On a day when I thought the leaders would watch each other and wait until tomorrow, serious changes took place. Looking at this stage on paper, I assumed that the leaders would watch each other, but with a descent to the finish, I assumed they would stay together or at least not be able to break apart. I guess, yet again, this is why the race is run, and why what is on paper is not always as clear as what the road does to the riders.
I felt like today was a day of “what-ifs”. As far as the stage was concerned, it was awesome to see George Hincapie riding so strongly at the front of the race, putting himself in a prime position to via for a stage win. It was gratifying to see Christian Vande Velde riding strongly with the leaders up the steepest climbs. Unfortunately, what you think is going to happen seldom plays out exactly how it is “supposed” to in sport. This really is a sport measured in small increments, in seconds and meters, and at similarly key points, American celebrations fell a bit short today.
Up front, Hincapie looked every bit the wily veteran that he is, and was smartly covering every move that went in the front group. It was unfortunate that nearing the summit of a VERY steep-looking climb, the youngest and least experienced rider in the race made a break for the summit. On most any climb and descent, an attack like that would have been covered and closed down at or shortly after the summit. Unfortunately, given the violent nature of the acceleration, George seemed to lose a bit of a gap, more so in time than in distance. He is smart enough to know that the little bit of time lost at the summit can normally be made up in 23 km of descending. It was only 20-30 seconds, finishing the climb at his own pace, within his limits. Unfortunately, despite his experience and skill, that brief decision ultimately cost him the race, as he was unable to close any gaps on the descent. It is odd, because when you look at the profile, you would assume that you wouldn’t gain much of an advantage on the descent, because the race would come together. Unfortunately, given the length of the descent, and the twisting nature, there was little to advantage to the chasers, as with everyone at their limit, and the finish literally at the bottom, the gap at the summit was more or less the same at the bottom. You could feel Hincapie’s frustration at the line; working well in the break the entire day, only to miss out on the chance to sprint for victory due to a split second decision, caused by a man who ultimately crashed on the other side of the summit. For him, 5th place may as well have been 25th place.
Christian Vande Velde also had what is clearly his worst day on this Tour, when it counted the most. The second climb was clearly just a few km too long for him, due to the pressure applied by the mighty CSC team, but he fought well, like the professional he is, to limit his losses. Due to limited television camera coverage, it was impossible to see how far back he was once he lost the gap, but apparently, he maintained a managable gap of 35 seconds at the summit. While this is still a defecit at a critical time, it would have been a manageable one going into the time trial. Unfortunately, a slip of his wheels on the descent caused a crash, and added an extra two minutes to his losses. With a monster stage tomorrow, nothing is carved in stone yet, but the way things are going now, it is likely that Vande Velde’s bid for victory is over. He is not out of the podium range yet, but asking him to take 3+ minutes out of four guys is probably too tall an order. He is still in line for a high finish, much higher than I would have ever predicted, but there will always be a feeling of “what if”.
As for the the others, what impressed me most was both the strength of CSC on the climb, and the relative damage done on the descent. I have said before that CSC may be absolutely the best team in the race. They are racing a la Discovery/USPS, with a seemingly endless arsenal of riders to hammer the pace at the front of the pack on the climbs, until their leaders shed all but the strongest off of their wheels. I am still unsure of whether or not Schleck or Sastre is really the best rider from the two; in reality Andy Schleck really put the whole of the leading group at their limits, and kept them their. It is fortunate for the others that he lost the time he did last week, or else CSC could potentially have 3 guys going for the win. As it is, his defecit from Hautacam allows him to relieve himself of those responsibilities and just work endlessly for his brother and Sastre. They are going to be absolutely devestating tomorrow, and the leaders can really only hope that the difficulty of the stage kills off some of that team support earlier in the stage, or else the final climb to Alpe d’Huez may be a truly epic battle of only the strongest survivors.
I was surprised to see how the descent really hurt some of the leaders, most especially Kirchen and Menchov. It does emphasize the fact that descending can be just as important a skill as climbing, sometimes. This was clearly not a descent for the nervous, and unfortunately, Kirchen and Menchov showed that their descending skills were just not quite as strong as some of the others. Menchov may have just lost the overall race to Evans today, although he limited his losses, and still should hold an advantage over Schleck, Sastre and Kohl in the time trial. With that in mind, this has really been a race for Menchov where he has done 95% right, only to see some smaller time losses and mistakes, prevent him from taking the lead of the race. Valverde showed that he has recovered, and is looking good for a stronger finish in Paris. I don’t expect to see him bid for the podium, but he may yet have something to say in this race. Kirchen is another survivor. I don’t know that he has any agression left, but is clearly strong enough to stay close and defend his position. He and Valverde are actually closer to Vande Velde now, than Christian is to the leaders; he is going to have to keep looking ahead and behind him.
My final observation is that it is interesting to see a race in which there is still no real star, or a definitive favorite. Evans rode perfectly, and relatively quietly now that he is out of the jersey, and still stands the best chance of winning by getting himself to the time trial in the same position he is in. Unfortunately, in looking at the top 5-8 riders, no one has really asserted himself (save maybe for Valverde, who negated his efforts with an off day in the Pyrenees). Without a patron, history has traditionally seen someone try to grab the race by the throat and make it their own. I don’t believe we have seen that yet. The front runners have done the best job of surviving up until now, and have kept each other close. It is odd to feel like the winner of the race might be a champion by the process of elimination; as most riders are shed in the mountains, the leaders stay at the front, and then the time trial will decide it. This will provide for drama up until the end, but I feel as though we are missing that heroic moment, stage, attack, exploit (choose your label) that has defined any one rider or indeed as a turning point of this race. It could be coming tomorrow, which seems geographically to be the hardest of the race, but in the absence of a real shake up tomorrow, this will go down in history as a race with more parity than we have every seen. It would have been interesting see Contador here, because with Astana (or even any other strong team in the mountains), one team would not be trying to tear the race apart. Oh well…like I said, this today seems to have been a race of “what-ifs?” and it will continue to be so until the end.
