Now this is what racing is really all about. In 22 Tours de France, I don’t think I can remember when more riders going into the final week have a realistic chance of winning the Tour, and when I really struggled to claim one as an absolute favorite. In the past two decades, we have almost always either had an Indurain or Armstrong, who you know was the absolute favorite, and if they weren’t already leading going into the last week, you knew it was just a matter of time before they ascended to their rightful throne. In those odd years when they didn’t win, you still generally felt that one or two riders where left to win (ie: a LeMond or a Delgado), or someone was placed so well that it would take a complete collapse by another rider for the outcome to be so open. I feel like you really need to go all the way back to 1987, when the race was really between Roche, Delgado, and a yellow-clad Jean Francois Bernard to have such an open race after the second to last Sunday. Even last year, Rasmussen was really strongly in the lead on Sunday, even if things got closed up when he was removed, and then the time trial made things really tight.
What we saw today was straight up, mano-a-mano racing, and only CSC was able to rely on team-strength, even if it did affect the different members of that team in the end. I will give kudos to Danny Pate for a day long breakaway which survived to the finish. Even if he was third in the three man sprint to the finish, he earned my respect for fighting for ever inch and even going for the win late, when there were times during the stage when he looked like he was really digging in deep to maintain his presence in the escape.
CSC is one strong team, and while I marvel at their strength, I can’t help but wonder if having two men up the road helps them or hurts them. On the plus side, they have two potential candidates for final victory in Frank Schleck and Carlos Sastre. We have seen today, and at Hautacam that they are both at the top of their form, and are up to the task. By having each of them continually attack Evans (and the rest of the group), eventually one of them has gotten away to his own advantage. Unfortunately, on both stage, one of them has been left behind with Evans, and really unable to make a chase, because they don’t want to drag Evans back up to them. On the flip side, it is just that they are leading, because in reality they are the only team capable (or trying) to lead the race through the mountains. I wonder if this opens up an opportunity for Sastre to attack. If he attacks and they let him go, he is in a position to take the lead, whereas if the bunch chases him down, they may potentially get worn down for a counter attack by Schleck. I doubt Bjarne Riis is anything but pleased with where things are, because at this point, he is clearly the most loaded.
With six riders all within a minute of the yellow jersey with a week to go, highlighted by two mountain stages (one mountain top) and a 53 km time trial, I will evaluate the chances of each of the leaders. They have each earned their positions amongst the leaders, and I think they have established themselves in a group whereby no one else can rightfully lay claim towards challenging for the overall victory in Paris.
1) Frank Schleck- yellow jersey- You can’t ask anyone to do more than be in the leader’s jersey, and he has done just that. His team has performed beautifully for him, and he has produced. He is clearly one of the best climbers in the race, and will defend his lead well in the Alps. Having his brother as his personal shepard can only help him, although I wonder how his relationship with Sastre will affect his chances. He will have to fight on l’Alpe d’Huez to put in a couple minutes into Evans, Menchov and even Vande Velde, in order to win on Sunday, and survive the time trial. If CSC (and Sastre) decide to commit to his chances, he could end up with the victory, but he is not there yet. He is as a strong as any other of the favorites, but it will be interesting to see how he rides with the jersey, when everyone has their eyes on him. (Chances of victory: 7.5/10)
2). Berhard Kohl- :07 behind- An interesting rider to be this high up in the standings, maybe even more so than Vande Velde. On the final stages of the hardest climbs, he may have the most spring of all of the favorites. CSC will really have to watch him, and they may have his hands full. He is on a good track to win the polka-dot jersey, which would be a nice prize. Gerolsteiner is not a weak team, although he still remains alone at the end of the mountain top. He would benefit from help on l’Alpe d’Huez, and could make a serious attack on the jersey. That being said, of the top 6, he is probably the weakest time trialist. He is gaining confidence each day, and could concievably steal the jersey on Tuesday or Wednesday, although defending in on Saturday could prove to be too tall an order. (Chances of victory: 5/10)
3. Cadel Evans- :08 seconds behind- Oddly enough, losing the jersey today might have been the best thing for him. Of the top 6, he is not the strongest climber, but he can follow most of the moves. He still remains the favorite as long as he is within a minute of the others going into the time trial. It is tought to say if his little spill took anything out of him today, but he seemed to be struggling to follow some of the later moves when he found himself being attack left and right near the end. He will not be shedding any of the pressure of being the favorite just because he gave up the jersey. The time trial on Saturday should be in his favor, and I still consider him to be the favorite to win the Tour. (Chances of victory- 8.5/10)
