Tour de France 2009- Final Thoughts & Analysis

This morning, the 96^th edition of the Tour de France, came to a close, as always, with a sprint down the Champs Elysees in downtown Paris.  Alberto Contador of Spain wrote his name into the history books as the 2009 champion, and joins a select group of riders who have won multiple Tours de France.  According to the official records, he is the fourth consecutive Spaniard to have won the race (although I still contend that 2006 winner, Oscar Pereiro, is not the winner…with the exclusion of Floyd Landis, I contend that the placing should be left vacant, or with an asterisk, but that is another story for another time).  American Lance Armstrong returned to the Tour for the first time since he won it in 2005, and at the age of 37, capped a phenomenal comeback with his 3^rd place finish.  Astana was the top team, with the first, third, and sixth place finishers on G.C. (and certainly would have added Levi Leipheimer to that mix, had he not crashed out at the end of stage 12), Andy Schleck took the best young rider’s white jersey with his runner-up finish, Italian Franco Pellizoti took a well earned win in the mountain’s competition, while Norwegian Thor Hushovd eked out a win in the points competition, by a scant ten points over six-time stage winner, Mark Cavendish.

This is the gist of what most archives will store about this great race.  For me, this was Tour #23, and while I won’t say it was my favorite edition since I have been following, it wasn’t without its highlights.  A decade from now, this may become even more significant, as we look back over a career of dominance by Alberto Contador, who has proved that he is absolutely the best stage racer in cycling. I won’t go forth to guess how many Tours he will win, but I will say that it seems right now that only Andy Schleck is close to him on the climbs, and is not yet on par in the time trials.  It is conceivable that we may see another Armstrong/Ullrich like rivalry in the making, or perhaps another Indurain/everybody else type situation.  Even Armstrong admitted that in his best days of 2001, 2004 & 2005, Contador would have been tough to defeat.

Only time will tell, but it is conceivable, but this may very well be the last hurrah for Astana (and the model built by Bruyneel in the USPS/Discovery for the last decade).  With the expected return of Khazak Alexandre Vinokourov, who has announced that he will be riding the Vuelta a Espana in September, it will be interesting if Bruyneel continues as all.  My guess is that he will follow Armstrong to Team Radio Shack next year, but the difference will be that he will not have the odds-on favorite to win the race on his team any more.  Contador will certainly find a team who will promise him a protected status in the Grand Tours.  I have heard rumours about Garmin-Slipstream, although my guess is that Caisse d’Epargne may be more to his liking, as a Spanish team, and one who may be looking to replace the suspended Alejandro Valverde, if his suspension is upheld.  This brings me to the one theme which really defined this race, to me:  the dominance of Astana.

Rarely has one team so dominated the race from Day One in the history of the Tour, and been able to place several riders high up in the rankings.  The 1986 La Vie Claire team, to me, still holds the standard, when they went 1^st, 2^nd, 4^th, 9^th and 12^th.  It is notable that in that year, there was also the infighting for leadership, as was rumored this year on Astana.  It was a bit more contentious then, with Greg LeMond and Bernard Hinault actually attacking one another, and the team separating into different factions. This year was a bit more controlled, more professional.  Armstrong did not attack Contador, and there were a couple of stages in which he might have attempted to go with Contador in the Alps, if he had not been compelled to sit back in a defensive mode and watch his rivals.  I will say that Contador returned the favor on Mont Ventoux, and did not attack, even though he may have been able to go for the stage win and pad his lead even more.  I’m not sure that Contador showed as much patience overall as he could’ve, but in the end, putting riders in the first, third and sixth positions was a remarkable achievement.  I am still convinced that Levi Leipheimer would have also been up there, and the race was different in his absence.

You could also look at the 2007 Discovery team of Contador’s first win.  This was a strong performance as well, with Contador being joined on the podium by Leipheimer in 3^rd, and Yaroslav Popovych taking 8^th.  The team won the team prize, and won multiple stages.  The difference, though, is that team did not go into the race with a defined leader, nor did the expect to win the race per se.  The race dictated that Contador became a protected rider, but one may remember that they did not have to defend his jersey for long, with him only taking it in the last few days.  The end results looked very strong for the team, but they really rode as opportunists, rather than as patrons.

You could make a case for certain other editions of the USPS team of Lance Armstrong’s reign.  He had years when he was joined in the top 10 by riders like Roberto Heras, or Jose Acevedo, or in the top 20 by Floyd Landis, George Hincapie or Jose Luis Rubiera.  Those teams worked as oiled machines, and ruled the peleton with strength and precision, picking their moments, and flexing their muscles only to support their sole leader.  The difference, though, for the run of USPS teams, is that rarely did any of the support riders get any of the glory with a stage win or wearing of the jersey.  Their own positions in the standings were more or less sacrificed in order to help Lance win.  It really wasn’t until the 2005 Discovery team that other riders, like Paolo Salvodelli and George Hincapie, got a chance to go after personal glory in stage breaks, although doing so still acted as a means of supporting the yellow jersey, and forcing other teams to control the peleton.

Perhaps the only other example of true team dominance I can think of that might even rival this year is the race ridden last year by CSC, with Carlos Sastre, and the Schleck brothers.  That was a different type of strength though, because they did not truly control the peleton on a day to day basis, as much as they forced the top climbers to watch after three potential riders in the mountains, and then came up good with one of them.  The rival teams, last year, were not strong in nature, and it was very hard for them to combat this type of challenge

I’m sure that Team Radio Shack will be well organized, and I hope that Armstrong can attract many of the riders from Astana, because they are proven strong riders, and highly professional. I am excited to have another American Pro-Tour team, and I hope that Armstrong can also attract some younger talent to start grooming.  Taylor Phinney looks promising down the road, but if there is something else that this race showed, it is that Armstrong, contrary to everyone in the media thinking so, is no longer a real contender to win the Tour.  He made a strong presence, much better than I expected, but he did soon experience, guts, and team support. (not to forget a :41 second gift on Stage 3, which ultimately made the difference between being on the podium or not). More importantly, while still respected, I believe that he has lost his aura of invincibility in this race.  There are riders like Contador, both Schlecks, Vincenzo Nibali, and perhaps Bradley Wiggins who were not afraid of him.  He still has a competitors spirit, and immense pride, but physiologically, it is clear that time is catching up with him.  His presence was great for the race, but to really serve the American public, if not the sport as a whole, he needs to work towards developing another champion.  Bruyneel is the best manager in all of sport, and I wonder why more teams have not adapted more of his methods in managing a team, although maybe he is able to get the best riders because of the respect he has earned, and indeed, because maybe he is just still smarter than some of his European contempories.

A few last random thoughts about this year’s race, as I tuck it away, and begin my 11 month wait until next year’s edition.  We saw the emergence of new, exciting, upcoming riders, just as we saw the windows of opportunity pass for former challengers.  You can list Andy Schleck as Contador’s number one contender, but do not discount Nibali, Krueziger, and maybe Wiggins (I am still not sold on him as an overall contender, rather possibly a beneficiary of strong form, and low expectations). You can cross off names like Denis Menchov, Carlos Sastre, Cadel Evans, Kim Kirchen, and maybe even Frank Schleck.  Most of these riders are getting up their in age, and have shown that their best days are behind them.  Don’t even talk to me about guys like Michael Rogers or Linus Gerdemann, who are threats to win in the mountains, but will never challenge for this race.  I give strong marks to the French (I know, it is rare), who did not challenge for the overall, but did stick one of their riders, Christophe Le Mevel, into the top 10, and also won three stages.  It is hard to ignore the exploits of Mark Cavendish, who was clearly the best sprinter in the race, and only missed out on the green jersey due to a judge’s questionable relegation.  I do believe that we are witnessing a rider of historical significance, especially if he can manage to keep a team like Columbia-HTC together to support him.  They may not have had an overall contender this year, but six stage wins suggests to me that they made their mark, and should have pleased their sponsors.

