It is always exciting to go to one of those days when you expect a difference to be made, and this one pretty much lived up to its billing as a day to shake up the standings. It also feels good to hear Phil and Paul admit that sometimes the “experts” don’t seem to get anything right, because while I am no expert, it seems like my predictions are getting thrown out the window day by day. The good thing is that this is a three week race, and there is always time to make up for mistakes made in the first week. You never know when someone is going to crack and lose serious time, just as it is hard to predict who is going to be on top form for the whole of 3 weeks.
I supposed I baught into the idea that Fabian Cancellera would win, and he didn’t. He looked good, though, but I thought that the performance of some of the top riders at the end of the day had some definite implications on the race as a whole. Evans is looking more and more capable of carrying the true favorite’s mantle. He really looks solid, and seems to be building his form well. Of course, the mountains will tell alot more, but he has to be satisfied. Menchov also looks really good, and had he not stupidly lost that time yesterday, we might be talking about him on equal terms right now with Evans. Kim Kirchen, to me, seems to be a bit of a wild card. He is clearly riding well right now, and he has been a top-ten finisher in the Tour last year. I have to wonder if he has really taken this kind of huge step forward to be a real contender, or if he is playing his cards now, in order to get some early glory, knowing that he will fade a bit when the stages get really hard. I am not saying he cannot finish well..he can….but we have seen in the past that those who look too good early on are not always the one’s people are talking about in Paris.
Which leads us to Valverde…clearly, he did not have a great day, and I am sure that he is not happy about giving up over a minute to Evans, Kirchen and Menchov. With that being said, he can now, hopefully, relax a bit and look at the mountains. There are plenty of chances to take back time, and the pressure now has to be on Evans, if it was ever was off him. 66 seconds is not the end of the world, but the mental blow Evans will give to Valverde can be telling. How he responds when the mountain’s come will tell us if he is really a contender to the throne, or if he peaked too early this season, and will not take a step forward towards being a champion.
It was gratifying to see the American presence made. I still don’t know where Garmin-Chipotle and Columbia will be in two+ weeks, but they both made strong presences today. It was good to see VandeVelde and Hincapie riding so well today. Clearly they are not real contenders for the overall victory, but they made it clear that they are both in good form, and will have the ability to pick their moments, and have some good days. The fact that Team Columbia has two jerseys (white and green) while Garmin-Chipotle has the lead in the team competition is gratifying. In the end, it may not be much different from the 1986 7-11 debut, which started out magnificently, but became somewhat ragged in the long run….but they have successfully given American’s something to pay attention to, while the real race develops for the overall.
Not going to bother guessing what happens tomorrow. It will be interesting over the next couple of days to see what happens with Schumacher. He has always been a competent time trialist, but certainly not an overall contender. With Thursday playing host to the first mountaintop finish (albeit on a 2nd category climb), it will be interesting to see if Evans or Kirchen goes after the early lead, or perhaps even seeing if David Millar can steal a few moments of glory in yellow.
It is said that the Tour is great because it is unpredictable…and today proved that fortunes can clearly change every single day, which is why they ride the race.
