. I believe that he rode this year with podium level fitness, albeit with some bad luck which left him in fifth place, but we did see a side of him that reminds us that he may still be the classiest rider on the circuit today. He never gave up, persevered through tough weather, crashes, and unfulfilled hopes. He attacked in a manner we have not seen in years, and he showed that he is human after all. Seeing him crack reminded me that he does have limits, and perhaps the Tour/Giro double may indeed be too much for the modern rider to win, especially given the short recovery in between on today’s calendar.

Today, I toast the champion, Cadel Evans. If Contador is perhaps the most dominant, at least at his best, Evans must be considered the most consistent, and the grittiest. At their peaks, Contador is a much better climber, and Evans is a marginally better time trial rider. It seems like a long time ago Evans was second, even if was just in 2007 and 2008, and but for just over 1:00 of cumulative time lost, Evans might have been winning his third career Tour. Evans rode a brilliant race, and made the sacrifices, especially in the mountains, to keep himself close to the Schleck brothers, and to the yellow jersey, to be able to put on a truly dominant ride in the time trial. This was Evans’ crowning achievement, and very clearly the ride that has been expected of him in the past. Realistically, he may not win again; I would still put my money on either Andy Schleck or Alberto Contador next year, but this was three solid weeks of absolutely no mistakes for Cadel Evans, and his victory was won by being the most complete rider in the race this year. Well deserved, and he will now go down as perhaps the second best rider of his generation.

It is important to understand that even without a real overall contender, this was a banner year for the Americans. We celebrated the existence of FOUR American teams, and a record ten starters and eight finishers. Three of the four teams were amongst the most dominant in the race. Garmin-Cervelo, had a solid presence from Day One until the end. They started with a victory in the team time trial, celebrated the first career stage win for Tyler Farrar (over Mark Cavendish), and saw a breakout performance by American rider, Tom Danielson, who finished 9^th, climbing with the best in the race, in his Tour de France debut. They also supported the yellow jersey for ten days for Norwegian Thor Hushovd, before ending up with a victory in the team competition. A true breakthrough for manager Jonathan Vaughters, who has built a reputation as running the cleanest team in the peloton.

Team HTC-Highroad only boasted two Americans, Tejay Van Garderen who wore the mountains jersey for one day, and workhorse Danny Pate, but they celebrated, count them “FIVE” more stage wins for Brit Mark Cavendish, who finally earned the green jersey, as officially the best sprinter of the year.

Team BMC boasted the Tour de France champion, and after a few cracks shown last year, demonstrated that they were truly up to the task, controlling the bunch when necessary, and showing that they knew how to ride in support of Cadel Evans. Leading the way, as has done for eight previous Tour de France winners, was veteran George Hincapie, who tied the record for Tour de France starts at sixteen. Despite all of the miles and years behind him, “Big George” is still going strong, and was an integral part of another Tour victory.

Interestingly enough, it was Team RadioShack,(the former Team Discovery/USPS) machine of Johan Bruyneel, who finally had a decade worth of Tours with little to now bad luck catch up with him. Despite having perhaps the most loaded team with overall contenders Andreas Kloden, Chris Horner and Levi Leipheimer, the RadioShack team may have just officially ended an era, riding a Tour with literally no distinction, save for having three of their four leaders leave the race due to crashes, and having their fourth suffer in the mountains, finishing well behind the leaders.

It will take a while for this Tour to really sink in. I didn’t root for Cadel Evans to win, but I salute his achievement. He has waited a long time, winning other significant races, but never coming through in the Grand Boucle. He earned this one, and by doing so, formally cemented his name amongst the absolute best in the history of the sport. Time will tell how this one stacks up with other great races, but for another year, we can celebrate the event for the beauty and drama that it created. I believe that over the course of the last three weeks, we witnessed sport at its best, testing the resolve, the strength, the skill, and the mental energies of all of the riders. We didn’t see a dominant patron this year, but we saw a worthy winner emerge from a tight dual. We saw new faces emerge, while others confirmed their reputations, and still others perhaps suggested that their best days are in the past.

We raise our glasses, to say “Vive le Tour”, announcing with firm resolve that despite the bruises absorbed by the sport of cycling over the recent years, this race is still well and alive.

Now, I will say that I have never been the biggest Cadel Evans fan, but I will say unequivocally that he has deserved this win. After a couple of near-misses in 2007 and 2008, he has demonstrated that he was the most complete rider this year. He rode strongly and smartly on the flat stages, consistently amongst the leaders on the hardest climbs, a fearless descender, and the best (contender) in the time trial today. His team, BMC, showed new-found strength, and 25 years after bringing the first US team to the Tour (7-Eleven), team president Jim Ochowicz finally is coaching a Tour de France champion. They are only the second US team to have the race winner, after the US Postal/Discovery Channel had eight wins in nine years from 1999-2008.

Today’s time trial held a certain level of suspense coming into the stage, with three riders separated by only 57 seconds. Andy Schleck might be the most talented climber this year, and his 60 km stage winning break away this past Thursday might have been the most aggressive move of the race, but Evans’ ride in the time trial was the most important performance, netting him a title that has eluded him since he broke onto the scene nearly a decade ago. As he is 33 years old, realistically this might be one of the last chances for Evans to win the Tour, and he definitely made the most of it. I will say that he is unequivocally a worthy champion, as his ride today totally took the suspense out of the race fairly quickly. Evans started quickly, and by mid-stage, he had made up the 57 seconds he trailed Schleck, and he continued to pile on the pressure, putting on a performance that was worthy of the title he was about to win. Of the contenders, he was one of the few to truly excel today.