As for the Americans, there is little more to write about Armstrong, and Leipheimer.  We saw strong performances from both Christian Vande Velde, and George Hincapie as well. It is almost too bad that Vande Velde is as old as he is, because I would hesitate to call him a contender in the future as well, only because he will not get much better than he is now.  Like Levi Leipheimer, I will say that he is one of the better stage racers in the world, but are both probably too old now to realistically have a shot at winning this race.  It is interesting to note that in his 14^th Tour, George Hincapie had his second best race finish, at 19^th.  It was an exciting day to see him almost take yellow (perhaps a testimony to his career of “almosts”), but he rode a solid race to both support Cavendish on the flat stages, and keep himself in the race, with a respectable finish.  He apparently does not have a contract next year…I wonder if he will find himself in Radio Shack colors next year.  There were apparently questions regarding whether or not this was his last Tour.  If it was, it was a good one, in which he made his mark on the race, and in the same vein, I would love to see him ride one or two more, and be able to say goodbye to him properly. Tyler Farrar is an exciting young sprinter, and reminds me of Davis Phinney from the 1980s.  It is great to see an American in the sprints, as we now have challengers on all types of stages, mountain, flat, time trials, and sprints.  I will also mention that I was/am impressed at the professionalism of Garmin-Slipstream.  While they are a relatively young team, they are incredibly well managed, and it is a great substitute to root for on those days when Astana is not grabbing the headlines. It will be interesting next year to have three American teams next year at the top of the sport to cheer on, and a win-win situation for us American fans.

Lastly, I am grateful for the fact that I believe that we witnessed a drug-free race.  I hope this is the case, but when I watched the riders, it was believable….they were human.  Most of the riders had their good days, and they had times when they suffered.  I will say that I believe in the testing, and given that Astana was virtually tested daily, I would like to believe that we saw a race that was won with their legs, and their minds, and not with chemical enhancement. I only hope that the next generation to follow can continue to do so as well.

And thus, as I go on to enjoy whatever the rest of the season brings us, I begin my countdown to the first Saturday in July, 2010, when the Tour recommences in Holland…

Vive le Tour.

Tour de France 2009- Stage #20

Today’s penultimate stage, finishing up the barren slopes of the Giant of Provence, Mont Ventoux, promised to be exciting.  This mountain has always been dramatic, and has proven significant in the Tour de France in past editions.  With 34 seconds separating 3rd-6th places on general classification, I expected a big battle on this climb.

This is generally seen as one of hardest climbs in cycling, and coming at the end of a very hard week, or even an exhausting 3 weeks, there was the potential for the possibility of significant time gaps.  In the end, though, the battle was actually fairly defensive in nature.  Neither Contador nor Andy Schleck challenged each other, choosing to accept that nothing would change their 1st and 2nd places in the standings.  The attention was given to who would earn the final podium position.  Armstrong was in the drivers seat, with a small lead over Wiggins, Kloden and most importantly, Frank Schleck.  There was the potential for relentless attacks going up the last climb of the Tour, with the third podium spot the prize for the one who would ultimately be the strongest at the end.

Schleck was the obvious choice to do the most damage on the climbs, based upon the earlier Alpine stages.  Amstrong and Wiggins have proved resilient, and Kloden was most likely one to support his teammates.  With a 34 second lead, Armstrong adopted a defensive position on this climb, and glued himself to Schleck’s wheel.  Andy Schleck repeatedly animated the group with relentless attacks, hoping to open something up for his brother, but Contador shadowed his wheel, never allowing a gap, and never taking an offensive position.  Wiggins was obviously the most vunerable, without real team support in the final kilometers, and he had to dig in deep to maintain a three second hold on his fourth place overall, the highest a British rider has ever finished in the race.  In the end, Frank Schleck never really showed the ability to attack, and while it was unclear if he stopped trying, or was unable, it was clear up on the top of the mountain that the podium was set.

I found it interesting that the top 7 riders in the race were able to separate themselves from the rest of the race.  This allowed lower placed riders, starting with the 8th placed Christian Vande Velde, to watch each other, in order to preserve their own positions. It is clear to me that the top 7 riders, including 7th placed Vincenzo Nibali, were the elite class of this race.  In the last chance to make  a statement this year, Carlos Sastre and Cadel Evans were silent.  It will be interesting to see how the recover, or if their days of contending for Tour de France glory is past.  It has not gone unnoticed, at least by me, that Sastre’s 17th place finish overall is the worst title defense since Miguel Indurain finished 11th after winning his 5th title.  After finishing 2nd the last two years, I would be interested in knowing what, if anything, Cadel Evans will do in this race, or if he can realistically be considered a contender again.

I applaud Armstrong’s resiliency today, as even if it wasn’t as dramatic as mountain stages he has ridden in the past, he was smart, and unflappable.  It is conceivable that he might have been able to attack Schleck and Wiggins, but that might have opened himself up for a counterattack to which he could not respond.  It was clear that he knew that 3rd place was the realistic best he could expect today, and he rode with a strength and confidence which demonstrated to his closest rivals that he could not be shaken.  I will also give kudos to both Christian Vande Velde and George Hincapie for their rides today, and indeed for the results they have produced for three weeks.  Vande Velde has ridden gamely, despite a lack of fitness and form in recent months, to finish 8th, and become a domestique deluxe for Bradley Wiggins, who earned the leader’s title.  George Hincapie will finish with a 19th place finish, his second highest placing, in his 14th and possibly final ride in this race.  Despite having an injured shoulder, and needing to work for Mark Cavendish tomorrow, he rode a solid race to finish with Cadel Evans at 5:45 back.

Tomorrow, the race goes back to Paris, for the end of another edition of this great race.  I will be interested in seeing the end of the green jersey race, and if Cavendish will win another stage.  I am interested to see if he and Hushovd will go after the intermediate sprints to gain points, or if he will concede the green jersey race, in exchange for only concentrating on the stage win.

I thought today’s stage was interesting, although perhaps not as explosive and destructive as I might have thought.  Astana, Saxobank, and Garmin were agressive leading up to it, but overall, I think that the organizers failed to place it properly, in hopes of a final reshuffling of the classification.  This last week of the Tour was perhaps too loaded, in that much of the field ended up too dead to race by Tuesday, and with the time trial and this climb being a bit flat even for the leaders. I respect their creativity in designing the route, but I would like to see a change, with them going back to more time trial kilometers, preferably with one in the middle of the race, and then one on the penultimate day.

One day to go…..

Tour de France 2009- Stage #19

Transition stages usually are fairly predictable, especially near the end of the Tour.  A breakaway forms of riders who have done little for three weeks, especially from teams who have been relatively anonymous.  They gain a couple of minutes, and they cruise in to gain a much needed victory.  The overall pictures goes on unaffected, as the leader thinking about the final weekend.

