Tour de France 2008- Stage 17
Posted by Matt Gilchrist on July 23, 2008
Wow….what a day!!!! It’s been a long time since I have seen a Tour de France take 17 days to really take shape, only to see it turned upside down on one climb. I will say that I do not believe that the race is over at all. There are still several men who can win, and the top placings can all still be shuffled before Paris. With this in mind, I found it refreshing for one man to finally break the bonds of parity which have kept the leaders together for two and a half weeks, and make a real bid to win the race overall.
Much has been said about how l’Alpe d’Huez is the mecca of cycling, and how it could be the deciding factor in this year’s race, with it serving as the finish to the queen stage. Much has been written in the last couple of days about how today’s stage, being the hardest, also would be the last, if not best chance, for riders such as Carlos Sastre, Bernhard Kohl and Frank Schleck to take the time away from Cadel Evans and Denis Menchov, to give them the cushion they would to survive Saturday’s time trial in the yellow jersey. Despite being able to set up a perfect game plan, and knowing exactly what it would take to win, it is always a huge difference between creating strategy and executing it. Up until today, we have seen all of the favorites jockey around a bit, stealing a few seconds here or there from each other, but never really being able to gain an edge on one another. Today was the day that this mold may finally have been broken, and the fact that it was done so close to the finish may yet prove to be the masterful planning of a champion.
There are a few things worth examining after today. First of all, CSC continued to be as strong a team as we have seen in the Tour de France for years. It is interesting how agressive they have been able to ride, day after day, mountain after mountain, and still keep their stars reasonably fresh. This might be even a bit more impressive than USPS/Discovery at times, in that they have been able to support three strong riders, rather than just one. There has not been a hint of dissention between the Schlecks and Sastre; in fact, they have each had their opportunities to take time, and the other one always supported them as true teammates, during the attacks.
After today, I still don’t know if the Tour is won, but Carlos Sastre has, in my mind, made his championship bid, and in reality, has been the only won who has both been willing and capable of taking it the distance. Schleck had his chance earlier, and gained a slight edge, but could not deliver a knockout blow. Menchov has been unable to get away from Evans, and Kohl only elevated himself to his current position because he was in a lower position, and a bit of an unknown. I am actually very happy for Sastre, because he has always been a dignified rider, and a consistently strong competitor in the Tour, but this is the first time I have considered him as being capable of winning the Tour de France. I might feel sorry for Evans if he doesn’t win this year, in that he has really made no mistakes this year; he has followed the best in every move, and will probably ride the best in the time trial. Sastre benefitted from his team’s defensive moves this year, while Evans has virtually ridden alone, having to cover every move with a bullseye on his back.
I am also very pleased to see Vande Velde ride so well today. He was strong, and he was agressive. He never once looked to be in trouble, even if he failed to break free. When everyone was at their absolute limit, he never once faltered. It will be forever disappointing to know that he might have been on the podium, save for one bad patch yesterday, compounded by a crash that he caused. Of course, this is a race that doesn’t forgive. Valverde might have been on the podium, were in not for one bad day in the Pyrenees, but that could be said for alot of riders in the peleton. On the bright side, Vande Velde has still exceeded all expectations, and has kept the American flag flying prominently in a year when it seemed unlikely to do so.
Andrew (my brother) beat me to the punch, in terms of making some predictions. I would like to share his thoughts, and then respond, because I have my own analysis of what is likely to happen. Andrew wrote:
Looking ahead, it looks like it is still Cadel Evans’ race to lose.
Assuming that in the top 6 the good time trialists will take about 2 1/2 minutes (par, based on estimate derived from the results of the shorter stage 4 TT where about 1 1/2 minutes separated the TT-three from the climbing-three) out of the less-TT-inclined, it looks like the close battles are Sastre v. Menchov for 2nd place and F. Schleck v. B. Kohl for fourth.
Given a par of 2 1/2 minutes, unfortunately it looks like VDV will need an extra special day with a particularly lousy day for Schleck or Kohl to claim 5th.