Alberto Contador is destined to finish fifth this year, and did not win a stage, but he did remind us, even today, that he is a fighter. He also attacked the time trial, and gained time on both the Schlecks and on Thomas Voeckler, but not enough to ultimately put him on the podium. I still can’t help but think of the first stage losses, which ultimately cost him a shot at the podium. I will concede that at no point this year did he appear to be on Evans’ level, and I believe that this was clearly due to the fatigue of the Giro d’Italia win last month. It was the first time in years that he has appeared human, but certainly this is not the last we will see of him as a Tour contender. Assuming that he is not suspended due to his appealed drug test, we could see another exciting Tour where we have Evans, Schleck and Contador doing battle again on equal terms. I don’t know if this dents Contador’s legacy; I still think he has an opportunity to win more Tours, and at least equal the five wins of Merckx, Hinault, Anquetil and Indurain, but it is hard to say if he will win the eight that will be needed to beat Armstrong’s record. He is still the dominant stage racer of his era, but this result does indicate that there are certainly other champions of this era, a situation we did not see during the reigns of Indurain or Armstrong.

I should feel bad for both of the Schlecks, especially Andy, for losing so much time in only 42 km. After three weeks of posturing and attacking in the mountains, and surviving the dangerous sprints and transition stages, it is a shame to see them lose so much time in this manner. Perhaps down the road, they (or I) will revisit the race as a whole and strive to see where they might have gained time on Evans but didn’t. On the other hand, it is conceivable that they lost because Evans was both better rested than Schleck, who literally killed himself to gain time in the Alps, or because Evans was the most well-rounded.

The race doesn’t win until the peloton crosses the line on the Champs Elysees tomorrow, but the general classification was finalized today. It has been a good race, and in the coming days/weeks, I will seeks to consider how this race stacks up to others in history, and indeed the proper perspective that I will have on Evans as a winner, Schleck as a three-time runner up (will he ever win it?), Contador as an also-ran, and other riders who made reputations, or so their hopes go up in flames. Tonight, though, I will rest knowing that the race has been decided, in solid fashion.

This race is special because of the riders. I did criticize them in the Pyrenees for riding too conservatively, and I’m not sure if that was because they were being defensive in nature, or if they knew what they were doing in terms of saving themselves for this week, which has been brutal. We are really to the point where maybe 20-30 riders are actually “racing” anymore, while the rest of the field are literally trying to survive to the line each day. I will say that I marvel at their powers of recovery, but I suppose it is important to note that each rider does recover differently, and the cumulative efforts given in this race, if not in other parts of the season (i.e.: at the Giro d’Italia) should not be discounted in terms of seeing how fresh certain riders may be at the end of a three week race.

After running out of gas yesterday, I really didn’t know what to expect from Alberto Contador today. When he is at his best, he is a marvelous rider to watch; a freak of nature who is head and shoulders above the rest, especially on the steepest climbs. We have seen it in the past six Grand Tours that he has entered, and subsequently won. Unfortunately, this entire race has not gone his way. He dealt with crashes and delays in the first week, a lack of form in the Pyrenees, and then up and down performances in the first three days in the Alps. I will say, though, that I respect him more today, than perhaps at any other point in his career, because on a day when he seemed to be the most human, and thus, the most fallible, he put on a show of aggression that I have never seen from him in the Tour. He attacked essentially from the foot of the first climb, pushing it all the way to the top of the Galibier, in a move that would have seemed suicidal on most days. After being caught on the descent, he regrouped and attacked again at the foot of the Alpe d’Huez. I will concede that they only let him go because he was no longer a real threat on the general classification, but he showed a sense of panache and courage that we have rarely seen in recent years. Even though he realistically would not challenge for the win, he did show that he would fire every bullet left in his pistol to try and make something happen. I felt bad for him to not win the stage, getting caught in the last 3 km, but it was nice for him to have some pride and to truly empty the tank in order to show what a real champion is made of. This was not his year, but he should not be counted out in the future. He may wish to re-think the Giro-Tour double, as it is painfully evident in recent years that riders who challenge in the Giro seldom have good form in July, compared to those who do not race two Grand Tours.

After 10 days in yellow, Thomas Voeckler’s dream of winning, or even of finishing on the podium, effectively ended on the last climb. I will say that I am impressed with his valiant effort. The French should be proud to have this man represent their country. He will probably not finish on the podium, being over 2 minutes behind both Schlecks and Cadel Evans, and there is a chance that he will get beaten by an on-form Contador, if he can. Both Schlecks and Cadel Evans demonstrated that despite their fatigue from yesterday and the chase today, they are the best three men in this year’s race. It is only fitting that they will battle it out in the time trial tomorrow. I’m not going to predict a winner, but I will say that Frank Schleck will most likely finish 3^rd by the end of the day. Many people are predicting that Evans will take the 58 seconds he needs to win over Andy Schleck, and steal the win from him. These two men have essentially done nothing wrong this Tour, and both deserve to win. I will say that there are certainly instances when Evans is a good minute or two better than Schleck in the time trial, but I am not so sure about tomorrow. Schleck demonstrated last year when he was only 8 seconds behind Contador that he can ride a competent time trial, losing only 31 seconds. Even though he did not win the race, he showed that he will not roll over. On the flipside, Evans has twice been in this position, in 2007 to Contador and in 2008 to Carlos Sastre. On both occasions, he was considered the superior time trialist, and on both occasions, he ended up in 2^nd place overall, both times with final margins of less than one minute. I am going to say that the end result will be within 15 seconds, perhaps even the smallest margin in history, but I cannot say who will end up the winner.

As far as the other competitions go, I am pleased. Samuel Sanchez has been a great attacker in the mountains, and to win the king of mountains is a good substitute for not having a higher G.C. position. He is guaranteed a spot on the podium in Paris. I am also happy to see Pierre Rolland take the white jersey. While I did not root for him to take the stage today away from Contador, it has not escaped my attention that he was Voeckler’s most loyal and capable domestique through the Pyrenees and Alps, and has shown that perhaps the French have another star of the future to consider. The green jersey will be settled in Paris. I am also ecstatic that Garmin looks to be locking up the team G.C. Tom Danielson definitely deserves his top 10 placing, and with the team prize in their sights, Ryder Hesjedal and Christian Vande Velde, both who were disappointed with off days in the Pyrenees to ruin their GC chances, have ridden very solidly to take places in the top 18 overall. This will be a fair finish, and to have the American team on the podium will be a distinct pleasure, and a boon for American cycling.