In some ways, today wasn’t too abnormal.  A break did form, and did gain some time.  With Mont Ventoux on the horizon tomorrow, and with a field exhausted by a week in the Alps and following yesterday’s time trial, few riders were too interested in expending any unnecessary energy.  This led to some of the less successful teams, like Rabobank, policing the field and keeping the breaks in check. The surprises actually came at the end of the race.

The organizers saw fit to through in an interesting 2nd category climb in the last 20km of the race, enough to break up the field.  No one seemed to think that today would result in a field sprint, but Mark Cavendish did not appear to care much about those plans.  He won his fifth stage of the year, and ninth in only two years, in impressive form.  What I found to be even more impressive was Lance Armstrong’s attentiveness in contesting the sprint, on the off-chance that there might be a split in the field.  In the end, he did earn 4 seconds on his closest rivals, and in a race which is celebrating the 20th anniversary of the closest race in history, won by 8 seconds, it is highly conceivable that a podium place may be earned by a similar margin.

I haven’t talked much about the green jersey race, given the excitement of this week.  I will say that I was a bit bummed last  week when Mark Cavendish was relegated, because I felt as though it essentially was ending the competition early.  I thought at that time that the only remaining sprint would be on the Champs Elysees, and that he would not make up the losses he had incurred.  I was very impressed on Wednesday that Thor Hushovd went on the offensive to score some intermediate points, and essentially justify his lead in the competition.  I doubt very sincerely that Cavendish will close a twenty-five point lead on Sunday, but at least it becomes slightly closer competition, and one worthy of watching.

Of course, I am waiting for tomorrow, for the epic journey up the barren, moonlike slopes of Mont Ventoux, and where the story of the Tour will have it final general classification battles settled. I am not going to make any predictions, but I am sure it will be entertaining to see what the Schlecks may try, and how well Astana will react, and indeed, who may fall away or blink first.

Tour de France 2009- Stage #18

Time trials are usually the stages that make or break the standings of a Tour de France, especially near the end of the race, when everyone is tired, and still fighting for final positions.  Usually, it is done on the penultimate day, where the final standings generally indicate the final shuffling of the race standings.  This year, though, things were different.  First of all, the time trial was done on the day following the toughest mountain stage. Secondly, it was a fairly short time trial, at 40.5 km, instead of the 50-60 km variety.  Lastly, Saturday will play host to perhaps the toughest summit finish in the France, at Mont Ventoux, and as such, it is reasonable to expect some more changes in the standings.

I will start by saying that for the most part, my predictions were way off. This is why the race is run, though.  The exciting part of today was that the 3rd-6th place standings are now separated by a mere 35 seconds, with Armstrong moving back onto the virtual podium. First of all, I totally underestimated Contador, who looked phenomenal.  He was strong and fast throughout the entire race, and to beat a specialist like Fabian Cancellara is something special to begin with.  I thought he had stamped his authority in the race, and would take a top 5 placing, and defend on Mont Ventoux.  He is riding this race in the manner of the Armstrong of old, and will come out a deserving winner.

I also need to give credit to both Schlecks, who exceeded my expectations.  Neither of them are renowned time trialists, and for Andy Schleck to only lose 15 seconds to Armstrong, and for Frank to stay within a minute is exceptional.  They are both clearly on form, and are actually in good position to go 2-3 on the podium. I think their performances on this stage are partially due to good form, and partially due to high motivation. On the flip side, I thought that Armstrong, Kloden and Wiggins, all of whom had everything to gain, were only average.  Knowing that the time trial was where they needed to make a serious buffer, I thought that lower top 10 placings for Kloden and Wiggins, and 16^th place for Armstrong, showed some chinks in their armor, so to speak.  I will concede that I thought that many of the riders who rode so hard to the finish on Wednesday showed some fatigue in the 2^nd half of the course, but nevertheless, I was not overjoyed by the result.  I would have liked, truthfully, to have seen a 50 km time trial, where some of those gaps would have been opened.  What this has done, though, is to make for a heck of a battle for 3^rd place, with Armstrong, Wiggins (@ :11 seconds), Kloden (:13) and Frank Schleck (:34).  I felt like it was clear that the speedsters had some of their power sapped from the attacks of Wednesday, and it will ultimately be mano-a-mano on the slopes of Mont Ventoux.  Truthfully, if I were Bruyneel, I would approach it by lending some support to Armstrong and Kloden to try and get them on the final podium.  This might include letting Kloden attack, because if he got away, he would move up.  If he didn’t, there would still be riders there, perhaps, to support Armstrong, and counter the attacks of Wiggins and Frank Schleck.  Either which way, it is going to be a great battle, and a final weekend shakeup that may be unlike many we have seen before.

OTHER ISSUES

The Tour de France is a great podium from which make other announcments.  The news from the last few days has not all been good.  I will acknowledge that I am really pissed off to hear that Danilo DiLuca was found positive for CERA during the Giro d’Italia.  I made me think of my feelings last month, that when something looks to good to be true, it probably is.  His climbing explosiveness was unreal, and unfortunately, simply taking him out of the results doesn’t fix things for other riders.  His presence and his actions had real affects on the way the race was run, whether it meant causing attacks, or potentially causing riders to blow up, when they may otherwise been able to maintain the pace.  It means that for the fourth time in the last 5 years, a member of a Grand Tour podium has been expelled, and someone who should have rightfully had the glory of standing on the podium as a top-three finisher has been robbed. Given that this is a second doping-offiense, I hope his career is over.. I am sick of this shit, but in the same sense, I am glad that it is not stealing the big headlines away.

I will also say that I am a bit miffed that Alberto Contador is being questioned (read: accused) regarding his attack on Verbier.  Apparently, some writer did some crude calculations, and suggested that the amount of power needed to pull of that attack would be virtually impossible without the use of drugs.  Reporters asked him about his VO2 max, etc, and of course, Greg LeMond chimed in with his two cents (in writing).  First of all, there was little that was exact about these calculations, to the point where they could actually nail down how much energy it would have required.  Secondly, his performances over the past two years have shown his ability, and to suggest that he is doping here (where he has not failed any test, despite the witch-hunt that Astana has endured), would be tantamount to saying he doped in the 2007 Tour and the 2008 Giro and Vuelta.  I think it is fair to say, now, that he is the absolute best stage racer in the world, and he is developing much like Armstrong did, and that he will not be going away.

