Tour de France 2009- Stage #15

At last, the final picture of this year’s  Tour de France is starting to take shape.  As we have waited for the last two weeks to see some real explosive racing, the last 8 km of this stage, up the climb of Verbiers in the Swiss Alps, we saw what the first two weeks could do:  separate the real contenders for the final victory from the pretenders.

I have suggested all along that Alberto Contador was the rider to beat in this year’s race, and despite all of the controversy in the media over the last two weeks, today, he proved it beyond a shadow of a doubt.  While the flat stages or occasionally the time trials can allow some riders to bluff a bit on their form, the mountains tend to tell the most about the strength of a rider, and when the climbs are most destructive, Contador again showed that he is currently the best rider in the world. To his credit, he probably put to rest all the nast y questions over Astana leadership, and created a situation where his team should all clearly be supporting him, even as they also hold the 2nd and 4th place overall, in Armstrong and Kloeden. (and yes, I still can’t help but wonder how things could be with Leipheimer in the mix).

To be fair, though, this race is far from over.  Between Tuesday and Saturday, the riders will ride three mountain stages and an individual time trial. There is alot of time for riders to rise and fall in the standings.  The best riders are those who recover well day after day. For certain, today weeded out most of the field, but there are still a number of riders who can contend either for the podium, or perhaps the top-10, even if the overall victory is now probably out of reach.

TODAY’S WINNERS:

Alberto Contador: Today couldn’t have gone any better for him today.  Besides winning the stage in a dominant fashion, he also established real supremacy within his own team.  With two teammates still close high in the standings, Astana is now is great shape, but he has to know that if the chips were down, he would be the protected rider.  Most importantly, he also sent a message to the rest of the field that it will be up to them to attack him to try and win, and with the seemingly effortless manner in which he scorched up the last climb, his challengers may indeed start to look at each other, and fight for the lower positions, in that dropping him on a climb may be something just short of impossible right now.

Andy Schleck: Perhaps for the first time in his career, Schleck has lived up to his reputation as a top-flight climber.  He may ultimately be the one rider who can challenge Contador on a climb, although despite his explosiveness, I still doubt his ability to actually drop him and take out the two and a half minutes he would need to take over the lead.  To his credit, though, he also looks like he is in a prime position to rise up perhaps as high as second overall in Paris, assuming that he doesn’t give up too much in the time trial.  We will have to wait and see how that turns out, but I would think that his climbing should at least negate any time he might lose to a rider like Evans, Wiggins or even Armstrong, and could find himself definitely in the podium mix.

Bradley Wiggins- Perhaps the biggest surprise of the entire Tour de France.  He has been a champion on the track, and had a reputation as a decent time-trialist, but he has never ridden through the mountains this strongly. I will say that he still has to prove he can do this day after day, but he has ridden well enough to gain the support of his team, and indeed, has yet to show any weakness at all. It would not be stretch to suggest that he could end up on the podium.

TODAY’S LOSERS

Christian Vande Velde- Vande Velde had looked pretty good for the first two weeks, but clearly, his lack of fitness after his Giro crash showed that he is lacking that upper 10% of form that could have legitimately made him a podium contender.  I won’t go so far as to say that I was surprised to see him slip back, as I did not expect him to climb with the same strength 2008, without doing the work.  Unfortunately, confidence and experience can only take you so far, and today really revealed where he is this year.  He may still end up with a top-10 placing, but his efforts will now be for Wiggins, and not himself.

Denis Menchov- I list the Giro d’Italia champion here only because it will be the last time that he is mentioned in regards the favorites.  He hasn’t shown the form that won him the Tour of Italy in June for the entire race, and today’s stage completely removed him from contention. It will be interesting to see if he picks himself up to fight for a stage win, but I would not be surprised at all to see him anonymously ride to the finish without a sound, if he finishes at all.

