Tour de France-Stage 1

Well, the initial excitement that comes from waiting and predicting have now come and gone, and the race has begun! The 2009 Tour began this morning in Monaco, and with a 15.5 km time trial, the stage was longer than most normal prolouges, and also made a few statements regarding what may happen over the next three weeks.

First of all, I thought that the course looked phenomenal, with a little bit of everything to test the best riders.  With a long climb in the first half, a rider had to start strong, but with the 2nd half including a long, very technical descent, we say that the riders’ bike handling skills were tested before powering to the finish.  After winning the Tour de Suisse last month, Fabian Cancellara clearly came into this race in form.  I’m not sure what surprised me more, how strongly he made it up the hill in the first half (5 sec behind Contador), or just how destructive he was on the downhill.  The gaps he created over the rest of the field (starting with the 18 seconds he put into 2nd place Contador) are indicative of just how strong he is at this event, and was probably even larger than I would have expected. As I predicted, Cancellara won this event, and realistically could hold the jersey into the team-time trial on Tuesday, if not longer.

A few other observations….first and foremost, Astana  brought their A game today, and I found it interesting that they sent Armstrong and Leipheimer early in the day, while Kloeden and Contador near the end.  I think it showed their strength, though, that in the end, all four of the top Astana riders ended up with top-10 results, and with the exception of Contador, who rode just after Cancellara, each ended up setting the top time.  Even though Contador now has time over Kloeden (4 seconds), Leipheimer (11 seconds) and Armstrong (21 seconds), I don’t read too much into it.  I think it shows that they are all in strong form, and I believe that Contador is still the best rider in the race, deserving of support when the race hits the mountain. I would not be surprised to see him in yellow on Tuesday, although I don’t see him wanting to keep it.  Kloeden might have been the big surprise of the four of them, especially since he is often the one who is overlooked in the Contador/Armstrong/Leipheimer debate, but it is clear that he has the form and the desire to play a real role in this race in the long run.

I don’t put a whole lot of stock in the results of the first day, even though the gaps were fairly significant for some of the key riders.  I believe that Cadel Evans looked phenomenally good, slipping in right behind Kloeden, and gaining some valuable time over some of his strongest rivals.  40+ seconds on guys like Andy Schleck and Carlos Sastre may be a valuable edge, although he also stands to lose some time to both of them in the team time trial.  Of the top 10 contenders I discussed in my preview, I thought most were solid, although Menchov was a bit farther back than I expected.  He may have left his best form in Italy last month, or he may have just been conservative on a difficult course.  Frank Schleck was also a bit on the disappointing side, dropping over a minute to Contador. On the flip side, Vande Velde and Andy Schleck came up with solid, if not promising rides, both in the top 20, and both beating out some of their other rivals, even if by just a few seconds.  I should also ackowledge that Roman Kreuziger turned in a great ride, confirming his form from last month in Switzerland, and perhaps confirming that he will be a player in this race. Kim Kirchen, who I picked in the top 10, did not ride well at all, finishing 109th, at 1:57 back.

The next couple of stages should belong to the sprinters, with Mark Cavendish being the obvious favorite.  Interestingly enough, even though they have the leader on their team, I do not see CSC being overly active in terms of controlling the pack to keep the breakaways from getting away.  With the team time trial two days away, and with overall contendor Andy Schleck on the team, I don’t know that they will want to waste too much energy.  With no time bonuses being  given on the line this year, I see Garmin-Chipotle and Columbia trying to control their field for their sprinters (Farrar and Cavendish, respectively), but also, each has riders who finished high up in today’s stage (Wiggins- 3rd) and (Martin-7th).  Both have a chance at taking the leader’s jersey on Tuesday, with strong squads in that discipline.

In any event, the riders have gotten their feet wet, and the race is on.  While no one has won the Tour after today, it is always exciting to see who has stayed close amongst the contendors, and who has started to dig themselves in a hole.  With the three weeks to go, there is still alot of riding to do.