Lastly, I would be remiss if I didn’t respond to the news of the Radioshack team, for which Armstrong will be competing next year.  It is sad, in a way, because I believe it is probably the end of the super-team era. I think that truly, the return of Alexandre Vinokourov is the impetus for this breakup, and mainly because he insists upon having things his way.  I would be surprised not to see Johan Bruyneel at the helm of the Radioshack team, even though he has not yet committed.  What I am unclear on, unfortunately, is the status of the riders.  I don’t know, for example, who is still under contract to Astana, and if those contracts will be honored, or bought out.  I would hate to see Armstrong racing against Levi, and Popovych, and Horner, and even Kloden.  I understand that he and Contador cannot co-exist, and I do wonder how this will affect my feels toward the Spaniard. I have cheered him on, because I still considered Astana my favorite team, even if it was not American, and prior to this race, he has been a likeable, sympathetic figure.  I was happy that he won the Giro/Vuelta double last year, in a gesture to show up the Tour de France, who excluded him.  I was even sympathetic with him earlier this year, because I understand how he can rightfully consider him the best stage racer on the planet, and to have a former champion come back on the team, and try to make inroads on what should have been HIS team, has had to have been difficult.  I do think that certain actions on the road, though, have shown that he does not care as much about his team, though.  I was willing to live with the short attack to Andorra. The attack to the finish at Verbiers was a demonstration that he is the best, and got him the jersey. His burst, though, in the closing kilometers of the Colombiere on Wednesday, shed Kloden, and ultimately ended up costing his team, probably a podium spot.  Contador looked a bit sorry when he was on the bike, when he saw that Kloden was shed, but in the end, I understand it to have been a needless attack, when Kloden should have been able to stay with the group otherwise.  It was up to the Schlecks to attack, and I sometimes think the Contador needs to learn more patience in terms of when to use his energy.

In any event, I do hope that Radioshack becomes a fully-loaded Pro Tour team. I have been  pleased by Armstrong’s ride, even surprised. He has been fun to watch this year, and I don’t think that a finish in the 3-5 range will damage his legacy.  He is getting beaten by the best rider of this new era, and a second rider of considerable class. With that being said, though, he has also demonstrated (to me), that he is not really a contender for the Tour de France in the future.  He has benefited by having a strong team, and having a tremendous amount of courage and confidence.  He has struggled though, to match the absolute best climbers, and has been just average in the time trials.  I don’t expect him to ride for more than another year or so, and I hope that he will help attract top talent, so that there can be a team we can be proud of.  It is important to acknowledge that we are headed into a new generation, and it will take a lot of work for the new generation to match what the best Americans of this past decade have been able to accomplish. I guess in this sense, though, only time will tell.

Tour de France 2009- Stage #17

Today was as destructive a day as I have seen in the Tour de France in many years, in terms of eliminating challengers.  The course was about as difficult as one can imagine, with no fewer than five climbs to tackle through the Alps, and coming as the third consecutive day in the mountains, it was destined to make some real differences in the classification. While the stage started with the top ten only separated by a couple of minutes, this stage has virtually cemented Alberto Contador’s second victory, while making for some interesting battles for the lower positions, as the Tour tackles a 40 km time trial tomorrow (with no transition stage before it), before tackling the Giant of Provence on Saturday, to ultimately decide the race overall.

Each race starts with a number of favorites, with the title sometimes being more open in certain years than in others.  I have believed that Contador was the best rider from Day One, and he hasn’t done anything to dissuade me of that notion.  Interestingly enough, though, this race has actually come down to eight leading riders, who have all made their presence known throughout this race.  Nowhere in this list will you find the names of Carlos Sastre, who imploded today, or Cadel Evans, who finished today with the sprinter’s group some 27 minutes behind, or Denis Menchov.  I could, and maybe should, give credit to riders like Rinaldo Nocentini and Christophe Le Mevel, who both moved high into the standings after breakaways, and neither have fallen as far as I might have thought.  Even George Hincapie, who is no climber, is now the highest placed Columbia rider, holding 22^nd place, and still fighting for a spot in the top 20. The riders in the top 8 tonight, are the one’s I consider to be this year’s royalty:  Alberto Contador, Andy Schleck, Frank Schleck, Lance Armstrong, Andreas Kloden, Bradley Wiggins, Vincenzo Nibali, and yes, Christian Vande Velde.

Astana has controlled this race since the first day, and I don’t believe that there tactics have erred, in that it is likely that they will finish with three riders in top 6 in the race, if not all three on the podium.  They will certainly have the winner in Contador, and even though both Lance Armstrong and Andreas Kloden lost time today, and fell out of the top 3 overall.  In fact, I believe that the only mistake Contador has made in the entire race was to attack near the end of the Col de Columbiere today, presumably to test out the Schleck brothers, when ultimately, in shed Kloden, who may have otherwise been strong enough to ride with his teammate and two rivals to the finish, and would be in 2^nd place tonight.  Armstrong also played the dutiful teammate, and stayed back when Frank Schleck attacked, which also cost him, but also took Wiggins out of the overall title picture. That being said, Armstrong also demonstrated that his form continues to improve, and that he may yet have something to say about the order in the final standings.  I believe that had he not been saddled with team responsibilities, he may have been able to ride with Contador, the Schlecks and Kloden, but demonstrated the intelligence and integrity of a savvy veteran, and true teammate, by not dragging Wiggins back into the play.

 The Schleck brothers rode perfectly today, with Frank being given the stage, and Andy cementing his hold on the white jersey.  They both succeeded in dropping Bradley Wiggins, and putting in enough time into him (3:00+), to hopefully survive an onslaught in tomorrow’s time trial, or at least cede only enough time that they may regain on Mont Ventoux.  With both of the Schlecks now on the virtual podium, in 2^nd and 3^rd, they are in an interesting position.  They can both expect to lose time tomorrow in the time trial to all of the riders directly behind them.  They may even lose their podium positions tomorrow, but with the Tour essentially being decided this year on the road up to a mountaintop finish, it is conceivable that they may have the last word in terms of the podium, not Astana.

It will be an interesting battle tomorrow between the 2^nd through 5^th positions.  Each of them have a lot to ride for, and a lot will depend upon their recovery abilities.  Of course, I would naturally give Armstrong the edge in terms of experience, and perhaps history of riding final time trials, but it is by no means a given.  Wiggins is one of the best time trialists in the world, and Kloden has a history of riding them well also.  As it stands right now, the standings for the lower placings are as follows:

1. Andy Schleck
2. Frank Schleck @ :59
3. Lance Armstrong @ 1:29
4. Andreas Kloden @ 2:18
5. Bradley Wiggins @ 2:27
6. Vincenzo Nibali@ 2:43
7. Christian Vande Velde@ 5:42

It is very hard to determine how people will ride at the end of a race, when the motivation is highest.  I have not really be able to find other results, either from this year or last year, to make fair conditions, because I do believe that riders will rise to the occasion when the stakes are highest, and I think it is fair to say that all of these men are displaying fantastic form right now. I would make the following predictions, again, without putting Contador into the equation, because with a cushion of over two minutes from Andy Schleck and about 4:00-5:00 on Armstrong, Kloden and Wiggins, his yellow jersey is safe.

Of the top 7 riders listed above, I would believe that the order of finish would be something like this:

1. Wiggins
2. Armstrong @ :20-:30
3. Kloden @ :35-:45
4. Vande Velde @ 1:00-1:15
5. Nibali @ 1:00- 1:15
6. Andy Schleck @ 1:30- 2:00
7. Frank Schleck @ 2:30- 3:00

This might result in a top 8, going into Mont Ventoux which looks something like this:

1. (Alberto Contador)
2. Armstrong @4:00?(Lets assume that Contador is on a similar level in the TT)
3. Andy Schleck @ 4:00
4. Bradley Wiggins @ 4:30
5. Andreas Kloden @ 5:20
6. Frank Schleck @ 5:30
7. Vincenzo Nibali @ 7:00
8. Christian Vande Velde @ 9:00

Now, there is nothing particularly scientific about these guesses, although I did reference the gaps in the first stage, and tried to make an educated guess about how those could be different in a time trial that is almost three times as long.  As you can tell, nothing should be set in stone after tomorrow.  One of the favorites could really blow the others away, and/or the Schleck’s especially, could blow up and lose serious time. I can only wonder, though, with the yellow jersey secure, and the Schleck’s certain to attack on Saturday, would Astana conceivably work to protect either Armstrong and/or Kloden in a bid to secure a second  (or third) podium spot?

