Tour de France 2009- Stage #18

Time trials are usually the stages that make or break the standings of a Tour de France, especially near the end of the race, when everyone is tired, and still fighting for final positions.  Usually, it is done on the penultimate day, where the final standings generally indicate the final shuffling of the race standings.  This year, though, things were different.  First of all, the time trial was done on the day following the toughest mountain stage. Secondly, it was a fairly short time trial, at 40.5 km, instead of the 50-60 km variety.  Lastly, Saturday will play host to perhaps the toughest summit finish in the France, at Mont Ventoux, and as such, it is reasonable to expect some more changes in the standings.

I will start by saying that for the most part, my predictions were way off. This is why the race is run, though.  The exciting part of today was that the 3rd-6th place standings are now separated by a mere 35 seconds, with Armstrong moving back onto the virtual podium. First of all, I totally underestimated Contador, who looked phenomenal.  He was strong and fast throughout the entire race, and to beat a specialist like Fabian Cancellara is something special to begin with.  I thought he had stamped his authority in the race, and would take a top 5 placing, and defend on Mont Ventoux.  He is riding this race in the manner of the Armstrong of old, and will come out a deserving winner.

I also need to give credit to both Schlecks, who exceeded my expectations.  Neither of them are renowned time trialists, and for Andy Schleck to only lose 15 seconds to Armstrong, and for Frank to stay within a minute is exceptional.  They are both clearly on form, and are actually in good position to go 2-3 on the podium. I think their performances on this stage are partially due to good form, and partially due to high motivation. On the flip side, I thought that Armstrong, Kloden and Wiggins, all of whom had everything to gain, were only average.  Knowing that the time trial was where they needed to make a serious buffer, I thought that lower top 10 placings for Kloden and Wiggins, and 16^th place for Armstrong, showed some chinks in their armor, so to speak.  I will concede that I thought that many of the riders who rode so hard to the finish on Wednesday showed some fatigue in the 2^nd half of the course, but nevertheless, I was not overjoyed by the result.  I would have liked, truthfully, to have seen a 50 km time trial, where some of those gaps would have been opened.  What this has done, though, is to make for a heck of a battle for 3^rd place, with Armstrong, Wiggins (@ :11 seconds), Kloden (:13) and Frank Schleck (:34).  I felt like it was clear that the speedsters had some of their power sapped from the attacks of Wednesday, and it will ultimately be mano-a-mano on the slopes of Mont Ventoux.  Truthfully, if I were Bruyneel, I would approach it by lending some support to Armstrong and Kloden to try and get them on the final podium.  This might include letting Kloden attack, because if he got away, he would move up.  If he didn’t, there would still be riders there, perhaps, to support Armstrong, and counter the attacks of Wiggins and Frank Schleck.  Either which way, it is going to be a great battle, and a final weekend shakeup that may be unlike many we have seen before.

OTHER ISSUES

The Tour de France is a great podium from which make other announcments.  The news from the last few days has not all been good.  I will acknowledge that I am really pissed off to hear that Danilo DiLuca was found positive for CERA during the Giro d’Italia.  I made me think of my feelings last month, that when something looks to good to be true, it probably is.  His climbing explosiveness was unreal, and unfortunately, simply taking him out of the results doesn’t fix things for other riders.  His presence and his actions had real affects on the way the race was run, whether it meant causing attacks, or potentially causing riders to blow up, when they may otherwise been able to maintain the pace.  It means that for the fourth time in the last 5 years, a member of a Grand Tour podium has been expelled, and someone who should have rightfully had the glory of standing on the podium as a top-three finisher has been robbed. Given that this is a second doping-offiense, I hope his career is over.. I am sick of this shit, but in the same sense, I am glad that it is not stealing the big headlines away.

I will also say that I am a bit miffed that Alberto Contador is being questioned (read: accused) regarding his attack on Verbier.  Apparently, some writer did some crude calculations, and suggested that the amount of power needed to pull of that attack would be virtually impossible without the use of drugs.  Reporters asked him about his VO2 max, etc, and of course, Greg LeMond chimed in with his two cents (in writing).  First of all, there was little that was exact about these calculations, to the point where they could actually nail down how much energy it would have required.  Secondly, his performances over the past two years have shown his ability, and to suggest that he is doping here (where he has not failed any test, despite the witch-hunt that Astana has endured), would be tantamount to saying he doped in the 2007 Tour and the 2008 Giro and Vuelta.  I think it is fair to say, now, that he is the absolute best stage racer in the world, and he is developing much like Armstrong did, and that he will not be going away.

Lastly, I would be remiss if I didn’t respond to the news of the Radioshack team, for which Armstrong will be competing next year.  It is sad, in a way, because I believe it is probably the end of the super-team era. I think that truly, the return of Alexandre Vinokourov is the impetus for this breakup, and mainly because he insists upon having things his way.  I would be surprised not to see Johan Bruyneel at the helm of the Radioshack team, even though he has not yet committed.  What I am unclear on, unfortunately, is the status of the riders.  I don’t know, for example, who is still under contract to Astana, and if those contracts will be honored, or bought out.  I would hate to see Armstrong racing against Levi, and Popovych, and Horner, and even Kloden.  I understand that he and Contador cannot co-exist, and I do wonder how this will affect my feels toward the Spaniard. I have cheered him on, because I still considered Astana my favorite team, even if it was not American, and prior to this race, he has been a likeable, sympathetic figure.  I was happy that he won the Giro/Vuelta double last year, in a gesture to show up the Tour de France, who excluded him.  I was even sympathetic with him earlier this year, because I understand how he can rightfully consider him the best stage racer on the planet, and to have a former champion come back on the team, and try to make inroads on what should have been HIS team, has had to have been difficult.  I do think that certain actions on the road, though, have shown that he does not care as much about his team, though.  I was willing to live with the short attack to Andorra. The attack to the finish at Verbiers was a demonstration that he is the best, and got him the jersey. His burst, though, in the closing kilometers of the Colombiere on Wednesday, shed Kloden, and ultimately ended up costing his team, probably a podium spot.  Contador looked a bit sorry when he was on the bike, when he saw that Kloden was shed, but in the end, I understand it to have been a needless attack, when Kloden should have been able to stay with the group otherwise.  It was up to the Schlecks to attack, and I sometimes think the Contador needs to learn more patience in terms of when to use his energy.

In any event, I do hope that Radioshack becomes a fully-loaded Pro Tour team. I have been  pleased by Armstrong’s ride, even surprised. He has been fun to watch this year, and I don’t think that a finish in the 3-5 range will damage his legacy.  He is getting beaten by the best rider of this new era, and a second rider of considerable class. With that being said, though, he has also demonstrated (to me), that he is not really a contender for the Tour de France in the future.  He has benefited by having a strong team, and having a tremendous amount of courage and confidence.  He has struggled though, to match the absolute best climbers, and has been just average in the time trials.  I don’t expect him to ride for more than another year or so, and I hope that he will help attract top talent, so that there can be a team we can be proud of.  It is important to acknowledge that we are headed into a new generation, and it will take a lot of work for the new generation to match what the best Americans of this past decade have been able to accomplish. I guess in this sense, though, only time will tell.