Tour de France- 2009- Preview

It’s been an event-filled year since the Tour de France last ended in Paris last July, and here we are again with the greatest sporting event in the world ready to begin again.  A lot has changed in the sport over the last 11 months.  The greatest Tour de France rider of all time has come out of a 3 year retirement, the fight against performance-enhancing drugs has continued, catching several riders committing egregious acts of wrong-doing, and newer champions have continued to evolve in the sport.  The drama of the absence of the 2007 champion, Alberto Contador, last year has been replaced with the potential intra-squad tensions over who will lead his virtual all-star squad. Last year’s edition, while perhaps devoid of a true favorite or any sort of dominant rider was nevertheless one of the most competitive in history as many as 5-6 riders vying for the top spot on the podium going into the last few days, not least of all the surprise American, Christian Vande Velde, who flew the Stars & Stripes proudly for yet another year.

 I will say that I consider this to be my 23^rd Tour which I have watched closely. While not on par with Phil Liggett or Paul Sherwen, I am proud to say that this is one of my annual passions, and I have given much thought and considerations as it pertains to the predictions I will be making today.  I will concede that some of these predictions will change in a couple weeks’ time, but they are based upon the riders who I consider to be favorites, their perceived form this season up until now, and how they will manage team tactics over a fantastic course planned out.

Before getting to my picks, I will look at three central issues:  the course, the drug issue, and the Astana affair. Each of these will be central to my picks, and towards the central enjoyment of this spectacle over the next three weeks.

THE TOUR ROUTE 2009

First of all, I think that this is a pretty interesting course this year, with some interesting twists which will favor certain types of riders.  The first thing that strikes me is the relatively low amount of individual time trial distances. In sum total, there is a short time trial (long prologue) of 15.5 km on the first day, followed by the team time trial of 38km on stage four. This amount in the first week is fairly standard, and I will say that I am in favor of the return of the team time trial. It may be because the better teams of the Americans (Garmin-Chipotle, Columbia-HTC, and Astana) tend to be skilled in this discipline, but also because I think it is a cool event, and worthy of inclusion in the best race.  Team strength should count for something, and preparation is key for this event.  I expect all three of the aforementioned squads battling for the win on Tuesday. The first stage is pretty long for a prologue, and I will say up front that the first yellow jersey on Saturday is Fabian Cancellara’s for the taking, but I think it is also an opportunity for riders like Armstrong, Leipheimer, Vande Velde, and yes, Alberto Contador, to answer some questions about their form, and indeed make some real time (:30+ seconds) over some of their closer rivals. On the flip side, with only one other individual time trial, in the last week, of 40 km, I see the advantage of the overall swinging more to the climbers than the thoroughbreds.  Guys like Leipheimer, Evans and maybe Menchov, Vande Velde or Armstrong will have to make serious gains in this last time trial if they hope to get a real advantage over the pure climbers.

On the flip side, I consider the mountains of this race to be hardest in the second half of the race.  This means a few things to the casual observer.  It means that the favorites will have to be patient and attentive for the first two weeks, without wasting too much energy.  There is a mountain-top finish on stage 7, but I doubt that anyone with real thoughts of victory really wants to be overly aggressive this early, and have to carry the burden of the jersey for two weeks. This stage will surely eliminate from contention, but I still see the favorites watching each other, and only getting minimal gains over one another.

The last week, though, includes three hard days in the Alps, the individual time trial, and the extra treat the ASO gave us this year: a penultimate day challenge up Mont Ventoux, one of the trickiest ascents in the world.  It is rare to get this type of stage right before the end, and it will fuel the excitement which comes from the idea that anything can happen on a mountain.  The favorites will have to stay strong all the way to the finish, at the end of a week which can only be labeled tortuous.