In reality, Nibalia and Vande Velde are secure in their spots. Neither will move up, and they should both be able to maintain their spots, at least until Mont Ventoux.  I list them here, though, because compared to the other riders who have come and gone this year (Evans, Sastre, Menchov, Kirchen, etc), they have made their marks well.  Nibali has consistantly ridden in the second group in the highest mountains, and finished today with Armstrong, showing that he is rider with a lot of class.  If it were not for Wiggins, who is definitely the find in this Tour, he would be one of the big talking points.  I also want to give credit where it is due to Christian Vande Velde.  He started this race as a favorite, and has ridden solidly throughout.  He is not in the contending position he was a year ago, but given his lack of pre-race conditioning, he has ridden better than many of the so-called favorites.  He has transitioned well from a protected rider, to a domestique deluxe, doing all of the heavy pace work on the final climb today, to keep Wiggins in with a chance of contending.  Even though he fell back in the last 20 km, he kept his position on the road, and should finish the race in the top 10, a tremendous finish.

I do wish to emphasize that unlike past Tours, the final time trial is NOT the final act in this epic saga.  While the advantage swings to Astana tomorrow in the time trial, the Schlecks will still have one more serious card to play on Saturday.  As Kornheiser used to say in ths Washington Post, my picks should not be used for any gambling purposes, and are only meant for fun and consideration.

Any which way, today was a huge day in this race, and tomorrow should also be eventful as this stage looks to mold the final standings in this year’s Tour de France.

Tour de France 2009- Stage 16

Another day in the Alps, and more excitement in the standings.  Stage 16 of this year’s race may not have ultimately decided the top standings, but it did make some differences, and it all but ended the dreams of some riders. The course was daunting, with a hors category climb to start the race, a long descent, and then another 20+km climb, before ending with 30 km of descending to the finish.  Upon looking at it on Sunday, I didn’t expect that today’s stage would do that much damage, since tomorrow’s stage will be incredibly hard, and I assumed that the favorites would stay together on the last climb, with the descent being so long to the finish.  I was wrong.

It occurs to me that the race tactics over the next few days will not actually depend as much on what Astana does, as it will on the actions of the other rival teams. Saxo Bank and Garmin are still in prime positions with Andy Schleck and Wiggins, not to mention both Frank Schleck and Christain Vande Velde respectively.  It will clearly be up to the both of those team, and perhaps even Liquigas, to go on the offensive tomorrow, in hopes of isolating Contador, and shedding away the rest of the field.  I have to give extreme credit to Andy Schleck, in that he has really risen his game to an elite level this year.  He is proving to be an explosive climber, and while I don’t think that he can beat Contador, I have to wonder what he may do tomorrow and Saturday.  He attacks explosively, which does not bode well for the riding style of Armstrong, or some of the other favorites. Bradley Wiggins is also still a surprise, with his ability to follow the moves of the best riders.  Contador showed today that he is still the absolute favorite, as he looked calm and cool all day, never needing to attack, and simply follow the wheels of his rivals when they made the moves.

I have a new-found respect for Lance Armstrong 3.0.   I was a bit worried about him after Sunday’s stage, and when the attacks came near the top of the 2nd climb today, he was dropped immediately.  I was impressed that Astana had actually chosen Kloden to go with Contador, perhaps realizing that Armstrong’s highest level may not be suitable for keeping with the leader.  Just when I thought that Contador was going to take more time from Armstrong, and more importantly, the other leaders, and that Armstrong could fall as far as 6th or 7th in the GC, he rode across the gap as if he was five years younger.  He waited until he knew he could sustain his efforts, and did not want to give a free pass to the other riders, who ultimately bridged on their own, but still played the defensive game as a teammate, too.

With tomorrow’s queen stage looming, I do believe that there will be some monster changes.  I definitely think that today’s stage completely ended Cadel Evans’ hopes in this race, and his attention may ultimately be just to finish in the top-10.  He is still too dangerous let him get away in a long break, even if he could.  Riders like Martin and Nocentini continue to fall away, and riders like Sastre, Frank Schleck, and Christian Vande Velde crawl back into the top 10.  There will still be changes made, with the huge stage tomorrow, and the time trial to follow, so we will see not just who is strong, but who can recover and come out fighting again.  I suspect that this is the sort of race the organizers envisioned….to keep it relatively close for a couple weeks, and then have explosions each day for the last week.  This is what we have been waiting for, and I for one can wait to see how things shape up in the 24-48 hours.

The World According to Benjamin

The world can be a complicated place, even in the best of times.  My world, on a daily basis, is a busy one, filled with personal, professional and social pressures, good and bad.  I get used to multi-tasking, and having my attention drawn in umpteen different directions.  I long for days when I can kick back, put external pressures aside, and relax with just me, and my own thoughts.

Today, I enjoyed a rare stress-free afternoon, and went to visit Benjamin, my sister’s son, and my only nephew.  It was one of the first times I had ever visited, just with the purpose of seeing him play.  I have certainly gotten the chance to see him with a certain sense of regularity, usually at family functions at my sister or mom’s house, about every 3-4 weeks.  I am forever in awe of his continual development, as each time I do see him, he is able of doing something new.  It might be a new word, or some learned knowledge (ie: letters or numbers), or the ability to demonstrate some new skill.  I have never been around young kids on a daily basis, so to a certain extent, I am grateful to Sarah and Sean for allowing me to live a bit vicariously through them, in terms of being able to watch and enjoy the innocence of life at his age.

I watched him today at the playground, and I was overcome with just how simple his life is. I admit that most people enjoy this state of being when they are young, when their days generally  consist of eating, sleeping, playing or the like.  It made me realize that the world through his eyes is so much different than mine, or most adults.  I tried to put myself in his place, and unfortunately, I couldn’t.  But it is cool to think about.  Watching him eat from a bowl, using a fork, and drinking from his cup, with minimal assistance….he looked so content, and so proud of himself. Walking around the living room, going from one toy to the next, or crossing the room to the door, with no agenda to follow other than whatever sensory stimuli he chose to follow seems so cool to me.  I have no idea what is going on in his head, and unfortunately, he doesn’t speak well enough yet to really express himself, although it is clear to me that Sarah, Sean and Mom understand what he is saying. The sheer pleasure from getting in his little car, and being pushed down the street to the playground brought a grin to his face that did not disappate.  He looked left and right, pointed to this and that, all the while just enjoying being outside, going for a ride, and spending time with his father and uncle.  I can’t drive 5 minutes in my car without brainstorming what I need to do when I get to where I am going, or who I need to call back, or something I have to get done later.

At the playground, Benjamin looked like he was in pure heaven.  Sean had mentioned how much he liked to be outside, but it was amazing to me how good natured this fellow was, and how much energy he had.  He went on the swings, he played on the see-saw, he went down the slide, and he played on the playground, spinning wheels, and was genuinely enthralled by things that I would normally take for granted.  I wonder sometimes if he has a short attention span, but I also see times when he can be so focused on one activity, that it shows me that he is just a fun-loving kid. 

