2011 Tour de France- One Last Shot for Contador
Posted by Matt Gilchrist on July 23, 2011
What a Tour this is shaping up to be. The organizers definitely got it right, in terms of stacking the last week. Four days in the Alps, followed by a 42.5km individual time trial is definitely testing the riders. I thought that yesterday’s stage was the most difficult one I have seen in maybe decades. Today’s stage, although relatively short at only 109 km (70 miles), was pretty damn hard two, climbing back up the Col du Galibier (a good 30 km of climbing in the first half of the stage), followed by a 35 minutes descent, and then finishing up Alpe d’Huez, perhaps the most challenging climb in all of cycling. This is all a day AFTER every rode themselves into the group yesterday.
This race is special because of the riders. I did criticize them in the Pyrenees for riding too conservatively, and I’m not sure if that was because they were being defensive in nature, or if they knew what they were doing in terms of saving themselves for this week, which has been brutal. We are really to the point where maybe 20-30 riders are actually “racing” anymore, while the rest of the field are literally trying to survive to the line each day. I will say that I marvel at their powers of recovery, but I suppose it is important to note that each rider does recover differently, and the cumulative efforts given in this race, if not in other parts of the season (i.e.: at the Giro d’Italia) should not be discounted in terms of seeing how fresh certain riders may be at the end of a three week race.
After running out of gas yesterday, I really didn’t know what to expect from Alberto Contador today. When he is at his best, he is a marvelous rider to watch; a freak of nature who is head and shoulders above the rest, especially on the steepest climbs. We have seen it in the past six Grand Tours that he has entered, and subsequently won. Unfortunately, this entire race has not gone his way. He dealt with crashes and delays in the first week, a lack of form in the Pyrenees, and then up and down performances in the first three days in the Alps. I will say, though, that I respect him more today, than perhaps at any other point in his career, because on a day when he seemed to be the most human, and thus, the most fallible, he put on a show of aggression that I have never seen from him in the Tour. He attacked essentially from the foot of the first climb, pushing it all the way to the top of the Galibier, in a move that would have seemed suicidal on most days. After being caught on the descent, he regrouped and attacked again at the foot of the Alpe d’Huez. I will concede that they only let him go because he was no longer a real threat on the general classification, but he showed a sense of panache and courage that we have rarely seen in recent years. Even though he realistically would not challenge for the win, he did show that he would fire every bullet left in his pistol to try and make something happen. I felt bad for him to not win the stage, getting caught in the last 3 km, but it was nice for him to have some pride and to truly empty the tank in order to show what a real champion is made of. This was not his year, but he should not be counted out in the future. He may wish to re-think the Giro-Tour double, as it is painfully evident in recent years that riders who challenge in the Giro seldom have good form in July, compared to those who do not race two Grand Tours.
After 10 days in yellow, Thomas Voeckler’s dream of winning, or even of finishing on the podium, effectively ended on the last climb. I will say that I am impressed with his valiant effort. The French should be proud to have this man represent their country. He will probably not finish on the podium, being over 2 minutes behind both Schlecks and Cadel Evans, and there is a chance that he will get beaten by an on-form Contador, if he can. Both Schlecks and Cadel Evans demonstrated that despite their fatigue from yesterday and the chase today, they are the best three men in this year’s race. It is only fitting that they will battle it out in the time trial tomorrow. I’m not going to predict a winner, but I will say that Frank Schleck will most likely finish 3rd by the end of the day. Many people are predicting that Evans will take the 58 seconds he needs to win over Andy Schleck, and steal the win from him. These two men have essentially done nothing wrong this Tour, and both deserve to win. I will say that there are certainly instances when Evans is a good minute or two better than Schleck in the time trial, but I am not so sure about tomorrow. Schleck demonstrated last year when he was only 8 seconds behind Contador that he can ride a competent time trial, losing only 31 seconds. Even though he did not win the race, he showed that he will not roll over. On the flipside, Evans has twice been in this position, in 2007 to Contador and in 2008 to Carlos Sastre. On both occasions, he was considered the superior time trialist, and on both occasions, he ended up in 2nd place overall, both times with final margins of less than one minute. I am going to say that the end result will be within 15 seconds, perhaps even the smallest margin in history, but I cannot say who will end up the winner.
As far as the other competitions go, I am pleased. Samuel Sanchez has been a great attacker in the mountains, and to win the king of mountains is a good substitute for not having a higher G.C. position. He is guaranteed a spot on the podium in Paris. I am also happy to see Pierre Rolland take the white jersey. While I did not root for him to take the stage today away from Contador, it has not escaped my attention that he was Voeckler’s most loyal and capable domestique through the Pyrenees and Alps, and has shown that perhaps the French have another star of the future to consider. The green jersey will be settled in Paris. I am also ecstatic that Garmin looks to be locking up the team G.C. Tom Danielson definitely deserves his top 10 placing, and with the team prize in their sights, Ryder Hesjedal and Christian Vande Velde, both who were disappointed with off days in the Pyrenees to ruin their GC chances, have ridden very solidly to take places in the top 18 overall. This will be a fair finish, and to have the American team on the podium will be a distinct pleasure, and a boon for American cycling.
The race will essentially be decided in the next twelve hours or so. I am looking forward to another classic finish. I am curious to see who has what left in the gas tank. I am looking forward to the battle for the yellow jersey and the podium. I am looking forward to the inevitable re-arranging of some lesser placings, to see who ends up where. I am curious to see if Alberto Contador still has the pride, and the legs, to challenge tomorrow, and see if he can’t move up to fourth, realistically his best possible placing. It is this suspense that has made this a great Tour, and which will also keep me riveted to my seat tomorrow, until the end.