DRUGS ON THE TOUR

This wouldn’t be cycling if I didn’t have to address drugs.  I wish I didn’t, but unfortunately, recent history suggests that it will be an issue.  I will say that despite the open allegations, I am willing to concede one of two things:  everyone in the sport is a doper, or most are honest, with only a few willing to take the risks by cheating.  I am of the opinion that most of the riders are honest, with only a few people cheating.  I have also become very cynical, in that I now sort of believe that if it looks too good to be true, it probably is. Riders may make their reputations on the Tour de France, but I don’t know that riders suddenly sprout wings they never had before the Tour (see: Schumacher and Kohl, 2007), nor are modest climbers suddenly head and shoulders above the best in the world (see: Ricco or Piepoli).  I believe that experience and team strength play a real role in one’s development as a Tour rider, and there is a reason why few riders really succeed on their first time out. I am hoping that I can end this race without questioning what I have seen, rather, I will embrace the human spirit and the physical and emotional suffering which allow some men to go harder and faster, and achieve higher results than others.  I want to see these men grit their teeth, and fight for every inch and every second which may make the ultimate difference. Call me naïve perhaps, but god damnit, this is my sport too, and I want more than anything to believe that what I am seeing is real, and not something chemically contrived. 

THE ASTANA AFFAIR

Any 2009 Tour de France preview would be incomplete without an acknowledgement of the Astana situation, and its affect on the Tour this year.  To put it in context,  I will say that the most talent-ridden team I can remember of all time was the 1986 La Vie Claire squad, with 5 time Tour de France winner, Bernard Hinault, and ultimately, a 3 time winner in Greg LeMond.  They were supported by yellow jersey wearers or stage winners including Andy Hampsten (4^th that year), Niki Rutimann (9^th), Jean-Francois Bernard (12^th) and Steve Bauer (4^th in 1988, 10^th in 1985). That team was torn apart by intrasquad tensions between their two leaders, a defending and retiring champion in Hinault, and the ultimate winner in LeMond. The most dominant TEAM I have ever seen was the USPS/Discovery outfit from 2000-2005 (pick which one was the best). On those teams, the full team put aside their personal ambitions to support a chosen leader (Armstrong), and showed their strength by flexing their muscle in the mountains, and protecting Armstrong to seven wins in succession.  It would not be unusual to have the peloton be whittled down to 30 odd riders on the 3^rd or 4^th peak of the day, and still have 6-7 Postal/Discovery riders be at the front, forcing the pace, and delivering their leaders to the end.  These teams were not devoid of talent outside of Armstrong….they had Grand Tour winners like Salvodelli or Heras, classic winners like Hincapie, GC contenders like Hamilton or Landis (both pre-doping…I hope) or Yaroslav Popovych, or an Olympic champion like Ekimov.  I give a solid acknowledgement that in 2007, when Contador won, and Levi Leipheimer finished in 3^rd place, 31 seconds back, and Popovych finished in 8^th, this result was every bit as satisfying as seeing Armstrong lead the team. The key ingredient was the intelligence and shrewd management of Johan Bruyneel.

Well, the two preceding scenarios have now intertwined.  On the one hand, the Astana team, which missed last year (I will say as a Bruyneel/Armstrong bias penalty), dominated the season last year save for the Tour, with Contador winning the Giro and Vuelta, and Leipheimer taking a close 2^nd in Spain.  They have returned with the best stage racer in the world, determined to continue his march into the history books as the strongest rider of this era, only to be confronted with Armstrong’s return. And what a team it will be: Contador, the 2007 champion, and youngest rider to win all three Grand Tours, which he has done in the last two years; Armstrong, the 38 year old seven-time Tour winner, who came out of retirement to spread his message of cancer research, and scratch his competitive itches; Levi Leipheimer, 3^rd in the 2007 Tour, and 2^nd in the 2008 Vuelta…one of the most consistent stage racers in the world, and best time trialists on the planet; Andreas Kloeden, 2004 and 2006 Tour podium finisher, and now super-domestique deluxe; Yaroslav Popovych, 8^th place in the 2007 Tour, while riding for Contador and Leipheimer, he has also won a stage of the Tour on his own, and finished 3^rd in the Giro…a great Tour support rider in the mountains. Don’t forget about Haimar Zubeldia, twice 5^th in the Tour, as a great time-trialist and climber. This team is constructed to do nothing short of winning the Tour de France, and dominating the standings on paper.