I love working with kids, and I hope that in some way, I help make a small difference in the lives of my students and athletes.  I don’t know if I could ever have the patience or energy to work with toddlers, and I sometimes wonder if I would have sound parenting skills.  With that in mind, though, there are so few things that give me more pleasure than watching Benjamin in action.  I just am so taken in by his exhuberance, his enthusiasm, his intelligence, and his natural sense of curiosity.  I am sure that his parents would suggest that he has times when he is less charming than others, but I will concede that I have not yet seen them.  I haven’t seen him sick, and I have not seen him overly cranky before.  To me, it is just such a treat to visit him, and refreshing to see the world through his eyes.

Through Benjamin’s eyes, I would imagine, that life is still somewhat routine, in that he still has to depend upon people to do alot for him, but other than that, it seems so simple.  Days filled with playing…figuring out which blocks go in what holes, or how to work the car elevator on your toy garage, or look at pictures of Curious George, even if you don’t know what the story is about.  It is about seeing only the good things in nature…the squirrels running through the yard, or the cars passing by, or maybe a big orange truck with strange men coming out of it to do loud work on a nearby street.  It is about seeing the world from the seat of a stroller or toy car, being pushed along by someone who is happy to help you, while you take in all the exciting sounds, sights, and colors that the world has to offer.  It is a world of trial and error, about seeing how things you try to do sometimes work, and sometimes don’t .  It is about a sense of pride or a big “YEAH” when you have done a good job, and seeing a big smile on Mommy or Daddy or Grandma’s face.  It is a world in which people are happy to drop what they are doing to spend time with you because they love you unconditionally, and love to share in the delight of seeing you grow up into a big boy. It is a world when alot of things are continually new, and will remain that way for a long time, until the clutter and stress of the adult world starts to crowd your brain and schedule.

I am sure that my Mom could tell me that I was this way too, 34 years ago.  I’m sure that Benjamin is not completely unique in his mannerisms, although he is incredibly special to me.  Obviously, I don’t remember much of my youth, although most of my earliest memories were from playing with my siblings, or being loved (read: spoiled) by my grandparents.  We do grow up, our lives, worlds and minds become complicated.  I’m not saying this is all bad, it is simply human nature. I want to thank Benjamin for the opportunity for me to reflect on the innocence of human life, through the eyes of a toddler, and allow me to recall the good things that come from a new life, which is as blank as a new canvass, before an artist paints upon it. Thank you for reminding me that there is something pure and unblemished in this world, and giving me a brief respite from a daily routine that is often cluttered with things that are often so much more complicated than the world I see through his eyes.  I so look forward to more afternoon’s like this one, and to the perceived joys and pride I will have in him as he continues to get older, and grow up, hoping only that he can maintain the simplicity and happiness that he holds today. What a wonderful thing to behold.

Tour de France 2009- Stage #15

At last, the final picture of this year’s  Tour de France is starting to take shape.  As we have waited for the last two weeks to see some real explosive racing, the last 8 km of this stage, up the climb of Verbiers in the Swiss Alps, we saw what the first two weeks could do:  separate the real contenders for the final victory from the pretenders.

I have suggested all along that Alberto Contador was the rider to beat in this year’s race, and despite all of the controversy in the media over the last two weeks, today, he proved it beyond a shadow of a doubt.  While the flat stages or occasionally the time trials can allow some riders to bluff a bit on their form, the mountains tend to tell the most about the strength of a rider, and when the climbs are most destructive, Contador again showed that he is currently the best rider in the world. To his credit, he probably put to rest all the nast y questions over Astana leadership, and created a situation where his team should all clearly be supporting him, even as they also hold the 2nd and 4th place overall, in Armstrong and Kloeden. (and yes, I still can’t help but wonder how things could be with Leipheimer in the mix).

To be fair, though, this race is far from over.  Between Tuesday and Saturday, the riders will ride three mountain stages and an individual time trial. There is alot of time for riders to rise and fall in the standings.  The best riders are those who recover well day after day. For certain, today weeded out most of the field, but there are still a number of riders who can contend either for the podium, or perhaps the top-10, even if the overall victory is now probably out of reach.

TODAY’S WINNERS:

Alberto Contador: Today couldn’t have gone any better for him today.  Besides winning the stage in a dominant fashion, he also established real supremacy within his own team.  With two teammates still close high in the standings, Astana is now is great shape, but he has to know that if the chips were down, he would be the protected rider.  Most importantly, he also sent a message to the rest of the field that it will be up to them to attack him to try and win, and with the seemingly effortless manner in which he scorched up the last climb, his challengers may indeed start to look at each other, and fight for the lower positions, in that dropping him on a climb may be something just short of impossible right now.

Andy Schleck: Perhaps for the first time in his career, Schleck has lived up to his reputation as a top-flight climber.  He may ultimately be the one rider who can challenge Contador on a climb, although despite his explosiveness, I still doubt his ability to actually drop him and take out the two and a half minutes he would need to take over the lead.  To his credit, though, he also looks like he is in a prime position to rise up perhaps as high as second overall in Paris, assuming that he doesn’t give up too much in the time trial.  We will have to wait and see how that turns out, but I would think that his climbing should at least negate any time he might lose to a rider like Evans, Wiggins or even Armstrong, and could find himself definitely in the podium mix.

Bradley Wiggins- Perhaps the biggest surprise of the entire Tour de France.  He has been a champion on the track, and had a reputation as a decent time-trialist, but he has never ridden through the mountains this strongly. I will say that he still has to prove he can do this day after day, but he has ridden well enough to gain the support of his team, and indeed, has yet to show any weakness at all. It would not be stretch to suggest that he could end up on the podium.

TODAY’S LOSERS

Christian Vande Velde- Vande Velde had looked pretty good for the first two weeks, but clearly, his lack of fitness after his Giro crash showed that he is lacking that upper 10% of form that could have legitimately made him a podium contender.  I won’t go so far as to say that I was surprised to see him slip back, as I did not expect him to climb with the same strength 2008, without doing the work.  Unfortunately, confidence and experience can only take you so far, and today really revealed where he is this year.  He may still end up with a top-10 placing, but his efforts will now be for Wiggins, and not himself.

Denis Menchov- I list the Giro d’Italia champion here only because it will be the last time that he is mentioned in regards the favorites.  He hasn’t shown the form that won him the Tour of Italy in June for the entire race, and today’s stage completely removed him from contention. It will be interesting to see if he picks himself up to fight for a stage win, but I would not be surprised at all to see him anonymously ride to the finish without a sound, if he finishes at all.

I won’t directly label yesterday’s top 2 riders, Rinaldo Nocentini and George Hincapie amongst the losers, even if they did tumble down the standings today.  Truthfully, both of them actually rode admirably, losing only 2:36 and 4:00 respectively.  Neither was expected to finish high up in the classification, and I would expect Nocentini, especially, to fall away from the top 10 this week, while he can look back proudly on his week in the yellow jersey.  George did not concede as much time as you might have expected, given his efforts of yesterday.  He has finished in the top 20 a couple of times in the past, and while he may still hang around the top 20-25 riders overall, his work will most likely shift back to supporting his teammates.