Final GC could look something like this:
| evans | 0:00:00 |
| sastre | 0:00:56 |
| menchov | 0:01:05 |
| schleck, f | 0:02:20 |
| kohl | 0:02:29 |
| vandevelde | 0:03:07 |
I am not going to wholly disagree with his logic, but I will also say this: I believe that Carlos Sastre absolutely holds his destiny in his own hands. I am of the belief that the yellow jersey does give an added incentive, particularly on the last weekend of the race. 1:32 is a cushion, and I firmly believe that Sastre is of a suitable caliber to make a good run at victory. Evans will be inspired, no doubt, and I expect to see a closer fight than the margin above would suggest. I am not going to predict the winner, because it will go down to seconds. What I can say, decisively, is that when all is said and done, I believe that both Evans and Sastre will have gone through the entire race, making few if no errors, and the best rider will be determined champion. When looking at the time trials and the mountains, each rider will most likely have gained the time necessary to stake them to a victory, and the one who gained the most will get the crown.
I will say that I believe that this is now a two man race for the victory, with a few caveats. One, I am assuming that there will be no mechanical issues or crashes to hamper these riders (not a given). Two, I am going to assume that there will be no positive tests come up that state that either of them cheated (again, I would love to assume this, but maybe this is the climate we are in, when I naturally have to at least entertain a thought that a strong stage isn’t chemically enhanced). Three, I will assume that none of the favorites are able to steal any seconds on Thursday or Friday. On paper, these are transistion stages, but in both days, the profiles are not completely flat, and a rider looking to gain an edge could steal a few seconds at the end. That being said, I don’t believe that anyone in the top ten will be given the freedom to make a break, because at this point, the final placings are still too close to call.
I will make my prediction that Sastre and Evans will be on the top two steps on the podium, with the slightest of edges given to Sastre. Menchov, by history, rides a strong enough time trial to take over a minute out of both Kohl and Schleck, and will take the third spot on the podium. In many ways, I would consider this placing a bit of a disappointment, as he has had enough weak moments to suggest that he might have really been able to contend for the victory, had he stayed more consistent. I given Schleck the slighest of edge over Kohl for fourth place, with Vande Velde staying in 6th. Had he not struggled yesterday, I would say that Vande Velde might have been on the podium, and he will make it very close, but I don’t see him taking 3+ minutes out of those two, when they are still inspired by a potential spot of the podium.
This has been an interesting Tour, and it is good to finally see a turning point in it. The great thing about a three week bike race is the unpredictability of it, and how what people expect to happen, seldom actually do, at least not without some suspense. It may be that Evans wins the race, which he has been favored to do all year. Today, though, cements in my mind that Sastre has finally shed the label of “forgotten man”, to that of a rider who has made a serious bid to win the race, when no one else could stop him. I am so looking forward to the next four days to see how things shape up in one of the closest battles we have seen for years.
Arn said
It’s a pleasure to wait for these blogs as a quality refinement on those post-race comments of the cycling press. Yours are thoughtful and perceptive. Can’t argue with a thing you say, though I will add that the human factor is unpredictable, and that even if a rider has a mediocre day–as opposed to a really bad one–on Saturday they can kiss it all goodbye. The stage profile for Saturday is bumpy, but not mountainous enough to give a climber any significant advantage, so I’d say that the outcome is really going to be determined by who is going great as opposed to who is just going very well. Actually, an ITT is a perfect balance to the several days of racing we’ve had where the strong team CSC has contributed so greatly to their riders’ success. I’m not sure I’d agree that CSC’s achievement is greater than USPostal/Discovery’s, but it surely is different, and again I’d say that difference is that they were focused on a single superstar, while CSC has a handful of stars. What impressed me today was the objective, straightfoward, unassailable logic that, all sentiment aside, Sastre was their GC man even though Frank Schleck and Cancellara had their moments of single-stage successes. None of this “shifting captain” stuff that saboutaged T-Mobil with their even greater array of potential stars in Ullrich, Kloden, Vino, and Zabel. Imagine what Riis might have done with those guys. Of course, the ego factor may have been a large part of T-Mobil’s failure, and of CSC’s success in the reverse sense that people like the Schlecks obviously don’t have the kind of ego problem that creates conflicts on the road and leads to absurdities like T-Mobil’s need ing to chase down their own rider’s breakaway.
Arn