The race will essentially be decided in the next twelve hours or so. I am looking forward to another classic finish. I am curious to see who has what left in the gas tank. I am looking forward to the battle for the yellow jersey and the podium. I am looking forward to the inevitable re-arranging of some lesser placings, to see who ends up where. I am curious to see if Alberto Contador still has the pride, and the legs, to challenge tomorrow, and see if he can’t move up to fourth, realistically his best possible placing. It is this suspense that has made this a great Tour, and which will also keep me riveted to my seat tomorrow, until the end.

I said yesterday that Alberto Contador needed to escape on the penultimate climb, in order to make up the time needed on the Schlecks, Cadel Evans and Thomas Voeckler, and to put himself into a prime position to win. I also said that Andy Schleck looked vulnerable and that the Leopard-Trek team was suffering by not committing to one leader. After today, I will concede that I was wrong. Andy Schleck went out on one of the boldest moves that we have seen in the Tour in a long, long time. I have a hard time remembering when an overall contender attacked during a mountain stage with two giant climbs to go, 60km from the finish, with fierce headwinds, and not only was given the green light to go, but was able to build up a lead of over FOUR MINUTES, before the chase started to make inroads. I don’t know if Schleck will win the Tour this year…I think that Evans still has a major card to play in the time trial, but Schleck certainly made his bid today, and he deserves to win with a move like this.

Evans is another rider who earned his stripes today, and perhaps showed that he is the most consistent rider in the race, deserving of the win, or at least of another podium spot. When Schleck stretched his escape to four minutes, and when the other contenders didn’t (couldn’t) contribute to the chase, Evans took it upon himself to lower the gap. He could have sat back, played the tactical game, and told Voeckler or Contador to chase, but he saw that this would not have helped him. He is still a minute behind Schleck now, but with a good time trial, a minute is doable. Could we be headed up to a repeat of either 2007 or 2008, when he went into the final time trial, expecting to grab the lead, but coming up just precious seconds short?

Today, when two thirds of the field died, it was expected that Thomas Voeckler would cede his yellow jersey. In past years, he would have been a member of the same grupetto as the bulk of the field, but for each day that he says he is surprised to still be in the lead, he digs down a bit more. I do not blame him for not chasing much….I don’t think he could have. I suspect he was so far behind his limits, that I have to wonder what more he might have tomorrow, but in the end, he still has a 15 second lead over Andy Schleck, and over a minute in hand over Frank Schleck and Cadel Evans. Tomorrow’s ascent to Alpe d’Huez is going to be difficult, but he has shown an ability to dig in, and I still consider him a candidate for victory.

Clearly, I was wrong about Contador’s form. He said after the stage that his knee was bothering him, and that he ran out of fuel, but to be fair, he really didn’t look good at all during the stage. He was consistently sitting in the middle to the back of the pack, and when Schleck attacked, he didn’t (or couldn’t respond). This is not the Contador we are used to seeing, and I will say that I was a bit disappointed, because I waited for a long time to see a trademark Contador counter attack, but in the end, it didn’t come. To see him come unglued in the last 3 km was a bit sad, because it meant that he was going to lose serious time not just to Andy Schleck, but to the other leaders, thus cementing the fact that not only would he not win this year, but that he most likely will not make the podium, either. I won’t say that he can’t do anything at Alpe d’Huez or in the time trial to improve upon his position, but in an odd way, I feel like if he is going to lose the race, I would rather see it this way, with him trying and just running out of gas, rather than by the amount of time he lost because of a crash. It is clear that the Giro last month took a lot out of him, and perhaps re-enforced the idea that in modern times, it is nearly impossible to maintain good form for both races in a single season. The riders who are freshest are winning this week, while Contador has really struggled since Day One. I do hope that he can recover for some exploit in the next few days, to show that he is still the champion we expect him to be, and that he is not going to collapse into oblivion. If nothing else, I certainly believe that we have not seen the last of Alberto Contador as a Grand Tour champion, rather he will have to go up against riders in the future who also can claim to be a Tour champion, hopefully creating and sustaining a historic rivalry for this era.

I have no idea how the riders will recover from this cruel day, and then race up Alpe d’Huez on Friday. I really don’t know when I have seen everyone seem SO shattered after a stage. Today took everything out of the field as a whole, and there are still three stages to go, including a mountain top finish and a time trial. The race is not over, and several key prizes are still to be fought. It is good to see Garmin-Cervelo to be leading in the team classification. If they can repeat their success of today, placing three riders in the top 12, they should be able to defend it in the time trial. It would be good to see them take this in Paris, given the success they have had in various times throughout the race. The white jersey is still up for grabs, with only 33 seconds separating Rein Taramae (Cofidis) and Pierre Rolland (Voeckler’s sheppard through the mountains). The mountain jersey is separated by only two points, between Stage 15 winner Jelle Vandendert and Samuel Sanchez, with Andy Schleck only four points back. I think that this might ultimately fall to Schleck, who is most likely to gain some points at the summit tomorrow afternoon. The green jersey is now only separated by 15 points, between Mark Cavendish, who was docked an interesting 20 points today, for being in a group that missed the cut off by 2 minutes today, and Juan Joaquin Rojas. Realistically, outside of the sprint tomorrow morning, this is a competition that is destined to be decided on the Champs-Elysees on Sunday (I still have my money on Cavendish). The yellow jersey will be decided on Saturday in the time trial, and I will admit that I am excited by the prospect of another race that is coming down to the final stages, with still four riders who realistically can win this race. We have seen a few of these types of races in recent years (i.e.: 2007, 2008 and 2010), as opposed to most of the Armstrong and Indurain years, when the race was generally decided well in advance of the final weekend.

We have waited for better than two weeks for a day like this, when a single rider made a real bid for victory. I don’t know if this was a pre-meditated move, decided upon weeks ago, or if it came because of instincts in the middle of the race, but it has allowed Andy Schleck to potentially write his name on an exclusive list of Tour de France winners (and potentially dooming Cadel Evans to ANOTHER 2^nd place), and doing it in the grand style befitting of the great champions of old.