While he did lose over a minute and a half to Contador, I will not label Lance Armstrong as a loser today, either.  Today, he displayed what he really can do, and I will say that it was conducive to a man who is 37 years old, and fighting against men who are a decade younger.  He is strong, and he will still fight for a high position, but he is not a contender for victory.  He will work for Contador, and still follow the moves of the favorites, but he will not be mentioned (justifiably) as a contender for victory again.  I put Andreas Kloden in this same category.  Astana still has the strongest overall team in the race, but they also showed that when the race is at its hardest, that doesn’t mean that they are capable of simply bottling up all of the contenders without them even trying.

THE OTHERS:

Carlos Sastre remains somewhat of an enigma to me.  He was off the back when the attacks started, but clawed his way up to finish in the chasing group just behind Contador and Schleck, with Wiggins, Vincenzo Nibali and Frank Schleck.  He does not look like a Tour de France challenger, but he is riding the savvy race of a grizzled veteran, staying within himself, and may still find himself at or near a podium place.  It does remind me that he won the race last year, essentially, due to brilliance on one stage, and strong teamwork, more than from three weeks of dominance.

Cadel Evans is also riding a solid race, although still lacking in the agressiveness that he would need to win this race.  He has proven that he is good enough to follow some of the best, but not good enough to drop them.  He is not really a contender any more this year, and perhaps may have to admit after this year that his best chances to win are indeed in the past.

THis week will also tell how high younger riders like Nibali, Roman Kreuziger, Kim Kirchen and Frank Schleck may finish.  None are real contenders for victory, but are certainly all in a position to earn a decent overall finish this year.

With the rest day coming tomorrow, and a week to go, I will take this opportunity to review my predictions, and make some new ones, based on what I think may happen in this vicious week of racing to come.

	Pre-Race Predictions	Post Stage 15 Standings	Post Stage 15 Predictions for final
1	Alberto Contador	Alberto Contador	Alberto Contador
2	Carlos Sastre	Lance Armstrong- @ 1:37	Andy Schleck
3	Cadel Evans	Bradley Wiggins @ 1:46	Lance Armstrong
4	Levi Leipheimer	Andreas Kloden @ 2:17	Andreas Kloden
5	Denis Menchov	Andy Schleck @ 2:26	Bradley Wiggins
6	Andy Schleck	Rinaldo Nocentini @ 2:30	Carlos Sastre
7	Lance Armstrong	Vincenzo Nibali @2:51	Cadel Evans
8	Kim Kirchen	Tony Martin @ 3:07	Frank Schleck
9	Frank Schleck	Christophe Le Mevel @3:09	Vincenzo Nibali
10	Christian Vande Velde	Frank Schleck @3:25	Tony Martin
Points	Mark Cavendish	Thor Hushovd	Thor Hushovd
Climber	Sylvain Chavanel	Franco Pellizotti	Franco Pellizotti
Young Rider	Andy Schleck	Andy Schleck	Andy Schleck
Team	Astana	Astana	Astana

There is nothing terribly scientific about these predictions, but they do take into consideration some general observations from this morning, and also taking into consideration time gaps already existing. I do think that Armstrong will ride a good time trial, and put some time into Andy Schleck, but ultimately, the amount of time he is apt to lose on the climbs will more than make up for it.  Truthfully, I could see Armstrong, Wiggins and Kloden all shuffle positions.  All three will ride solid time trials, and with Armstrong and Kloden having to do duty for their team, seeing Wiggins move up to the podium is certainly conceivable.  I gave the Astana riders the nod due to their experience, but if Wiggins keeps riding well, the confidence he gains may be more telling than his lack of expertise.

In the next tier, I also believe that Sastre will edge out Evans in the mountains.  I do wonder at what point Evans may decide that he is not a real contender this year, and how that will affect him.  He should beat Sastre in the time trial, but Sastre should make up those losses on Mont Ventoux.  For both of them, though, it is clearly a step back from last year, and does again remind us that they were the best riders last year in a field that was not as deep as it is this year.

Likewise, the last three picks of Frank Schleck, Nibali and Martin reflect what they did today, and up until today.  These places could also shuffle some due to the time trial (especially for Schleck), and we could see riders like Vande Velde, Kreuziger or Kim Kirchen come back up into the fold.

The climbers competition has been basically what I expected: a fight between lesser riders who are not really prepared to fight out the last climbs, and who have gone after the earlier climbs.  To his credit, Franco Pellizoti is an established rider, with his podium placing in the Giro.  Like many riders before him though (see: Menchov, Denis or Simoni, Gilberto), he is proving that great form in June in Italy does not always translate into even better form in France in July.  I really like Egoi Martinez, but he is not talented enough to make the highest peaks late in the stages with the leaders.  Contador will end up in the top 3 of this competition, only be fighting the final peaks of stages like Mont Ventoux, and getting the double points on the hors category climbs.  He probably won’t close down Pellizotti’s lead, especially if  he scores more points, but it will prove to be a decent competition until the last end.

The judges essentially closed the book on the points competition yesterday, when they relegated Mark Cavendish for what they said was erratic sprinting.  I’m not sure if that be the case or not, but what it comes down to is this:  the best sprinter in the race now has an 18 point deficit to Thor Hushovd, the 2nd best sprinter.  Unless he tries to steal some intermediate points, which will be difficult for him to do, the race will go down to the final sprint in Paris.  A four point margin essentially is the difference between first and 2nd on the final day, but now, Cavendish would have to win the stage, and hope that Hushovd doesn’t finish higher than tenth, an unlikely possibility.

Andy Schleck will solidify his white-jersey lead, although I am impressed with the young riders this year in Nibali, Tony Martin and Kreuzinger.  It will be interesting to see how they develop as they get older, or if they end up being the generation of pretenders to what may ultimately become the Reign of Contador era.

As long as they continue to maintain Contador, Armstrong and Kloden in the top of the standings, Astana should be able to protect their team lead, which is justified, because they have clearly been the best team in the whole of the race since Day One.

With the rest day tomorrow, the race returns to the Alps on Tuesday, with a stage which contains two major climbs, but which finishes with a 30 km descent after the last 1st category climb.  It will be challenging, but perhaps not completely devisive, as riders who might become somewhat unhitched at the top of the climb may still return in the flight to the finish.  It will be a stage where contenders will have to be agressive on the 2nd climb, but which may ultimately not provide the same gaps as one might find on a true mountain-top finish.

On a slightly related note, I want to give kudos to my friend TK, who provided me with the means to check out the LiveTour Tracker from Versus.com.  As far as online coverage is concerned, it provides everything one could ask for.  Live coverage which is very similar to what you see on TV, only without the commercials.  The other thing you don’t get online, though, is some of the smaller interviews or informative pieces that Phil will bring you during the stage (ie: a look inside one of the team cars, etc), but it is still Phil and Paul bringing their expert coverage. You have the means to review standings, the race map/profile, and see where the pack and any breaks are in real time.  It is userfriendly, and very informative.  The only difficulties I had were the occasional moments when the digital feed would freeze, which were only slightly annoying.  I did miss some of the TV extras, but overall, I would give Versus and A+ for their set up.  Thanks, TK, for the look inside.

Tour de France 2009- Stage #14

Wow, today’s stage was a nailbiter, and I sit here now only feeling terribly disappointed for Big George Hincapie. On a stage in which no one expected much action besides a small breakaway, ending up with a  sprint finish, the fireworks were signficant, on the eve of the Alps.

