Tour de France 2009- Stage 16

Another day in the Alps, and more excitement in the standings.  Stage 16 of this year’s race may not have ultimately decided the top standings, but it did make some differences, and it all but ended the dreams of some riders. The course was daunting, with a hors category climb to start the race, a long descent, and then another 20+km climb, before ending with 30 km of descending to the finish.  Upon looking at it on Sunday, I didn’t expect that today’s stage would do that much damage, since tomorrow’s stage will be incredibly hard, and I assumed that the favorites would stay together on the last climb, with the descent being so long to the finish.  I was wrong.

It occurs to me that the race tactics over the next few days will not actually depend as much on what Astana does, as it will on the actions of the other rival teams. Saxo Bank and Garmin are still in prime positions with Andy Schleck and Wiggins, not to mention both Frank Schleck and Christain Vande Velde respectively.  It will clearly be up to the both of those team, and perhaps even Liquigas, to go on the offensive tomorrow, in hopes of isolating Contador, and shedding away the rest of the field.  I have to give extreme credit to Andy Schleck, in that he has really risen his game to an elite level this year.  He is proving to be an explosive climber, and while I don’t think that he can beat Contador, I have to wonder what he may do tomorrow and Saturday.  He attacks explosively, which does not bode well for the riding style of Armstrong, or some of the other favorites. Bradley Wiggins is also still a surprise, with his ability to follow the moves of the best riders.  Contador showed today that he is still the absolute favorite, as he looked calm and cool all day, never needing to attack, and simply follow the wheels of his rivals when they made the moves.

I have a new-found respect for Lance Armstrong 3.0.   I was a bit worried about him after Sunday’s stage, and when the attacks came near the top of the 2nd climb today, he was dropped immediately.  I was impressed that Astana had actually chosen Kloden to go with Contador, perhaps realizing that Armstrong’s highest level may not be suitable for keeping with the leader.  Just when I thought that Contador was going to take more time from Armstrong, and more importantly, the other leaders, and that Armstrong could fall as far as 6th or 7th in the GC, he rode across the gap as if he was five years younger.  He waited until he knew he could sustain his efforts, and did not want to give a free pass to the other riders, who ultimately bridged on their own, but still played the defensive game as a teammate, too.

With tomorrow’s queen stage looming, I do believe that there will be some monster changes.  I definitely think that today’s stage completely ended Cadel Evans’ hopes in this race, and his attention may ultimately be just to finish in the top-10.  He is still too dangerous let him get away in a long break, even if he could.  Riders like Martin and Nocentini continue to fall away, and riders like Sastre, Frank Schleck, and Christian Vande Velde crawl back into the top 10.  There will still be changes made, with the huge stage tomorrow, and the time trial to follow, so we will see not just who is strong, but who can recover and come out fighting again.  I suspect that this is the sort of race the organizers envisioned….to keep it relatively close for a couple weeks, and then have explosions each day for the last week.  This is what we have been waiting for, and I for one can wait to see how things shape up in the 24-48 hours.