The one thing I wanted to see, in light of yesterday’s finish, was how or if Alberto Contador would go on the attack, and if there would be any effect on the overall standings. I was impressed yesterday how strong he looked, compared to last week, and his refreshed ability to attack the Schlecks and Thomas Voeckler, even if it was just to gain time. I have to be honest….I want to see Alberto Contador win this race. I think that his “underdog” status since the first day losses have made him into a more likeable character in this drama, and it is forcing him to race in an aggressive manner which has not always been present in some of his Grand Tour wins. I realize that as of tonight, Cadel Evans probably should be considered to be the favorite to win in Paris, because of his lead of almost 2 minutes over Contador, and due to the fact that realistically, he should either match him in the time trial, if not take time out of him.

The Schlecks, in my opinion, have taken themselves out of the race for the lead by not committing to a real leader. They are racing, it seems, so as to support each other. Unfortunately, as each mountain stage passes, they are missing out on opportunities. A week ago, they really had chances to get time on Contador, when his form was sketchy, and they were too passive. Now, I really believe that they will be on the defensive tomorrow, when Contador is at least their equal, if not superior to them both on form. I do think that if Voeckler can keep from completely imploding in the next two days, both of the Schlecks could miss out on the podium, or even get pushed out of the top five, if Basso and Sanchez ride well.

A perfect scenario for tomorrow’s race, which is one of the most brutal I have ever seen, containing three Hors Categorie climbs, would be for Contador to go on the attack during the second climb, not on the last one. He needs to try to shake Evans loose, and get some real time on him. If he can shake Evans, he is most likely also putting real time into Voeckler, and will quite possibly be losing at least one of the Schlecks. He needs to approach the race as if this was the day that he HAS to make up his time, because if he comes up short, he still has Alpe d’Huez on Friday to perhaps grab a bit more of a cushion. He needs to take out three minutes onto Evans in the next two days to give himself a comfortable cushion on Saturday. I want Contador to win, but perhaps more especially, I don’t want him to lose out due to the time lost on Day One, which was due to others crashing, and not necessarily due to poor form. If he can take this time back, he will indeed be a worthy champion. If he doesn’t take serious time from Evans and the Schlecks tomorrow, he will have a hard time winning this year. This is what the Tour is really all about.

The course itself was interesting in nature, in that it was predominantly uphill for most of the stage. There was only one categorized climb, in the last 20km, but the course profile was challenging enough to limit the potential of an escape for many of the tired members of the peloton. With 14 of the 20 teams still without a win in this year’s Tour, and with the opportunities for a successful escape dwindling, this stage was supposedly destined to bring glory for a lesser rider, not in the overall picture.

The breakaway of the day actually took more than half of the race to form, as various groups attempted to escape, before the leading teams let them go. Garmin-Cervelo did well to place two very strong riders, Ryder Hesjedal (7^th overall last year) and Thor Hushovd, who won a transitional stage through the Pyrenees last week, after wearing the leader’s jersey for a week. For most of the race, it seemed likely as though one of these two men would have the advantage, both in terms of strength, and from a tactical standpoint. The race was made even more difficult by the deteriorating weather, which transitioned from overcast at the start, to cold and rainy at the end of the stage. The Garmin rode with excellence, and escaped off the front with Edvald Boasson-Hagen, who won a sprint stage early in the race. I was impressed with the teamwork, and ultimately with the strength of Thor Hushovd, who has now won two stages, to go along with his week in the yellow jersey. What impresses me about Hushovd is that he has transitioned from someone who started his career as a field sprinter, winning the green jersey a couple years back, to being one of the strongest all-around riders on all terrain, even if he cannot climb well enough on the highest passes to contend overall.

What made the race for me, though, was the sudden attack made by Alberto Contador, 5 km from the top of the final climb. I won’t say that he won the Tour today, but for the first time this year, the favorites finally attacked one another, and real gaps were finally made. Contador only gained 18 seconds on Frank Schleck, and actually lost 3 seconds to his breakaway partner, Cadel Evans, but he also put in 1:06 to Andy Schleck, mostly on the final descent. The attack was significant not just for the time gained, but as a reminder that when the roads go up, Contador is the best in the business. Today really demonstrated that Andy Schleck, specifically, is definitely vulnerable, and with only 39 seconds in hand, should not feel comfortable going into the time trial. Frank Schleck either has to sacrifice himself for his brother, or make a concerted effort on his own, because with almost two minutes in hand, he is currently the better of the two Schlecks. Contador made several concerted attacks, until he got the gap on Voeckler (who looked better than both of the Schlecks, and Basso, as well). Today also demonstrated that Cadel Evans may very well be in the driver’s seat. He looked really strong, and had no problem with staying with Contador for the 5 km on the climb, and certainly looked even better on the descent.

The race has not been won or lost, today, although some mental messages have been sent. Contador is getting better by the day, and is showing why he is the defending champion. He may be the one rider who can attack from the bottom of a long climb and keep the pace long enough to drop Evans or anyone else he might need to, in order to gain enough time. I believe that today, Contador definitely rode himself back onto the podium, but to get on the top, he definitely has to get 2:00 back on Evans, but he should have enough room to overtake both of the Schlecks in the time trial.

I do wonder if Leopard-Trek will be reassessing their team tactics. They rode through the Pyrenees in a manner which allowed them to burn off most of the field, and limit the final field to the contending group. Unfortunately, they showed that when it was down to just the two of them, the Schlecks did not have the legs to make any attacks stick. I would put the burden more on Europcar and BMC, and save more of the team’s strength for the final climb, to help them attack and push the pace when they really need it.

Tomorrow’s race profile is not the most challenging, or should not be ideal for big time gaps, but there is also a short climb near the end, followed by a steep descent. I have to believe that the Schlecks won’t make the same mistake two days in a row, and let Contador get away, but in the same sense, I also have to wonder if they have the legs to stop him if he did go for another small gain. Contador is smart, from the standpoint that he understands that he does not have to make up all of his time lost in one big attack; time gained in smaller increments over several stages still does the job.