I won’t directly label yesterday’s top 2 riders, Rinaldo Nocentini and George Hincapie amongst the losers, even if they did tumble down the standings today.  Truthfully, both of them actually rode admirably, losing only 2:36 and 4:00 respectively.  Neither was expected to finish high up in the classification, and I would expect Nocentini, especially, to fall away from the top 10 this week, while he can look back proudly on his week in the yellow jersey.  George did not concede as much time as you might have expected, given his efforts of yesterday.  He has finished in the top 20 a couple of times in the past, and while he may still hang around the top 20-25 riders overall, his work will most likely shift back to supporting his teammates.

While he did lose over a minute and a half to Contador, I will not label Lance Armstrong as a loser today, either.  Today, he displayed what he really can do, and I will say that it was conducive to a man who is 37 years old, and fighting against men who are a decade younger.  He is strong, and he will still fight for a high position, but he is not a contender for victory.  He will work for Contador, and still follow the moves of the favorites, but he will not be mentioned (justifiably) as a contender for victory again.  I put Andreas Kloden in this same category.  Astana still has the strongest overall team in the race, but they also showed that when the race is at its hardest, that doesn’t mean that they are capable of simply bottling up all of the contenders without them even trying.

THE OTHERS:

Carlos Sastre remains somewhat of an enigma to me.  He was off the back when the attacks started, but clawed his way up to finish in the chasing group just behind Contador and Schleck, with Wiggins, Vincenzo Nibali and Frank Schleck.  He does not look like a Tour de France challenger, but he is riding the savvy race of a grizzled veteran, staying within himself, and may still find himself at or near a podium place.  It does remind me that he won the race last year, essentially, due to brilliance on one stage, and strong teamwork, more than from three weeks of dominance.

Cadel Evans is also riding a solid race, although still lacking in the agressiveness that he would need to win this race.  He has proven that he is good enough to follow some of the best, but not good enough to drop them.  He is not really a contender any more this year, and perhaps may have to admit after this year that his best chances to win are indeed in the past.

THis week will also tell how high younger riders like Nibali, Roman Kreuziger, Kim Kirchen and Frank Schleck may finish.  None are real contenders for victory, but are certainly all in a position to earn a decent overall finish this year.

With the rest day coming tomorrow, and a week to go, I will take this opportunity to review my predictions, and make some new ones, based on what I think may happen in this vicious week of racing to come.

	Pre-Race Predictions	Post Stage 15 Standings	Post Stage 15 Predictions for final
1	Alberto Contador	Alberto Contador	Alberto Contador
2	Carlos Sastre	Lance Armstrong- @ 1:37	Andy Schleck
3	Cadel Evans	Bradley Wiggins @ 1:46	Lance Armstrong
4	Levi Leipheimer	Andreas Kloden @ 2:17	Andreas Kloden
5	Denis Menchov	Andy Schleck @ 2:26	Bradley Wiggins
6	Andy Schleck	Rinaldo Nocentini @ 2:30	Carlos Sastre
7	Lance Armstrong	Vincenzo Nibali @2:51	Cadel Evans
8	Kim Kirchen	Tony Martin @ 3:07	Frank Schleck
9	Frank Schleck	Christophe Le Mevel @3:09	Vincenzo Nibali
10	Christian Vande Velde	Frank Schleck @3:25	Tony Martin
Points	Mark Cavendish	Thor Hushovd	Thor Hushovd
Climber	Sylvain Chavanel	Franco Pellizotti	Franco Pellizotti
Young Rider	Andy Schleck	Andy Schleck	Andy Schleck
Team	Astana	Astana	Astana

There is nothing terribly scientific about these predictions, but they do take into consideration some general observations from this morning, and also taking into consideration time gaps already existing. I do think that Armstrong will ride a good time trial, and put some time into Andy Schleck, but ultimately, the amount of time he is apt to lose on the climbs will more than make up for it.  Truthfully, I could see Armstrong, Wiggins and Kloden all shuffle positions.  All three will ride solid time trials, and with Armstrong and Kloden having to do duty for their team, seeing Wiggins move up to the podium is certainly conceivable.  I gave the Astana riders the nod due to their experience, but if Wiggins keeps riding well, the confidence he gains may be more telling than his lack of expertise.

