Tour de France 2008- Stage #9

Today’s venture into the mountains showed the viewers several things, even if the overall standings remained more or less intact. While I am sure most of the riders felt the effects of today’s stage, it was telling that most of those who are looking towards factoring the overall were content simply to save their energy.  The stage showed how you cannot ever assume anything, as even the race favorite in Cadel Evans had what amounts to a simple crash on an easier part of the stage.  It showed how each stage is interlinked to the Tour as a whole, and the energy saved or spent on one day may directly affect your performance one another day.

Admittedly, I thought that the favorites took it easier today than I thought they would. I really thought there would have been more of a selection on the Col d’Aspin, but it was clear that they were waiting for tomorrow to make the really serious moves. I think the absence of a really dominant favorite or controlling team is making everyone tentative.  No one seems to want to throw down the real gauntlet yet, stating that “I am the one to beat…come and get me, if you can!!!”  Riccardo Ricco is clearly using his agressiveness to get himself back into the overall picture.  I know he says that he is not here for the overall, but he has also shown that he is easily the most explosive climber thus far, and his Giro exploits have shown that when motivated, he can ride a much better time trial than he did last week.  I am not saying that he will win the race, but the favorites cannot afford to keep letting him go, as they did today.

While today “trimmed the fat”, so to speak, from the upper echelons of the race, tomorrow’s stage should make some deep cuts, and slice away anyone who is not going to be a factor for the second half of the race. Tomorrow will tell us who has spent too much energy in the first week (Kirchen?, Valverde?), and who is rounding into form (Cunego?, Schlecks?), and who can handle the pressure (Evans?, Menchov?).  It will tell us if Christian Vande Velde will actually be a player in this thing (a’ la’ Bobby Julich- 1998), or if he has just been strong enough to follow the favorites through the medium mountains. It will tell us how severe Evans’ injuries were today, or even if indeed Valverde is over his crash from last week.

Hautacam has a significant place in my memories of the Tour.  While it has been used only 3 times, the leader after this stage has always gone on to win.  My recollection of Lance Armstrong demolishing the field, on an UGLY day, in 2000, taking nearly 9:00 away from the breakaway leader, is one of his best days, in my estimation.  Perhaps even moreso than in his first win, this was the day where he really solidified his champion status in my book.  I am interested to know if there is that type of decisive rider for tomorrow.  With 8-12 riders still in with a real shot at the overall, I believe that it will be the one who can really be the strongest, and make the move that sticks who will have the upper hand.  CSC and Caisse d’Epargne could have the upper hand on the last climb, if they are willing to sacrifice some of their riders for their captains.  Evans will probably be isolated, or only have Popovych for protection, and Kirchen will have to really be on top of his game, if he is even able to stay with the favorites.  I have to say that expect big things from Valverde, Menchov and perhaps Sastre tomorrow. Evans will stay up there is he has recovered from his crash.  If he is going to really win the Tour de France, he needs to make a statement tomrorow.  With only 6 seconds from the lead, I really see him as being a position where he might just take the jersey by default, without really attacking Kirchen.  I believe that tomorrow is the day that he cracks a bit.  I am also going to predict that Christian Vande Velde quietly produces a ride that will keep him in podium contention, without having to push any pedals in real anger. My only other prediction is that Ricco will be up there tomorrow, ending the day in the polka dot jersey, which he will keep until Paris. The way he is climbing, he is becoming a threat to be in the top 5 come Paris.

One thing with the Tour is having to deal with the anticipation.  The riders have to do the job of recovering and actually riding the bikes.  The organizers and team directors deal with all of the logistical aspects of running the race, and planning strategies and preparation.  As a fan, though, as much as you enjoy each day individually, the hard part, when it is all done, is waiting until the next day to see what happens next.  This is indeed the challenge, and perhaps, the addiction, of the Tour de France.

Tour de France 2008- Stage #8

Today’s stage was supposed to be a easy transition from the last two days in the Massif Central into the Pyrenees.  It was predicted that the sprinters would have their way, and get a shot at a stage win before entering the really high mountains.  What the organizers could not have planned for, though, were the conditions.  With the wind and rain, it was clear just from looking at the faces of the riders that this was not the relaxing ride that they were really looking for.  Add in the fact that very few teams were really interested in giving it full gas for most of the day, and it made for a tougher day than most people would have expected, which re-emphasizes the fact that this really is a race of three weeks, and that every day counts, not just the mountain stages and time trials.