After waiting for two weeks, I can finally say that I feel like the race is on!

Going into this race, I said that there were a few riders of an elite class, with Alberto Contador leading the group, followed distinctly by Andy Schleck. I saw Frank Schleck on a slightly lower level, and I had question marks about Cadel Evans and certainly about Ivan Basso. After a difficult two weeks, marked with crashes and tough Pyrenean stages, we are in a situation where the picture is a bit muddled. Admittedly, the leaders (especially led by the Leopard-Trek team) have effectively gotten rid of the rest of the field, but realistically, have created a situation where there are seven riders who can still win this race, and no one seems to have either the ability or the inclination to really dig down to get rid of each other.

I have never seen two summit finishes, following brutal courses including Thursday’s finish at Luz Ardiden and Saturday’s trip up the Plateau de Beille, where the leaders genuinely spent the entire ascent watching each other, but not making any concerted efforts to drop one another. It was frustrating to watch, because even though the Alps and a time trial loom in a very challenging final week, I felt like the challengers were wasting opportunities to gain time on one another. I will acknowledge that that this race may be turned around on one stage this year, perhaps up Alep d’hôte, but unless every wants to let the race be decided in the time trial, there needs to be some fireworks.

I will consider assess the challengers as they stand, limiting this group to the top seven, all within four minutes of the leader.

1. Thomas Voeckler- Even Voeckler will admit that he never expected to be riding in the yellow jersey after the Pyrenees, especially having given virtually none of his lead away. He has 1:49 over Frank Schleck, and 2:06 ahead of Cadel Evans. He also has four minutes in hand over Alberto Contador, with Andy Schleck, Ivan Basso and Samuel Sanchez in between. Voeckler took prime advantage of the leaders’ hesitancy to prolong any attack on Luz Ardiden and Plateau de Beille, meeting each of the attacks and staying with them. He has been ably assisted by teammate Pierre Rolland, but oddly enough, his team has not had to bear much of the responsibility of leading the race, with the sprinters teams doing so on the flat stages, and Leopard-Trek taking the bulk of the responsibility during the mountain stages. I don’t know that he will be able to survive through three stages of the Alps, but if the others decide to mark each other, without trying to distance Voeckler, he could be riding to a podium spot. I won’t say right now that he can win it all, but the more mountain kilometers which pass by with him in yellow, the greater his chance of victory overall.
2. Frank Schleck- I really don’t understand the tactics employed by Leopard Trek, where they push the pace until the field is just whittled down to a few select riders, only to see Frank & Andy attempt these short little attacks, and then sit up. I have to wonder which Schleck brother is actually being considered the leader. Right now, with Frank ahead, I think he actually has a better chance of contending than Andy, as he is a marginally better time trialist, but Andy is usually a better climber. I really believe that one of the two Schlecks needs to sacrifice his own chances to help the other. Stopping and starting attacks will not get it done. The good thing is that they do have a lead over Contador, but they need to put in a couple minutes on Evans, which may be difficult.
3. Cadel Evans- Might be in the best spot of all the serious contenders. He is returning to his best form of a few years ago, and has ridden smartly, and aggressively when necessary. He has a clear advantage over both Schlecks in the time trial, but still needs to take back at least a minute from Voeckler, in my opinion to feel comfortable about his ability to overtake him in the time trial. He is still not the most explosive climber, a la Contador or Andy Schleck, but has displayed great form. He is definitely going to be there until the end. Who knows…may be this is his year after all.
4. Andy Schleck- (See Frank Schleck above)- I think that Andy has a lot to lose if he does not go on the attack in the Alps. I would think that he needs Frank to attack in a way that he can counter against Evans, Contador and Basso (and Voeckler?). Andy has put all of his eggs in this basket this year, and if he does not win it, or if he loses to anyone besides Contador, he would have to consider this to be a missed opportunity. I don’t know if he didn’t attack much on Saturday because he couldn’t, or because he was unwilling to. I know that he kept “checking” Contador, but realistically, he also needs to focus on Evans and Voeckler or he could find himself not only out of the yellow jersey, but off of the podium.
5. Ivan Basso- I will admit that I must stand corrected on my assessment of Basso; he has truly shown himself to be at his best form this year. He has ridden strongly in the mountains, and has shown an ability to follow the best. He realistically also needs to attack some, though, to get some time back from Evans and Voeckler, but he should beat both of the Schlecks in the time trial. He has won big races in the past, and perhaps this year could be one of vindication for him, but it may also be that this is his last big chance to contend in the Tour.
6. Samuel Sanchez- Sanchez is one of the most talented riders in the world, but is in an awkward spot. He can climb well enough to make a bid for the podium, but would realistically lose out in the time trial to Evans, Basso, Contador and perhaps even one or both of the Schlecks. He is too high on the GC to be given any more leeway on any breaks. If I were him, I would focus my energy on the mountains jersey, where he is only 2 pts away from the lead of Jelle Vandedert. He is not going to lose much ground on the overall, but probably isn’t going to gain much either. The climbing competition may be his best bet for continued glory.
7. Alberto Contador- The defending champion is clearly not at his best, but I think he is getting better. He definitely looked more spry on Saturday than on Thursday on the last climb. Time will tell if he is healthy, but he is clearly feeling the effects of his Giro win in June. He really needs to be in a position to respond to a Frank or Andy Schleck attack, and then counter attack on his own. Alep d’hôte might be his best bet, when the climb is at its steepest. If he can come back to win, this might be his best, because for the most part, he has not lost the minutes to the Schlecks and to Evans based on form, rather on the bad luck from Day One. I will say that he has shown in the past that he has the ability to get away, but dropping the Schlecks and Evans will take a concerted effort, and not just a few attempts. He is still the one rider who everyone will watch, and will need to fight for everything he gets. He might be the one rider who can turn this race around in a single stage, but he might want to consider attacking on both Thursday and Friday, to try and get time back on all of his challengers, because realistically, he needs to take back at least a minute of his deficit to each of the Schlecks, and maybe more on Basso and Evans.

