Finally, a stage which held true to form….most of the contenders got to recover from the time trial, an unassming break got away, but was kept within fair reach, and the sprinters had the final say at the end. These are usually the types of stages which don’t really keep my interest for the whole 3 odd hours I am watching, but I found it interesting to see just how the sprinters teams worked, just enough, and at the right time, to get the desired results. I am also glad to see my green jersey pick, Mark Cavendish, finally get his. I may still end up swallowing my prediction, since he conceded that he may not be finishing the Tour, in order to recover for the Olympics, which are two weeks after the Tour. I’ll deal with that later; for now it was actually just impressive to see him live up to his reputation. Being from an American team, I am actually starting to accept them as the “other” American team (along w/Garmin Chipotle…..and as far as I am concerned, Astana….)
A few odd thoughts as far as the overall is concerned, and some things coming from Phil and Paul’s musing…
a) I do have to wonder if Valverde just had a sub-par day yesterday, or if indeed he peaked in June, for the Dauphine and his national championships. We won’t really know much until the mountains come, but cycling is alot like running….you never know you have passed your peak, until one race to far…I am not going to worry about it too much, but it is interesting to see how your impressions of a rider can change so distinctly after just one day. That being said, he was my pick, so I will stick with him, even though I will say I am less-convinced as I was a week ago.
b) I am curious to see what happens tomorrow, with the hill-top (its only a 2nd category mountain, so I won’t call it true mountain-top) finish. I am certain that there will be some separations tomorrow, and an opportunity to show something to each other, but I am not convinced that the real favorites will truly come to the fore. I could see it as a day when perhaps someone like Riccardo Ricco comes to the fore to make up some lost time. It would be interesting to see someone like David Millar go after the yellow jersey, or even Kim Kirchen. I don’t know enough about Stefan Schumacher’s limitations in the mountains. Given the severity of the finish, I don’t know if he will hold it, but then again, I don’t know that any of the real contenders like Evans, really wants it right now. Someone like Kirchen may find themselves with it, but I am not convinvced that he is really riding like a race winner right now….wasting alot of energy early. It would be great to see someone like Vande Velde or even Hincapie be given their head, and go after the jersey, but I have a feeling that the race will arrive at the foot of the final climb more or less intact, and the favorites will just watch each other, rather than making any major attacks. With the Pyrenees starting on Sunday, I don’t know that any of the teams have the energy (or the interest), and having to lead the race this early, if they have any real ambitions in Paris.
c) As a final footnote, I do feel bad for Mauricio Soler….he really has had about as bad a Tour as you could have, and final ended it today. Its a shame for him; he is an entertaining rider in the mountains, even though I don’t consider him an overall contender at this point. With him leaving, I concede that my mountain jersey prediction was wrong, although not due to talent or ability…just bad luck. Given that the real mountains haven’t started yet (and I am willing to concede that I don’t believe in Thomas Voekler’s ability to keep in through the high mountains), I am going to make a substitute pick.
I think when it comes to being the best climber in the race, Cadel Evans looks like he might be the strongest when it comes to hitting the final climb, but he will never be able to get away for any of the intermediate mountain points. Given the parity of the field of contenders, short of completely blowing it for a day or two, I don’t see Valverde, Sastre, Menchov, Cunego or even Kim Kirchen being given a chance to get away. By default, I am going to go ahead with Ricardo Ricco. Not an easy pick, given that he may still be tired from the Giro, but he will be someone who will not truly factor in the podium picture, and in the final week, he may be able to go off in a break and get some points, while not completely blowing it for the final. I may be eating my words in a week or so from now, but this is a hard one this year.
Well, with the Tour tasting some climbing tomorrow, it is exciting to see the Tour to continue to develop in the opening week. Chapeau to the organizers this year for a wonderful course (just not for their selection committee…………….).