Now, I will say that the questions over who would be the leader of the race may have been justified back in August, when Armstrong announced his return, but I also believe that the current queries are now just coming from journalists who need to stir things up.  Putting myself squarely in Bruyneel’s seat, I would say that Contador needs to be the leader of the team, as he is the one who is the best prepared to win the Tour.  The riders are all saying the right things, deferring to Bruyneel, or saying that the race will decide. In the end, though, I believe that this team is comprised of the utmost professionals, and they will do their job.  It could be interesting the first week, should either Armstrong or perhaps Leipheimer take real time out of Contador in the first time trial, and then be in a position to take yellow after the team time trial.  There are two things I see happening here, should this happen.  First of all, Bruyneel knows not to try and keep the lead this early; it is too long a race to waste energy from a team with real ambitions.  Secondly, he would also be smart enough to realize that 10-20 seconds possibly gained in an early time trial (which would be unlikely given that Contador is the newly crowned Spanish time-trial champion), is nothing compared to the minutes that Contador can take from either one of them in the mountains.  It would be entertaining, but nothing to worry about.

The real question comes to what role Leipheimer and Armstrong will play in the mountains.  I have no doubt that they would ride for Contador if he were in trouble, but I would be more interested in knowing if they will be doing any real pulls at the front of the group when the contenders groups grow thin (or will Armstrong still be at the front).  Levi has shown an ability to follow the best in the mountains, but I am curious to know if they will attack at all, perhaps sacrificing their own chances to let the field chase them, softening up the road for Contador, or if they will quietly and efficiently follow the leader to the end of the hardest stages. In any event, it will be a show within the spectacle to behold, and perhaps overshadow the fight for the yellow jersey, where who is winning it is actually superseded by how he wins it.

PREDICTIONS

Before I get to my yellow jersey predictions, I will briefly examine some of the other classifications. While the general classification will take the final headlines, there is a reason why the Tour is the best race in the world: it has the best riders in it, all wanting the prestige of a stage win, or even one day on a podium.

GREEN-JERSEY (POINTS)

The points competition is based primarily on those won in the sprints.  I have sometimes been a bit conflicted about this competition, as the flat stages, designed for sprints, usually have more points on tap than the mountain-top finishes or time-trials.  This has become in reality the best sprinter competition, when sometimes the most consistent finishers have been some of the g.c. contenders.  With that in mind, I think that it is clear to anyone who follows cycling that one sprinter stands head and shoulders above the others right now: Columbia-HTC British speedster Mark Cavendish.  With a team who is skilled and willing in working to bring him to the line in the best position on the flat stages, he should be able to raise his arms in victory multiple times in the first week.  It wouldn’t be completely out of the question to possibly see him in yellow, if he has a decent time trial, and Columbia equals their team time trial victory of May’s Giro d’Italia.  The big question for Cavendish is not whether he will win stages, or even how many he will win, it is if he will make it to Paris to claim the green jersey.  I will say that he is definitely motivated to do so, and has made it his ambition, so with that in mind, I would say that it his competition to lose.  If he falters in the mountains, I would give secondary nods to last year’s green jersey winner, Oscar Friere of Rabobank, and past green jersey wearer Thor Hushovd. The Spaniard and Norwegian are both savvy enough to gauge their efforts, and strong enough to get through the climbs to finish.  With many of the best sprinters of recent years sidelined, including Robbie McEwen (injury), Tom Boonen (not allowed to ride), and Erik Zabel (retirement), it would be easy to think that the sprints would suffer, but I think we may see the emergence of a newer generation, including Italian Filippo Pozatto and American Tyler Farrar.

POLKA-DOT JERSEY (CLIMBER)

I will go on record and say that it has been a while since the winner of this jersey has actually been the best climber in the race, rather he has usually been someone who has been allowed to get away from the bunch and gather up points in breakaways, while the real contenders concentrated on the final climbs, or on each other.  To say that Virenque or Jalabert was actually a better climber than Armstrong for all of those years would be ludicrous; I would suggest that you have to go back to Tony Rominger or Claudio Chiapucci, who won them while finishing on the podium, to see a top climber who also finished on the podium (this excludes both Richard Virenque and last year’s winner, Bernhard Kohl, both of whom who have admitted to doping)

As such, it is hard for me to pick someone for this award, because the best climber in the peloton is currently Alberto Contador, but he will never waste his energy chasing this jersey.  A rider like Carlos Sastre or Andy Schleck, both of whom are at their best in the highest mountains, will likewise not vie for this jersey, when they have overall aspirations.  A rider like a Yaroslav Popovych, who might be used as a patsy in a break or two, could attract some points, but probably not day after day.