In the next tier, I also believe that Sastre will edge out Evans in the mountains.  I do wonder at what point Evans may decide that he is not a real contender this year, and how that will affect him.  He should beat Sastre in the time trial, but Sastre should make up those losses on Mont Ventoux.  For both of them, though, it is clearly a step back from last year, and does again remind us that they were the best riders last year in a field that was not as deep as it is this year.

Likewise, the last three picks of Frank Schleck, Nibali and Martin reflect what they did today, and up until today.  These places could also shuffle some due to the time trial (especially for Schleck), and we could see riders like Vande Velde, Kreuziger or Kim Kirchen come back up into the fold.

The climbers competition has been basically what I expected: a fight between lesser riders who are not really prepared to fight out the last climbs, and who have gone after the earlier climbs.  To his credit, Franco Pellizoti is an established rider, with his podium placing in the Giro.  Like many riders before him though (see: Menchov, Denis or Simoni, Gilberto), he is proving that great form in June in Italy does not always translate into even better form in France in July.  I really like Egoi Martinez, but he is not talented enough to make the highest peaks late in the stages with the leaders.  Contador will end up in the top 3 of this competition, only be fighting the final peaks of stages like Mont Ventoux, and getting the double points on the hors category climbs.  He probably won’t close down Pellizotti’s lead, especially if  he scores more points, but it will prove to be a decent competition until the last end.

The judges essentially closed the book on the points competition yesterday, when they relegated Mark Cavendish for what they said was erratic sprinting.  I’m not sure if that be the case or not, but what it comes down to is this:  the best sprinter in the race now has an 18 point deficit to Thor Hushovd, the 2nd best sprinter.  Unless he tries to steal some intermediate points, which will be difficult for him to do, the race will go down to the final sprint in Paris.  A four point margin essentially is the difference between first and 2nd on the final day, but now, Cavendish would have to win the stage, and hope that Hushovd doesn’t finish higher than tenth, an unlikely possibility.

Andy Schleck will solidify his white-jersey lead, although I am impressed with the young riders this year in Nibali, Tony Martin and Kreuzinger.  It will be interesting to see how they develop as they get older, or if they end up being the generation of pretenders to what may ultimately become the Reign of Contador era.

As long as they continue to maintain Contador, Armstrong and Kloden in the top of the standings, Astana should be able to protect their team lead, which is justified, because they have clearly been the best team in the whole of the race since Day One.

With the rest day tomorrow, the race returns to the Alps on Tuesday, with a stage which contains two major climbs, but which finishes with a 30 km descent after the last 1st category climb.  It will be challenging, but perhaps not completely devisive, as riders who might become somewhat unhitched at the top of the climb may still return in the flight to the finish.  It will be a stage where contenders will have to be agressive on the 2nd climb, but which may ultimately not provide the same gaps as one might find on a true mountain-top finish.

On a slightly related note, I want to give kudos to my friend TK, who provided me with the means to check out the LiveTour Tracker from Versus.com.  As far as online coverage is concerned, it provides everything one could ask for.  Live coverage which is very similar to what you see on TV, only without the commercials.  The other thing you don’t get online, though, is some of the smaller interviews or informative pieces that Phil will bring you during the stage (ie: a look inside one of the team cars, etc), but it is still Phil and Paul bringing their expert coverage. You have the means to review standings, the race map/profile, and see where the pack and any breaks are in real time.  It is userfriendly, and very informative.  The only difficulties I had were the occasional moments when the digital feed would freeze, which were only slightly annoying.  I did miss some of the TV extras, but overall, I would give Versus and A+ for their set up.  Thanks, TK, for the look inside.