The standings tonight show that George Hincapie finished 6th place on the stage, gaining 5:20, and slipping into 2nd place overall, just 5 seconds from the yellow jersey.  It was exciting, as the escape’s lead went up to a maximum of 8:00 or so, with just about 70 km to go.  It was an interesting break, with eleven teams represented, and some strong riders to provide some horsepower.  With no real overal threats, one might’ve thought that they would have been given their pass, since the teams of the best sprinters were represented up front, and the overall favorites had no need to chase, only to save their energy for tomorrow.  Even AG2R, with the yellow jersey on their team in Rinaldo Nocentini, were represented in the break.

What I couldn’t understand, tactically, was why the chasing started with Astana.  With George Hincapie in the virtual lead by nearly 3 minutes, the team came to the front to start the pursuit, before the yellow jersey’s team did so.  Armstrong stated afterwards that it was because they didn’t want the lead to climb to 10 or 15 minutes, but in the grand scheme of things, I’m not sure why they would care.  I will concede that team tactics should come before friendships, as I’m sure that maybe Armstrong or even Bruyneel may have felt a bit torn, having their former friend and teammate with the opportunity to take the lead.  With this in mind, though, there has been nothing to suggest that in the long run, Hincapie could ever stay with the top climbers on the hardest peaks.  Had Hincapie taken a two minute lead into the Alps, he may have defended it for a day or so, but it is unlikely that he would be an overall threat to an Astana victory in the end. To see him miss out by 5 seconds just shows how cruel the race can be to the dreams of some men.

Admittedly, there are plenty of men who have been in similar situations in the history of the Tour. Every year, we see breakaways get a lead, and the riders start to think of the spoils, be they a jersey or a stage win.  For many of these men, one day of glory can define their career forever, or perhaps a springboard to even great things  (see: Nocentini, Rinaldo) as they will never be the same.  For others, it can mean a reward for a career of toil, often in the service of others.  I think that for George Hincapie, it would have been the Tour gods giving him a gift for his work done over one of the longest Tour careers in history, one which has seen him deliver Lance Armstrong to seven victories, and Alberto Contador to another one.  It has seen him on three team trial victories, and at the head of the field over the last two years helping pave the way for Mark Cavendish’s success. While he has had one stage win of his own, plus one brief day in the yellow jersey, Hincapie is someone who has earned the respect of everyone in the field as being a strong and wily veteran, and one who will work tirelessly for his teammates, a consumate professional in every way.

George Hincapie is going to retire one of these years, and he will do so as probably one of the top American riders in history.  While he has never won a grand tour, he has had several high placings in the Tour.  He has been one the best in the classics in the last decade, even if he only has one victory, in Ghent-Wevelghem, to show for it.  He has transformed himself from a young sprinter, in to a true all-arounder, comfortable in the mountains, and capable of holding his own in a time trial.  While he will never win the great races that Armstrong, LeMond, or even Hampsten won, nor taken out the sprints that Davis Phinney did in his heyday, George has made his presence known in races throughout the entire season in Europe.  Much like Darrell Green did for the Redskins, he has been consistantly great, and a fantastic teammate and professional.  This is why I was so upset when he came up just short of the lead today. 

After the disappoint of today disappates, the excitement for tomorrow, and indeed for the rest of the week starts.  Phil Liggett mentioned this morning that he couldn’t remember ever going into the 15th stage of the Tour with nine seconds separating the top 4 riders.  Just about two minutes separate the top 10 riders, even if tomorrow should shake up the standings.  Looking at the top 10 alone, I don’t see Nocentini being up there after tomorrow, and I would expect Hincapie and Le Mevel (the frenchman in 5th, courtesy of today’s breakaway) to fall away.  I would expect to see Evans, the Schlecks and Sastre move up. It will be a huge test for those with questions marks, such as Wiggins, Martin and Vande Velde. With the exception of the rest day on Monday (when I will revisit my original predictions),  this week will see three days in the Alps, a time trial, a finish up Mont Ventoux, and then the final stage into Paris.  After a weeklong transition, the race really starts tomorrow, and we will see a potential reshuffling occur each and every day.

Tour de France 2009- Stage 13

After a week that was more or less transition, one in which I waited for the mountains, to see what Astana would do and how the overall picture would shape up, today I was reminded just how harsh the reality of the race can be.  To turn on the TV to find out that Levi Leipheimer, a real podium challenger, was out of the race, was a huge disappointment to me.  I absolutely love the way he rides, so cool, so strong, and the fact that he added one more threat to a team that was/is possibly the strongest in history only made the reality that he is gone all the harder to bear.

I guess one of the reasons I am bummed is that Levi rides like a true pro, and a grizzled veteran.  He really doesn’t make many tactical errors, and he had ridden intelligently, just waiting for the time to come.  Falling less than 3 km from the end yesterday, in a crash that was caused by someone else’s misdoing, makes me a bit madder, because I really don’t think that he deserved this fate.

But with this out of the way, the reality comes back to me that this is the way the Tour de France is.  The Tour does care about dreams or goals, and it doesn’t care about reputations or predictions.  Today the race revisited the mountains, albeit it the Vosges mountains, and not the giant peaks of the Alps.  The weather could have made for an epic stage, but instead, it kept any of the favorites from making any attempts on the descent, because they were not willing to take unnecessary risks.  Armstrong looked pretty good.  I am still unsure of exactly where he is in this race.  He doesn’t make mistakes, and he stays at the front.  I have to believe that he is gaining some confidence, but in looking at him climb, at one point I saw him huffing and puffing, and the next, pushing the pace at the front.  I just have to wonder how he will react when the Schlecks, or Evans, or Sastre (or Contador) makes a real attack.  I sort of feel like he is capable of following at the steady paces, and he is clearly strong, but I don’t know that we have really seen much in terms of what he is capable of doing in a really violent effort.

I also feel similarly about Christian Vande Velde.  He has quietly moved himself into podium contention by following the best, making few, if any, mistakes, and not wasted any energy.  He is one of the better time trialists, and is gaining confidence.  To me, though, I have also (semi) patiently waited through this week to get to the mountains.  I realize that the race does take its toll on the riders, and that while the race has not be as devisive as some have been in the past, I know that we are only a few days from a truly epic week.

I am still refraining from making any predictions, and I don’t know that Saturday will change much either.  Astana has still ridden a powerful, and brilliant race.  They have made few mistakes, and even w/out Levi, they still have strong support.  It may ultimately cause Kloden to make more of a sacrifice, but it is conceivable still that they could sweep the podium, if things go the right way. All three of their leaders are exceptional time trialists, and have shown to be strong climbers, with a team willing to work the front of the pack.

Rinaldo Nocentini has been the beneficiary of Johan Bruyneel’s wisdom, in that he has not been interested in pursuing the yellow jersey, and accepting the responsibility that goes with it.  This last week may be a career-defining week for Nocentini, who will most likely fall away on Sunday, as the favorites come to the fore. I believe that Sunday could be explosive, as we will see if a) Contador (or Armstrong) will attack, b) will other favorites take the iniative and go on the offensive, and c) how will Astana react.  I believe we will see an Astana yellow jersey, and those athletes who are pretenders to the race prodium may fall away, as the top contenders rise to the top.

One more “transitional” stage to get through, and then it will be six days of fireworks left to decide the race overall.