I read somewhere that Sylvain Chavanal might be a contender for this jersey: a good climber who is strong enough to get into the break on some of the mountain stages, but who will ultimately not be around on the final climb, but may be able to do this day after day. I will also throw out the name of Oscar Pereiro if he shows any form at all.  I know, not a convincing pick, but until a rider is no longer in contention for the overall, I don’t see a top climber being distinguished.  I would not be surprised to see a rider like Roman Kreuzinger or Denis Menchov finish with this either, or even Andy Schleck if he falters in the time trials.

WHITE JERSEY (UNDER- 25)

I think that this jersey is Andy Schleck’s jersey to lose.  A lot has been made over Roman Kreuzinger, who I think is a great talent, but hasn’t ever really shown his ability to be up amongst the best for three weeks. When you are dealing with overall time, I will concede that Kreuzinger is probably a better time-trialist, but he will lose real time in the mountains…Schleck will have to bomb not to win this.

YELLOW JERSEY

While I am not sure that the suspense for the final winner is there, I will still do my best to give you my picks for top 10 in reverse order.  Admittedly, several of these placings will probably be close, and could be muddled, but hey….there’s nothing wrong with making picks I want to see, either. So, here we go…..

10. Christian Vande Velde (USA- Garmin- Chipotle) Admittedly, this is a pick based on homeland favoritism, and not as much based on logic or on results this year.  I was impressed, though, with his ride last year, and I believe that he gained a lot of confidence on his ability to follow the best in the Tour, and that could help him when it gets tough. Unfortunately, his lack of fitness after his injuries in May could hurt him, but the course will help him ride himself into shape, with the tougher stages being in the 2^nd half.  A good start is key to his chances. 

9. Frank Schleck (Luxembourg- Saxobank) I am giving him this pick because I see him supporting his brother this year, and not the other way around.  Frankly (no pun intended), he has had a poor season, and he might not have the form to really be a contender this year, although if Andy is in contention, he will dig in as deep as he can, which may be good enough for a top 10 placing.

8. Kim Kirchen (Luxembourg- Columbia-HTC) While I don’t think that he will find the success he had last year, when he fought for early stages and wore the yellow jersey, I think he is a strong Tour rider who will quietly follow the leaders, and not make many mistakes.  He will do well to finish here, but I wouldn’t necessarily suggest that he advances from last year.  He will need to save his energy in the first half, and be aggressive in the second half.  Perhaps he will take a dig at the polka-dot jersey?

7. Lance Armstrong (USA- Astana) Alas, this might be the best that the 7-time Tour champion will finish, if he is fortunate.  His strengths include experience and panache, which could conceivably put him in the top 5, but after watching him in the mountains in Italy, I don’t see him matching the absolute best.  If his training has allowed him to recover from the Giro, he could still vie for a stage, maybe, but there are too few time-trial kilometers for him to contend for much more.  With that in mind, I don’t see him actively sacrificing himself for Contador, or even for Contador to need it.  Armstrong will ride as a 3^rd in command, and while not being a purely protected rider, he will perhaps be given his opportunity to take a chance at a stage win (by his team), should he fall out of contention in the mountains.

6. Andy Schleck (Luxembourg- Saxobank) Pundits seem to like him as a real podium contender, with Cycle Sport picking him 2^nd.  To me, I think he may be the 2^nd best climber in the race, but he will need to demonstrate more in the time-trial to distinguish himself.  He has enjoyed a good season, and is on good form, but I wonder if his team is as strong as in the past.  Last year, they benefited by having three cards in the leader’s hand, and played off each other on Alpe d’Huez en route to the Sastre win.  This year, I see Schleck as being the clear leader, and I wonder if he has the mental strength to deal with this. A good rider, and a future contender still, but he hasn’t proven himself to me, YET.

