Tour de France 2009- Stage 13

After a week that was more or less transition, one in which I waited for the mountains, to see what Astana would do and how the overall picture would shape up, today I was reminded just how harsh the reality of the race can be.  To turn on the TV to find out that Levi Leipheimer, a real podium challenger, was out of the race, was a huge disappointment to me.  I absolutely love the way he rides, so cool, so strong, and the fact that he added one more threat to a team that was/is possibly the strongest in history only made the reality that he is gone all the harder to bear.

I guess one of the reasons I am bummed is that Levi rides like a true pro, and a grizzled veteran.  He really doesn’t make many tactical errors, and he had ridden intelligently, just waiting for the time to come.  Falling less than 3 km from the end yesterday, in a crash that was caused by someone else’s misdoing, makes me a bit madder, because I really don’t think that he deserved this fate.

But with this out of the way, the reality comes back to me that this is the way the Tour de France is.  The Tour does care about dreams or goals, and it doesn’t care about reputations or predictions.  Today the race revisited the mountains, albeit it the Vosges mountains, and not the giant peaks of the Alps.  The weather could have made for an epic stage, but instead, it kept any of the favorites from making any attempts on the descent, because they were not willing to take unnecessary risks.  Armstrong looked pretty good.  I am still unsure of exactly where he is in this race.  He doesn’t make mistakes, and he stays at the front.  I have to believe that he is gaining some confidence, but in looking at him climb, at one point I saw him huffing and puffing, and the next, pushing the pace at the front.  I just have to wonder how he will react when the Schlecks, or Evans, or Sastre (or Contador) makes a real attack.  I sort of feel like he is capable of following at the steady paces, and he is clearly strong, but I don’t know that we have really seen much in terms of what he is capable of doing in a really violent effort.

I also feel similarly about Christian Vande Velde.  He has quietly moved himself into podium contention by following the best, making few, if any, mistakes, and not wasted any energy.  He is one of the better time trialists, and is gaining confidence.  To me, though, I have also (semi) patiently waited through this week to get to the mountains.  I realize that the race does take its toll on the riders, and that while the race has not be as devisive as some have been in the past, I know that we are only a few days from a truly epic week.

I am still refraining from making any predictions, and I don’t know that Saturday will change much either.  Astana has still ridden a powerful, and brilliant race.  They have made few mistakes, and even w/out Levi, they still have strong support.  It may ultimately cause Kloden to make more of a sacrifice, but it is conceivable still that they could sweep the podium, if things go the right way. All three of their leaders are exceptional time trialists, and have shown to be strong climbers, with a team willing to work the front of the pack.

Rinaldo Nocentini has been the beneficiary of Johan Bruyneel’s wisdom, in that he has not been interested in pursuing the yellow jersey, and accepting the responsibility that goes with it.  This last week may be a career-defining week for Nocentini, who will most likely fall away on Sunday, as the favorites come to the fore. I believe that Sunday could be explosive, as we will see if a) Contador (or Armstrong) will attack, b) will other favorites take the iniative and go on the offensive, and c) how will Astana react.  I believe we will see an Astana yellow jersey, and those athletes who are pretenders to the race prodium may fall away, as the top contenders rise to the top.

One more “transitional” stage to get through, and then it will be six days of fireworks left to decide the race overall.