Today’s stage up to the finish of Hautacam, in the heart of the Pyrenees, was one which was supposed to shape the rest of the race. Coming after the climb of the Col du Tourmalet, the final climb was predicted to knock out the pretenders, and leave us with a clear picture of who would remain the true contenders for final victory. Historically speaking, the man in the yellow jersey after this stage would end up victorious in Paris. With the battle which took place today, the man wearing the jersey was the one who was billed as the hot favorite coming in, but no one could have predicted him taking it by the slimmest of margins: one second.
First of all, everyone (riders, media and fans) who said that today would prove decisive were pretty much on the money. The general classification was completely shuffled. A number of serious questions were answered. I had wondered for the last week or so if Valverde was on form, or perhaps passed his peak, and today spelled it out: he is not going to win this year’s Tour de France. It seems clear over the past several years that those who are at their best at the Dauphine Libere in June are not at their best in the Tour. It is easy to forget that athletes are human, and physiologically, it is just too hard to hold a strong peak for 5-7 weeks like that. He, unfortunately, is proving this. It is a bit sad for him, too, because his team worked very hard for him over the past week or so for him, and they will have to reassess their options. I do wonder what comes next for him. As a heavy favorite, he may swallow his pride, and go on the hunt for stage wins, and try to salvage a higher placing in Paris. If he can recover in the next couple days and ride well in the Alps, this is doable. Unfortunately, it is rare for an athlete who is passed their peak to suddenly improve for two weeks. It is possible for him to have a good day here or there, but I could also see him crumbling and withdrawing, if he suffers another day like today in the Alps.
Kim Kirchen surprised me somewhat today. He rode strongly in yellow, and even once he knew he was out of the jersey. He could have easily folded it in, but he rode within himself to limit his losses. Granted, he is now about two minutes out of yellow, but if he can refocus his efforts to getting back the points jersey, he could conceivably ride himself back into a top-5 position.
CSC is absolutely the strongest team in the race right now, and even with Frank Schleck only one second out of yellow, I don’t think it is clear who they are going to ride for, because Sastre rode with the best today, as well. Andy Schleck showed his limits today, but I don’t think we have heard the last from him, either. The job that Cancellera and Voigt did today, in terms of pushing the pace up to the final climb was brilliant, and clearly whittled down the favorites. (I hate to keep going back to this, but they really are employing the same tactics as Discovery/USPS at their best….maybe they learned something). Frank Schleck was really impressive. He has been highly touted for a few years now, and I sort of thought that maybe he was a tad bit over-rated; after today, I am convinced that he is the real deal. I am a bit curious if Sastre was at his limits today, or if he didn’t want to attack and drag Evans up to Schleck. They both need to gain serious time on Evans in the mountains, because he will take a couple minutes on them easily in the last time trial. One of the major themes in the next two weeks will revolve around how CSC commits their energy. At some point, they will really need to choose between Sastre and Schleck, if it hasn’t already been done today. My best guess is that Sastre is still going to be free to ride his own race, but I would be surprised if Schleck works for him, either at the risk of his own race. That being said, CSC’s strength as a team will definitely give them an advantage in the upcoming mountain stages. In fact, by not taking the jersey today, they will relieve themselves of some responsibilities in the transition stages.
Evans probably deserved to take the jersey today, because in all reality, he has been the most consistent up to this point. He rode bravely, given that he was essentially without a team most of the day. He was well aware of his limits, and managed to maintain a very high pace up to the finish, shouldering the burden of driving the group. He is now my favorite to win the Tour in Paris, assuming he stays healthy. He definitely holds the edge over all of the favorites in the time trial, and while he does not have the explosiveness of some of the pure climbers, he is strong and steady, and will not lose tons of time on any one who really matters. His lack of team support in the high mountains may be his achilles heel if isolated against multiple CSC’s or even Saunier Duval riders. That being said, I will concede that he is living up to his mantle of favorite.
A few wild cards for the overall:
Denis Menchov: Demonstrated that he is still one of the strongest riders in the race, and that he can also follow the absolute best. He is very much the quiet man of this Tour, and may ultimately end up kicking himself for losing that stupid time on Stage 3. Showed today that he is as strong as Evans, and can equal him in the time trial. He will need to attack, and is also lacking a strong team to sheppard him through the mountains. It will be interesting to see if he can take the initiative and drop Evans, or if he will settle for a lower placing.