5. Denis Menchov (Russia- Rabobank) Frankly, Menchov looked really good at the Giro last month.  Very strong in the mountains, and unbeatable in the time trials.  Unfortunately, this may be part of the problem…he looked TOO good.  I have to wonder if he didn’t spend too much of his energy in Italy.  He will be a player in the race, but I have to wonder if he will be able to attack in the Alps and gain time over his rivals to finish much higher than this.  I have to think that he may have hit a peak already. That being said, if you are not going to win the Tour, a Giro win and a Tour top 5 placing is pretty good consolation.

4. Levi Leipheimer (USA- Astana) This may be too high of a placing, but I am banking on some serious gains in the time trials.  Levi looked tired in the second half of the Giro, but on the flip side, I think that when he realized that he was not going to win, I didn’t see him killing himself either.  He is also on the best team, and will be one of the last riders with Contador day in and out.  He showed in Spain last year that he can follow the best, but will never attack his leader.   A podium placing isn’t out of the question, unless he has to sacrifice his own chances to help Contador.

3. Cadel Evans (Australia- Silence Lotto) I think that Evans’ chance to win the Tour is gone.  He had has best shot last year, and he was beaten.  He has absolutely no team to support him in the mountains, and as evidenced at the recent Dauphine, while he has tremendous form, he cannot win the race on his own.  Like Leipheimer, he is one of the best time trialists, but will never be able to out climb the specialists.

2. Carlos Sastre (Spain- Cervelo) This spot is given to him in honor of his being the defending Tour de France champion.  It is worth stating that he was the most consistent rider last year, on the best team, and he really only one the race on one day.  I can say here, with no disrespect, that he beat the field that showed up, but would not have beaten Contador, nor do I believe that he would have beaten Leipheimer.  With that in being said, he has proven himself a worthy champion, and has ridden well this year, with several strong days in the Tour of Italy.  Even though he may be one of the most consistent Grand Tour riders of his generation, and he is clearly closer to the end of his career than the beginning, his win seems to have elevated his confidence and his stature.  His new team, while not as strong as Saxobank, is solid, and will support him alone. He could conceivably ride the final slopes of Mont Ventoux, trading the stage win for the overall winner….

1. Alberto Contador (Spain-Astana) Contador will lose this Tour only if he has bad luck with crashes, injury or illness.  It will NOT be due to lack of preparation (he has reconnoitered all of the key stages a la Armstrong), lack of form (he earned a decidedly low-key 3^rd place in the recent Dauphine Libere where he simply followed the best wheels w/out any attacking), or lack of team support (see above….the best team in the world for stage racing).  He will have to deal with the pressure of having the favorites tag on him from Day One, but he had no problem with that in last year’s Giro or Vuelta.  Ignore all of the talk of team infighting, Johan Bruyneel knows where his golden meal-ticket is, and it is with Alberto Contador.  The question here lies with the issue of how aggressive he is, and when. Contador has the unique ability to crush the field in the mountains by making repeated attacks on the worst slopes until he is alone.  Being older and wiser, he may get the lead and ride conservatively to defend it, only to explode the race on Mt. Ventoux, but my money says that he will get antsy before that, and blow it up before that, making the final slope more of a victory march than a final shot at overall victory. Leipheimer, Armstrong, Kloeden and Popovych will provide solid support, but in the end, he will win this race despite them, not because of them.

In conclusion, I make these predictions based on reputation. It is a three week race, and things will change.  There are several good riders who could find themselves on this list (i.e.: Roman Kruezinger, Andreas Kloeden, Oscar Periero, Samuel Sanchez, Luis Leon Sanchez, Franco Pellizotti, Michael Rogers, Tadaj Valevic or even Yaroslav Popovych).  The great thing is that things will happen that we don’t expect.  Riders will have good days and bad…relative outsiders will make inroads on the leaders, while favorites crack.

 

I look forward to another exciting race.  Look for daily accounts and analysis of the race over the next three weeks, and sit back and enjoy.  It looks to be one helluva ride!!!!