Tour de France 2009- Stage #17

Today was as destructive a day as I have seen in the Tour de France in many years, in terms of eliminating challengers.  The course was about as difficult as one can imagine, with no fewer than five climbs to tackle through the Alps, and coming as the third consecutive day in the mountains, it was destined to make some real differences in the classification. While the stage started with the top ten only separated by a couple of minutes, this stage has virtually cemented Alberto Contador’s second victory, while making for some interesting battles for the lower positions, as the Tour tackles a 40 km time trial tomorrow (with no transition stage before it), before tackling the Giant of Provence on Saturday, to ultimately decide the race overall.

Each race starts with a number of favorites, with the title sometimes being more open in certain years than in others.  I have believed that Contador was the best rider from Day One, and he hasn’t done anything to dissuade me of that notion.  Interestingly enough, though, this race has actually come down to eight leading riders, who have all made their presence known throughout this race.  Nowhere in this list will you find the names of Carlos Sastre, who imploded today, or Cadel Evans, who finished today with the sprinter’s group some 27 minutes behind, or Denis Menchov.  I could, and maybe should, give credit to riders like Rinaldo Nocentini and Christophe Le Mevel, who both moved high into the standings after breakaways, and neither have fallen as far as I might have thought.  Even George Hincapie, who is no climber, is now the highest placed Columbia rider, holding 22^nd place, and still fighting for a spot in the top 20. The riders in the top 8 tonight, are the one’s I consider to be this year’s royalty:  Alberto Contador, Andy Schleck, Frank Schleck, Lance Armstrong, Andreas Kloden, Bradley Wiggins, Vincenzo Nibali, and yes, Christian Vande Velde.

Astana has controlled this race since the first day, and I don’t believe that there tactics have erred, in that it is likely that they will finish with three riders in top 6 in the race, if not all three on the podium.  They will certainly have the winner in Contador, and even though both Lance Armstrong and Andreas Kloden lost time today, and fell out of the top 3 overall.  In fact, I believe that the only mistake Contador has made in the entire race was to attack near the end of the Col de Columbiere today, presumably to test out the Schleck brothers, when ultimately, in shed Kloden, who may have otherwise been strong enough to ride with his teammate and two rivals to the finish, and would be in 2^nd place tonight.  Armstrong also played the dutiful teammate, and stayed back when Frank Schleck attacked, which also cost him, but also took Wiggins out of the overall title picture. That being said, Armstrong also demonstrated that his form continues to improve, and that he may yet have something to say about the order in the final standings.  I believe that had he not been saddled with team responsibilities, he may have been able to ride with Contador, the Schlecks and Kloden, but demonstrated the intelligence and integrity of a savvy veteran, and true teammate, by not dragging Wiggins back into the play.

 The Schleck brothers rode perfectly today, with Frank being given the stage, and Andy cementing his hold on the white jersey.  They both succeeded in dropping Bradley Wiggins, and putting in enough time into him (3:00+), to hopefully survive an onslaught in tomorrow’s time trial, or at least cede only enough time that they may regain on Mont Ventoux.  With both of the Schlecks now on the virtual podium, in 2^nd and 3^rd, they are in an interesting position.  They can both expect to lose time tomorrow in the time trial to all of the riders directly behind them.  They may even lose their podium positions tomorrow, but with the Tour essentially being decided this year on the road up to a mountaintop finish, it is conceivable that they may have the last word in terms of the podium, not Astana.

It will be an interesting battle tomorrow between the 2^nd through 5^th positions.  Each of them have a lot to ride for, and a lot will depend upon their recovery abilities.  Of course, I would naturally give Armstrong the edge in terms of experience, and perhaps history of riding final time trials, but it is by no means a given.  Wiggins is one of the best time trialists in the world, and Kloden has a history of riding them well also.  As it stands right now, the standings for the lower placings are as follows:

1. Andy Schleck
2. Frank Schleck @ :59
3. Lance Armstrong @ 1:29
4. Andreas Kloden @ 2:18
5. Bradley Wiggins @ 2:27
6. Vincenzo Nibali@ 2:43
7. Christian Vande Velde@ 5:42

It is very hard to determine how people will ride at the end of a race, when the motivation is highest.  I have not really be able to find other results, either from this year or last year, to make fair conditions, because I do believe that riders will rise to the occasion when the stakes are highest, and I think it is fair to say that all of these men are displaying fantastic form right now. I would make the following predictions, again, without putting Contador into the equation, because with a cushion of over two minutes from Andy Schleck and about 4:00-5:00 on Armstrong, Kloden and Wiggins, his yellow jersey is safe.

Of the top 7 riders listed above, I would believe that the order of finish would be something like this:

1. Wiggins
2. Armstrong @ :20-:30
3. Kloden @ :35-:45
4. Vande Velde @ 1:00-1:15
5. Nibali @ 1:00- 1:15
6. Andy Schleck @ 1:30- 2:00
7. Frank Schleck @ 2:30- 3:00

This might result in a top 8, going into Mont Ventoux which looks something like this:

1. (Alberto Contador)
2. Armstrong @4:00?(Lets assume that Contador is on a similar level in the TT)
3. Andy Schleck @ 4:00
4. Bradley Wiggins @ 4:30
5. Andreas Kloden @ 5:20
6. Frank Schleck @ 5:30
7. Vincenzo Nibali @ 7:00
8. Christian Vande Velde @ 9:00

Now, there is nothing particularly scientific about these guesses, although I did reference the gaps in the first stage, and tried to make an educated guess about how those could be different in a time trial that is almost three times as long.  As you can tell, nothing should be set in stone after tomorrow.  One of the favorites could really blow the others away, and/or the Schleck’s especially, could blow up and lose serious time. I can only wonder, though, with the yellow jersey secure, and the Schleck’s certain to attack on Saturday, would Astana conceivably work to protect either Armstrong and/or Kloden in a bid to secure a second  (or third) podium spot?

In reality, Nibalia and Vande Velde are secure in their spots. Neither will move up, and they should both be able to maintain their spots, at least until Mont Ventoux.  I list them here, though, because compared to the other riders who have come and gone this year (Evans, Sastre, Menchov, Kirchen, etc), they have made their marks well.  Nibali has consistantly ridden in the second group in the highest mountains, and finished today with Armstrong, showing that he is rider with a lot of class.  If it were not for Wiggins, who is definitely the find in this Tour, he would be one of the big talking points.  I also want to give credit where it is due to Christian Vande Velde.  He started this race as a favorite, and has ridden solidly throughout.  He is not in the contending position he was a year ago, but given his lack of pre-race conditioning, he has ridden better than many of the so-called favorites.  He has transitioned well from a protected rider, to a domestique deluxe, doing all of the heavy pace work on the final climb today, to keep Wiggins in with a chance of contending.  Even though he fell back in the last 20 km, he kept his position on the road, and should finish the race in the top 10, a tremendous finish.

I do wish to emphasize that unlike past Tours, the final time trial is NOT the final act in this epic saga.  While the advantage swings to Astana tomorrow in the time trial, the Schlecks will still have one more serious card to play on Saturday.  As Kornheiser used to say in ths Washington Post, my picks should not be used for any gambling purposes, and are only meant for fun and consideration.

Any which way, today was a huge day in this race, and tomorrow should also be eventful as this stage looks to mold the final standings in this year’s Tour de France.