I don’t want to predict the final podium before the Alps, but I would say that from my perspective, Voeckler and Evans are in the leading positions, with Contador, the Schlecks and Basso fighting behind.

Before the race re-starts, I will say that I believe that this will be the year the Mark Cavendish wins the green jersey. He will gain serious points on Gilbert in Paris, and I don’t believe that Gilbert will win enough in the Alps to offset Cavendish’s gains. Gilbert will make it interesting, but I believe that he will come up just a bit short.

From an American standpoint, I am thrilled to see Tom Danielson riding so well. I have waited for years to see him final be entered in the race, and is showing that he is realistically, the “best of the rest”. I am eager to see what he can do in the Alps. I know that he is not really an overall threat, but if he can conserve his energy, he may even be able to move up a spot or two and solidify his spot in the top 10, especially given his prowess in the time trial. From an American team standpoint, we are enjoying plenty of success, with Garmin-Cervelo having the lead for a week with Hushovd and three stage wins, HTC with four wins for Cavendish, and BMC keeping Evans in contention with the greatest of skill. I am sorry to see RadioShack’s performance, and maybe their bad luck is really a decade-worth of good luck catching up with them. I am disappointed with Levi Leipheimer’s performance in the mountains. I don’t know if he hasn’t recovered from his crashes, or perhaps suffering from a lack of morale, after losing half of his team. I hope to see him at least attempt to win a stage later in the week, but sitting 25^th overall, his best days in the Tour de France may well be past him.

In conclusion, as frustrating as it was during the Pyrenees to see the contenders mark each other instead of really showing what they could do, it is making for an exciting race into the Alps. Voeckler, if he were to pull off the win, would probably be the greatest upset in the history of the race, and it would serve the Schlecks, Contador and Evans right for letting him stick around. The Schlecks and Contador have some attacking to do before the time trial, or Evans or Basso is going to win. It is my understanding that the weather is supposed to be poor this week, with some rain and possibly snow. I don’t want to see any crashes change the outcome of the race, but I do enjoy seeing the riders fight the elements, adding to the drama of what has already been an unpredictable race.

From an overall standpoint, it is obvious that some of the contenders have fallen by the wayside, but I’m not sure that we have lost too many people who would have ultimately affected the podium. I think Chris Horner might have been the best of the wounded contenders, and might have finished in the top five. Van Den Broeck also looked good before crashing out, and his absence might be felt in the mountains, but at his level of experience, he was more apt to follow the moves than to initiate any lasting attack. Wiggins, in my mind, was a big question mark, because he really hasn’t done that much since his 4th place finish two years ago, his victory in this year’s Dauphine Libere notwithstanding. It is ironic that Saturday’s stage was the last one that Alexandre Vinokourov will likely contest in his career, but it featured a very bold yet decisive attack on the last climb. Even though he was ultimately caught, this was his signature move, and as much as I detest some of the things he did (i.e.: doping, his power struggle within Astana), he was a gutsy rider who ultimately should be remembered as much for his aggressive style of riding, especially at a time when favorites tend to sit and wait for the race to come to them, rather than gambling on an attack. Jani Brajkovic was never really a true contender, but his absence does hurt the RadioShack plans, particularly in terms of the team classification goals.

I’m going to state that in my eyes, Alberto Contador is the favorite, at least until he starts to lose time in the mountains. He is not in an ideal position, having given up 1:41 to Cadel Evans, and 1:30 to Andy Schleck. He has hit the ground several times, and is actually expressing concern over some knee soreness. While he has shown a willingness to attack on a couple of the uphill finishes, he has not yet demonstrated the ability to fly away and gain serious time. That being said, he has still won three of these Tours, and has earned my respect for being the best, until that title is taken from him. He hasn’t lost time due to poor form, just bad luck and crashes that were no fault of his own. To be fair, though, both Evans and the Schleck brothers have had very easy weeks. They have stayed at the front, haven’t had to endure any crashes, and have strong teams willing to work for them. Andy Schleck may have the best advantage of them all, in that he can send his brother up the road, forcing Evans and Contador to chase, setting himself up for a counter attack. Unfortunately, he is a much weaker time trialist than either Evans or Contador. He will need probably 2-3 minutes on both of them to feel comfortable going into the 20^th stage. Evans has looked good, too…almost like a patron of the bunch, never straying far from the front, and being aggressive when there was potential time to be made. My only concern is whether or not he can maintain his form for three weeks. He and his team have definitely done some work this week, and I have to wonder if this might take some of the pop out of his legs. That being said, I believe that in some order, we will most likely be seeing Contador, Andy Schleck and Cadel Evans in some order on the podium. People still talk a bit about Ivan Basso mounting a challenge, but I don’t buy it. He has done nothing this year (or this race), to suggest that he is a serious challenger.

As for the Americans, it has been an interesting week. Garmin has had a fantastic week, defending the yellow jersey for seven days, winning the team time-trial and Tyler Farrar nabbing a stage win. Christian Vande Velde seems to be smarting a little bit, but Tom Danielson has been strong. Since losing time on the stage 1 crash, Danielson has ridden consistently and finished with the favorites group on the uphill finish on Sunday, resting in 13^th place overall. Given his past experience, he is someone who can ride himself, fairly anonymously into the top 10, which would be a fantastic finish for him. He tends to struggle on the last climb of a long day in the mountains, but should be able to follow most of the other contenders, save for Contador/Schlecks. Levi Leipheimer has lost unfortunate time, and is not going to contend for the podium. Fortunately, I believe that he is reasonably healthy, and could still make his way back up to the top 10. If he is climbing well, he can follow most of the better climbers, and follow it up with a good time trial, it could lead to a decent result. It is unclear what will happen between him and Kloden, in that Kloden apparently has as bad back, which again puts RadioShack leadership into question. I would still like to see them go after the team classification with these two and Haimar Zubeldia, but it also is becoming clear that this Tour may not be going their way. It may also be fair to say that after a decade of being the top program in the US (as US Postal, or Discovery Channel…or even under Astana), this team may be declining a bit, and forced to take a backseat to Garmin or perhaps even BMC.