4. Denis Menchov- :38 seconds behind- I still consider Menchov to be the biggest threat to the jersey, but maybe the unluckiest. He lost those stupid but prescious seconds during the first week, getting stuck behind a crash, and then he hit the deck today when it was clear that he was trying to launch a decisive attack. He was hurting a bit in the last kilometer today, but he is also strong enough to take time out of Evans on Wednesday if he is agressive. He probably could use a minute gain between now and the time trial to feel good about beating Evans. He will not lose much, if any on Saturday, and if he can perhaps lead by 30 seconds going into that test, it might be a defendable lead. Having one grand tour (and being promoted to another after Roberto Heras’ ejection), he has the experience of fighting for the win in such a big race. I would rate him as a physical equal of Evans right now, but only needs to climb out of the little hole he has dug in the early part of the race (Chance of victory: 8/10)
5). Christian Vande Velde- :39 behind. Christian has enjoyed this Tour, being the big question mark, and has defended his position well. I think what he might lack the most could be a sense of confidence, because he has never been in this position before. He seems to be sure of his fitness, and races well, but in the latter stages of the toughest stages, he has shown hesitation to go with the key breaks, content to stay with the Evans group. This has kept him up amongst the leaders thus ar, and he looks great. He remains a threat, having really only given up 1 second from the yellow jersey today (albeit to a different leader), and being one of the better time trialists in the race. If he is to have a real chance of winning the Tour overall, he must take a minute out of both Evans and Menchov before the time trial. This will mean marking CSC (Schleck and Sastre) and Kohl on l’Alpe d’Huez, and going for broke on the final climb. This will of course be harder than anything he has ever done, but he has to be tasting the opportunity. If things remain as they are, he still stands a wonderful chance at being on the podium. (Chances of victory: 6/10)
6). Carlos Sastre- :49 seconds. Having Sastre this close, and yet, this far from the lead, creates an interesting situation for CSC. Schleck may be in the lead, but with six guys within a minute, it is unwise for th CSC to put all of their eggs in one basket. It is too hard for the leaders to keep monitoring everyone, and Sastre may be strong enough to break away on l’Alpe d’Huez and stay away. CSC, the strongest team in the race, will not chase him, and yet they may also prevent the others from going after him, too. He is at least Schleck’s equal in the time trial, and has the experience to fight to the end. He may actually stand a better chance of getting 2-3 minutes out of Evans and Menchov by breaking away, than Schleck will trying to drop everyone, while wearing the yellow jersey. The time trial may keep him out of the final yellow jersey, unless he has the ride of his life on Wednesday (sound like a familiar theme?)
The exciting part of this year’s race (as it was today), is the dynamic of having so many men so close together, and all from rival teams. It is not enough to simply watch one man or two; there was an accordian effect today, bringing all of the favorites together, where it will be even more difficult to mark the favorites in the Alps, because it may just be one of the later breaks which sticks when the others are recovering from an earlier attack. It is clear that the current standings favor the time trialists (Evans, Menchov, Vande Velde), while the mountains alone give the edge to Schleck, Kohl & Sastre, not to mention the CSC affect. We might see someone like Valverde get in there to make temporary allies with a favorite or two, trading a stage win for help. It is clear that he is feeling better, and with the possibility of a high placing still a possibility if anyone crumbles, I think his morale is still on solid ground.
Before making my final predictions, I will say that I believe that Oscar Friere will end up with the points jersey. Kohl is riding well in the polka-dot jersey, but it is not impossible to see Schleck or Sastre make a move on the jersey with a strong ride on Wednesday. Having the lead already, though, I give Kohl the odds of keeping the jersey.
My final predictions for next week:
6). Bernhard Kohl- The weakest time trialist of the six, he will not gain enough time on the others in the mountains to build up a sufficient cushion.
5). Carlos Sastre- Will end up being the stronger rider in the Alpes, without having the pressure of the jersey, but will only match Frank Schleck in the time trial, thus not being able to make up his overall deficit of Monday.
4) Frank Schleck- Will defend his jersey well, going into the time trial. He will use his team well through the Alps, and wear the jersey with pride. Unfortunately, he will not have more than a minute over his three closest contenders.
THE PODIUM….
3) Christian Vande Velde- Will match the climbers on Tuesday and Wednesday, and give little if anything away. He has been incredibly lucky to maintain great form throughout the race, and will build up massive confidence. He will edge Schleck in the latter stages of the time trial to knock him off the podium.
2) Denis Menchov- Will rue the day when he gave up seconds because of stupidity. This might be the closest finish in the history of the Tour de France, unless he can gain some real time on Wednesday over Cadel Evans. My money says that he will make a real attempt, but still come up agonizingly close.
1) Cadel Evans- The man with the most to lose, in terms of pressure of being the favorite delivers the good. He may suffer the most of these six in the Alpes, and will have to fend of the attacks of everyone, with perhaps the least help. That being said, for him going into the time trial anywhere close the lead (I say it will still be Schleck’s) will be good enough to pour on the power over 53 km on Saturday, in a race where Menchov will be the only favorite to stay close. it is conceivable that Saturday’s time trial will create more separation amongst the favorites than the whole of the Alps and the Pyrenees do. If he wins it, he deserves it as the craftiest, and most complete rider in the race, even if not the strongest or most explosive.
This is shaping up to be an epic finish to the race, and in the back of my mind, I cannot wait to see a showdown next year between this year’s champion, and Alberto Contador, who is still the greatest stage race rider on Earth right now.