Mark Cavendish is really starting to justify his reputation, and I was gratified to hear that my green jersey pick is planning on continuing on to Paris.  There is still a long way to go, but he really has a burst of speed that is unparallelled in the peleton today. On a side note, Velonews did a very good article on him, comparing him to the best sprinters in Tour history, and how he stacks up (http://tour-de-france.velonews.com/article/79992/inside-the-tour-with-john-wilcockson—cavendish-on-top-of).  I think it may be a bit premature to list him in this category, but as Zabel and McEwen enter the ending phases of their careers, and with Hushovd not getting any younger, it is nice to see the new guy come along so successfully.

From a G. C. standpoint, I would say that the race really starts tomorrow.  Yes, a the last few days have taken their toll on the back of the field, but the race for Paris really starts tomorrow for the favorites. Tomorrow may not completely separate the absolute best, in that it ends in a long, 13 mile descent after climbing the Col’s de Peyresourde and d’Aspin, both category climbs.  The two mountains will create some gaps for the group who will contest for the final victory, but I am not convinced that it will necessarily weed everyone out.  The descent is long enough that if a rider is close enough, he can potentially get back on before the finish.  That being said, certain riders will say goodbye to the upper echelon of favorites.

I am not going to make any firm predictions for tomorrow’s stage, but I could see a finish with Kirchen and Valverde sprinting out the win, with Evans right behind.  Among the real favorites, I think that the real question mark lies with Cunego, who has shown weakness.  Ricco also has some questions to answer after his crash today, but I suspect he will be fine, too.  I don’t see anyone making any real attacks yet.  The way Kirchen is riding, he could very well defend his lead, although I think that Team Columbia may not be able to control the favorites late in the stage, when CSC and Caisse d’Epargne should have the strength in numbers. In any event, I expect that the real fireworks are going to fly on Monday’s finish to Hautacam.

The other question mark lies with Christian Vande Velde.  Still lying in 4th place, he is clearly enjoying the best form of his career.  I would be excited to see him maintain his form and follow the leaders.  I don’t know if he can do it day after day, but given the nature of tomorrow’s stage, it is not unthinkable that he could even improve upon his position, and move up to 3rd, assuming the Schumacher is dropped. He clearly remains the big wild card of the race, and while I am sure he will move down in the standings by the end of the race, it is not unthinkable to see him in the top 10 come Paris.

DRUGS….STILL…..

I have had 24-odd hours to think about the Beltran positive EPO test, and I have very mixed feelings about the whole things.  It is clear that the peleton does, too.  On the one hand, if he did use it, he is an idiot…a Rafael Palmeiro who is simply holding on to one more season, and placing his entire career into suspicion.  The thought that he could use EPO in this day and age, with the scrutiny, is stupid, and it is not fair to his team, either, assuming they are in the clear.  It was interesting to hear some of the riders, though, say that while they were disappointed in Beltran, it does show that the testing is working, and that cheaters are being caught.  Just because a war is on against the drugs, doesn’t mean there aren’t those desparate characters who might try to get past the testers.  I am still torn on the fact that his team remains in the race.  On the one hand, I understand that it is not the fault of the other riders that he was using drugs (assuming that they are all clean), but on the other hand, it demonstrates a consistant sense of disparity, as it pertains to enforcing the standards set forth by the race organization.  I actually agreed, also, with a statement that Cedric Vasseur, president of the riders union made.  He reminded the general public that Beltran had only had a positve A-sample.  To be fair, he should be afforded a sense of innocence until proven guilty, and it is unfathomable that the organization and media condemned him priot the secondary finding.  Admittedly, this is emblamatic of the current culture, but it still doesn’t sit well with me.

Anyways, as I said…the real Tour starts tomorrow…I will be up bright and early, waiting to see the field whittled down to the real riders who will make a difference overall, and see whose hopes will be dashed.

Enjoy…..