In the green jersey competition, Philippe Gilbert is looking really strong. I don’t know how he will do in the high mountains, which are not really his forte, but with Van Den Broeck out of the race, he will have the team at his disposal. He may still be strong enough to fight for the intermediate points, and leave the mountains with a lead that Cavendish, Rojas and Hushovd cannot reasonably expect to challenge.

I do hope that Tuesday and Wednesday are reasonably uneventful, in terms of crashes. I don’t like seeing riders knocked out due to injury, rather the Tour is at its most special when the absolute best riders in the world are fighting each other, struggling to gain an edge, and going mano a mano. I’m looking forward to the battles in the Pyrenees, when the best truly put their cards on the table, and we get to see who are the contenders and who are the pretenders (sorry Thomas Voeckler, enjoy your yellow jersey for a few days, because I don’t think you will still have it at the top of Luz Ardiden).

Until then……

My personal thoughts over the last four stages (sorry to not have written earlier), have surrounded the plights of RadioShack. Every other American team has been able to celebrate this week, with Garmin-Cervelo winning the team time trial, having Tyler Farrar win his first ever sprint stage, and keeping Thor Hushovd in the yellow jersey for a week, Team HTC celebrating two stage wins from Mark Cavendish and a gutsy stage-long break which netted Tejay Van Garderen the climbers jersey, and BMC riding strongly in protection of Cadel Evans, who has won a stage and has remained just one second behind Hushovd all week. RadioShack probably had the strongest overall potential of all of these teams, and after a decent team time trial, had kept their four big guns (Americans Chris Horner and Levi Leipheimer, German Andreas Kloden, and Slovenian Jani Brajkovic) within ten seconds of the lead through the first few stages, and could dream of strong rides in the mountains, chasing both the podium and the team classification of another year.

The stages on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday were NOT supposed to shape the race, but unfortunately, the race doesn’t recognize the plans of the teams, but it takes victims when it can. Wednesday saw Jani Brajkovic in a ditch on the side of the road, a victim of a crash that came about just after the mid-race sprint, an interesting twist to this year’s race for the green jersey, but perhaps serving more to cause accidents as those riders who don’t want to take part get mixed in with those who are. Brajkovic became the first major casualty of the race, with a concussion and multiple abrasions. This was sad to see, because he was decently positioned, and his fall was not his fault. I comforted myself, though, that of the four RadioShack leaders, he was probably the one with the least chance of really challenging in the high mountains.

On Thursday, though, on the rainy roads near the finish, Levi Leipheimer hit the deck, again not so much due to bad positioning, as to bad luck, hitting a guard rail as the pack sped into the last 5Km of the race. While he was not seriously hurt, his fall came at a terrible time in the race. He fell at the 4.3km mark, which was about just before the 3 km zone which would have guaranteed that he would not lose time, but instead, he was not able to get back on, and ended up losing almost a minute to the favorites. It is sad, because his losses were not due to a lack of form; rather, they were due to bad luck. Had he fallen 2 minutes later, or perhaps even 10 km sooner, he might have caught back onto the back of the pack, and not lost silly time.

Friday’s stage, perhaps the flattest of the race, saw two riders with top-10 aspirations crash out of the race. The first one was Team Sky’s Bradley Wiggins, who broke his collarbone. I was sorry to see him go, because while I am not sure that I really thought he was a real challenger, he definitely seems like a classy individual, and could have made a difference in the race. The second rider to see his race end was Chris Horner, whose crash truly broke my heart, because he is a rider who I believed is plucky enough to have ridden in to the top 5 in the race by Paris. He ended up with a concussion and broken nose. To make matters worse, Leipheimer was caught up behind another mid-race crash that split the pack into two groups of 80, losing another 3:06 on a day when there should have been no splits and when the favorites should have just been biding their time, waiting for the mountains to come.

In the end, RadioShack has seen its overall cards shuffled from four aces to one; Andreas Kloden seems to have been the only one who has not hit the deck, and who has continuously been able to ride up front and stay out of trouble. It may be that Levi Leipheimer has good legs, but I can’t tell if he has had bad luck, or bad positioning. In 25 years, I can’t remember a Tour where the crashes in the early stages have had such a profound effect on the race day after day after day. Even Alberto Contador has hit the deck a few times. On the flip side, men like the Schlecks, or Cadel Evans, Van Den Broeck, or Kloden have not been in trouble at all…who’s to say why. I suppose there is something to be said about making your own luck by staying up near the front and protecting yourself….it always used to work for Armstrong and his team…I don’t know why today’s challengers have not been able to follow a similar modus operandi, or again, maybe with everyone nervous, it indeed has just been a case of bad luck.

The positive this week, though, has got to be the riding of Thor Hushovd. I am not going to suggest he is a Tour challenger….he isn’t. He is actually building a nice total in the points competition, although he might struggle to win that as well. What he has done, though, is take a 1 second lead throughout the entire week and defend it, including a few stages with uphill finishes, when a simple split in the group between him and Cadel Evans, or behind a several other riders within 8-10 seconds, and he loses the jersey. Certainly during today’s race, which saw a second category climb 25 km from the finish, as well as a 3^rd category climb to the finish, he would have lost his jersey. Many men with better climbing pedigrees than his lost time today. Instead, though, he dug in deep and kept his lead. With no fewer than 8 ranked climbs (most of them 3^rd or 4^th category) on Sunday’s stage, it is unclear if he will hold on for another day, but my hat is certainly off to him, because he has held onto the jersey for a lot longer than most people would have bet on him doing.