Riccardo Ricco: I don’t care what he says, he is very much in the race for the overall. His team showed today (again) that they are very much up to the task of riding well in the mountains. He is living up to his promise as the most explosive climber in the race, and I am sure will hold on to the mountains jersey to Paris. He won’t time trial well enough to dislodge Evans or Menchov, but I am not convinced that either one could follow him if he launches another serious attack in the mountains. I believe that he was hindered today by team tactics, but it did allow him to sit on the other favorites and follow them up to the finish.
Perhaps the most surprising aspect of the race is the maturation of Christian Vande Velde as an overall rider. I keep thinking back to 1998 when Bobby Julich was not mentioned as a contender, but found himself in the top-3 simply by following the best through out the mountains, and staying quietly consistant through out the whole race. Christian has absolutely no pressure on him, and he is doing nothing but biding his time while mixing it up with the Tour favorites on the queen stage. The way he is riding, I would not be surprised to see him maintain a very high ranking come Paris, perhaps even on the podium.
There is still alot of racing to be done, but with the rest day tomorrow, I figure it is about time to make some new predictions.(Note: I will concede that some of these differ from my pre-race predictions, and are based upon where things are right now. I am man enough to admit that I was wrong, or that my predictions were based upon what I expected to happen, which again, is why the race is run).
Overall:
- Cadel Evans
- Denis Menchov
- Frank Schleck
- Christian Vande Velde
- Riccardo Ricco
- Carlos Sastre
- Kim Kirchen
Of course, alot of this can change, with only one bad day in the mountains, or in the final time trial. I am not going to guess about final time gaps, but if were going to guess on trends, I would say that Evans and Menchov are most likely to stay at the top, with Schleck most likely to lose a spot or two in the final time trial. Kirchen is the one most likely to suffer from last week’s efforts, and possibly fall away, although his fight for the points jersey may inspire him some. Ricco is most likely to keep going up in the standings. Vande Velde will remain the wild-card for a podium spot. He can ride a very good time trial, and could conceivably nudge Schleck off the podium. I am going to predict that Sastre will still have a chance to bid for overall glory, but will be hamstrung a bit by his team, and once again come up just short, while fighting to the end.
Mountain Jersey- Riccardo Ricco, quite simply, is the best rider in the mountains right now. He will not be given the chance to escape for maximum breakaway points, but will continue to garner serious points at the end of the mountain stages. I don’t see anyone taking this from him, although his teammates Piepoli and de la Fuente seem to be very active in the mountains, but I think we will see a successful defense.
Points Jersey- A very intereting battle. This race is as open as the yellow jersey, if not more. Friere has it right now, and he will be consistently present in the sprints, but it is questionable how many more field sprints there will be. Alot will depend upon how much the sprinters’ teams want to work to limit the breakaways. Rabobank and Silence-Lotto will probably not waste their energy for Friere and McEwan when they have their overall contenders to worry about. Milram is not that impressive, and Zabel will do most of the work on his own. Columbia may be the team most willing to work for their sprint, Cavendish, because they really don’t have the climbers to work with Kirchen, and depending upon his condition, perhaps not the incentive. I am going to go out on a small limb and say that I think that Kirchen will steal the green jersey, on the basis of top-10 finishes on the mountain stages and time trials, because I think that there may only be one or two more days for sprinters to take maximum points. This is a race that will go to the end in Paris.
White Jersey- Ricco….in the end, he is the most complete of the young riders, and with Andy Schleck so far down after today, his real challenger is done.
Team: This will be interesting. Saunier Duval has taken the lead today, based upon the fact that they had three in the top 6 today. CSC will be their top challenger, and in the end, I believe that they will end up with this. I am going to go with the assumption that Andy Schleck recovers, and that there will consistently be three CSC riders up front, while Saunier Duval may only have one or two on the stages with real divisions. I am also going to assume the CSC will really kill them in the final time trial, with possibly all of their top 3 riders (Cancellera, Voigt, Sastre/Schleck) minutes ahead of the top S.D. rider. (Note: Caisse d’Epargne is not done making noise in the race, as is the case with Team Columbia. Neither will vie for the team crown, but they will take their chances with stage wins).
Hey…we’re half way there….another great race in the making…enjoy!!!