Another man having a spectacular Tour is Belgian Philippe Gilbert, who has shifted his focus from holding yellow to pursuing green. Gilbert is the winningest rider in the world this season, and while he is not really an overall contender, he is not a pure sprinter either. He does hold the points lead today, though, after finishing second, his 3^rd top three finish of the week. Given that this is traditionally a sprinters competition, it is perhaps surprising to not see the jersey on Mark Cavendish’s back, or even on the new sprinter on the block, Jose Joaquin Rojas, but Gilbert is a punchy rider who has the strength to get points at the mid-race sprints, and still be able to be around at the finish. He won’t stay with the leaders up the steepest passes, but he will not disappear, either. I believe that he has a real chance to compete for the final green jersey, becoming the first “non-sprinter” to win it since Sean Kelly in 1989, or perhaps Laurent Jalabert in 1995 (both had strong sprinting abilities, but had transformed into a bit more of an all-around rider later in their careers). If he retains good form, look for him to perhaps pad his lead in this competition.

Looking at the overall picture, one has to question some of the fancied riders and their situations. Robert Gesink struggled today on the final climb after injuries the last few days. He may still be able to contend later in the race, but the time he lost today could certainly have a bearing on the race. The Schleck brothers, and indeed, the Leopard Trek team, look very good. They have done almost no work all week, save to stay out of trouble, and they are healthy. On the other hand, Alberto Contador still has some work to do. I’m not saying that he won’t find his climbing legs when they reach the Pyrenees, but on the two uphill finishes this week, he has tried to attack both of them, and has not really got a gap. I’m assuming that he has not really sustained any real injuries from his falls of this week, but he definitely has to hope that his luck turns around next week, because he still remains in the hole due to his bad luck on Day One. I’m still not sure what to make of Cadel Evans. He is looking strong, and is well protected by his team. I am not sure if he has done too much work during the first week, or if his form will fall off in the last week. This is definitely a case of it being a shame that the time trial is so late in the race, as he could certainly do some damage to some of the fancied riders right now.

We will see later next week where Levi Leipheimer’s legs will take him. He hasn’t shown a lack of form, just bad luck. Kloden looks good, and after their first stage losses, American’s Christian Vande Velde and Tom Danielson look good right now, staying out of trouble and waiting for the mountains, where they can see what they can do.

The Tour is still just barely getting started, and I am looking forward to the Pyrenees, when the real shape of this Tour will be revealed. I have to wonder if we will every find some “normalcy”, or if each day will bring with it a surprise, as the 2011 Tour de France retains its title as the most exciting sporting event in the world. These unknowns are why I watch it, and even as I bemoan those occurrences which disappoint me and my favorite riders, I applaud it for the riders who make the race the biggest spectacle each year, and who never truly disappoint me as a pure cycling fan.

There were a number of riders who made very clear impressions on a day when the weather and terrain were not at their friendliest. To me, the ride of the day has to go to Thor Hushovd. At the beginning of the day, most of the prognosticators assumed that he would lose his lead, only one second ahead of Tour favorite Cadel Evans, or perhaps to another rider who was slotted in only seconds behind him. Admittedly, Hushovd is not at his best on a climb, but he has shown through the years that he is one of the strongest cyclists in the world, and demonstrated today that when it meant holding onto his lead, he can ride with the best of them. In the last 2 km, several riders, including Evans, who was perfectly supported by his US-based BMC team, made repeated attacks that were designed to shed all but the best climbers, but Hushovd showed his determination and grit in hanging on. In the end, he finished with a group of 10 riders that all finished in the same time as the winner. Hushovd, and indeed, his American Garmin-Cervelo team, will hold the lead for another day, and given the nature of the courses, they may be able to protect him up to Saturday’s ride through the Massif Central mountains.

Cadel Evans impresses me, but I am still not picking him as a Tour favorite. He still seems to me like someone who is seeking Tour glory when he can grasp at it, and as surprised as he might have been to have taken this stage over Contador, he was probably surprised, if not disappointed, to see Hushovd just behind him, thus keeping him in 2^nd place overall, just one second off of the lead. His team was certainly very strong, and gave expert support to him to ride up to the final climb. Evans is clearly on good form, and has timed his peak well, but I have to wonder if he is spending too much energy in the first week, which he might need later in the race. He was in a similar position in the first half of the race last year, but later faded to finish 26^th, albeit due to injury. Evans may ultimately be riding to a podium finish (I’m not saying which step), or he may ultimately cede his position to any one of a half-dozen riders who are just biding their time, and limiting their losses.

One had to be impressed with Contador’s willingness to attack today. His explosive attack at the foot of the climb was significant, and it demonstrated that he has not suffered from a lack of motivation. After a weekend which saw him disappointed over time lost, he made his bid to recoup at least some of it today, or at least to try and shake one rival or two. In the end, he gained a few seconds over men like Andy Schleck, Horner, Leipheimer and Basso, even if he was ultimately matched by Evans, Van Den Broeck, Frank Schleck and Kloden. I don’t know exactly what to make of his expression over the last 1 km, whether he was surprised by just how steep and difficult the finish was, or perhaps he is just finding his climbing legs, but clearly he still maintains his pride, determined to show that he is still part of the race, and if it is true that the time lost last Saturday might make the difference between winning and losing this year, so too might the time he regained today provide a winning buffer.

I am intrigued with the growing battle for the green jersey. The next two to three days should end up with opportunities for the sprinters. Tyler Farrar looks really good right now, and his team seems up to the task of supporting him. We are still waiting for the real Mark Cavendish to arrive, and the rest of this week may ultimately give him the platform to propel him into the green jersey. Even Thor Hushovd, who must be torn between fighting for the mid-race sprints and the finishes, must ultimately decide if he will support his yellow jersey aspirations for the time being, or if he will go after the points competition. Spain’s Juan Jose Rojas is also adding a new name to the mix, and along with Roman Feillu, may provide a very tough competition for this important prize.

I don’t anticipate a whole lot of change over the next day. I am pleased with the rides today, and thus far, with the RadioShack boys, for whom I am ultimately rooting. They have shown they can follow the best, and have made no errors, and expended little to no energy. I ultimately don’t know what their legs may carry them to, or if it is “sporting” to be a wheel-sucker for the first week, but they are certainly all in fantastic positions, and hopefully can stay out of trouble and off of the ground until the race goes up again on Saturday. Until then, the American flag will continue to be flown by the Garmin and BMC teams, who will fight for the stage wins and short term prizes.