It is an interesting year for the Tour de France. As a fan, this is my 22nd Tour…..its interesting how many journalists count their Tours as if they had ridden them. That being said, since 1987, I figure I have followed virtually every stage of every race that I could since then, back from the days prior to the Internet when I would need to call the Washington Post newsroom to get the results, and even then, I would only get the top 10 or 20, plus the American finishers if I was lucky. I have seen coverage expand from weekly CBS/ABC updates to ESPN, to the daily 4 hours I get now on Versus, accompanied by the minute by minute coverage I get on www.cyclingnews.com, the absolute best cycling coverage in the world. Thank god for modern technology.
It is with awe that I have seen cycling globalize from a sport which was based almost solely in Europe, dominated by the French and Belgians, with the odd Italian or Spaniard throwing in their odd exploit, to now seeing the best riders include cyclists from the United States, Columbia, Australia and former Eastern bloc countries. I have seen the sport battle multiple drug wars, and and have suffered with it. It is interesting now to see the French and Belgians fight for acclaim, while riders from other countries dominating the headlines.
It is clear that this is a sport which grows, and probably will develop in peaks and valleys. As an American, I became a fan at just the right time. In the 23 years I have known about the Tour de France (I first read about it following the 1986 edition), Americans have won 10 (or 11) of the 23 editions, in LeMond, Lance (and Landis). Throw in the exploits of men like Hampsten, Hincapie, Hamilton and Leipheimer, and of foreign riders from American teams like Contador, Popovych, Alcala and Mejia, and it has been easy to enjoy the American presence in the race. The race over the past two decades have seen records equalled and records broken. It has seen champions crowned, and champions de-throned. It has marvelled at achievements, and questions other feats. it is with this view of uncertainty that I turn my attention to this years edition.
I will preface my remarks by saying that I hope to critique each stage, and the race as it unfolds with my own thoughts. I love reading Phil, Paul and Bobke’s reviews…but this is my report, not my regurgitation of the media. Love, it leave it….or enjoy the ride.
Before I comment on this morning’s first stage, let me give my predictions. Keep in mind that these were shared on Friday, before today, and I have in no way, shape or form altered them based on this morning’s results:
Podium:
1. Alejandro Valverde (Spain)- Probably the most talented rider in the pack, and the most likely to attack successfully, while his recent time trial success in the Dauphine Libere demonstrate that he has improved against the clock. With the reduced amount of time trialling this year, I would say the course is slightly tilted in his favor.
2) Cadel Evans (Australia)- Seemingly the popular pick for victory, based upon his close 2nd place last year, and his consistency over the years. He is probably the best time trialist of the bunch, but he has to prove that he can drop his rivals in the mountains by attacking, something that he has failed to do thus far. Could easily be on the top step of the podium, with a team willing to back him, but could also finish on the 2nd step with a result even closer than his 23 second deficit of a year ago.
3) Maybe even harder to answer than the first two, as most of the pundits would list riders like Carlos Sastre (Spain), Damiano Cunego (Italy), or the Schleck brothers (Luxembourg) as the logical favorites for the podium. My heart would pick Sastre, as he always seems to be the odd man out, but I think I will go with a bit more logic and pick Denis Menchov. While he has never had what I would consider an outstanding Tour, he does have the best Grand Tour pedigree, with two Tour of Spain wins. Of course, the Vuelta is NOT the Tour, but he may be the most complete rider of the Tour, and has a competent team which has experience defending the lead. He needs to avoid a truly bad day in the mountains, but could easily prove to be the best rider in the race.
Green Jersey: When you take away Tom Boonen, you get the feeling that this is a more open competition. There are plenty of men who will vie for the crown. Thor Hushovd will make a valiant effort, and Erik Zabel is still in the race, and will make his presence known. Oscar Friere will factor in on certain stages, and Robbie McEwen has shown some recent form after a slow start to the season. There is also a thought that Alejandro Valverde himself may play a role in going for certain stages ( I say this even after knowing this morning’s result). With this in mind, however, I am going to go for a new name: Team Columbia’s Mark Cavendish. If he can show the same form that has shown him to be one of the best sprinters this year, he will definitely make an impact. His team does not have a legitmate contender for yellow (sorry, Kim Kirchen), and they can afford to put their weight behind him, if he has a chance. He will need some luck, which will include him avoiding crashes and making it over the mountains, but it is clear that he is one of the fastest finishers in the world when he is on, which is what makes him my upset pick.
Mountain Jersey- I never really consider this competition to necessarily highlight the best climber in the race, in terms of being most successful in the overall, rather it has been won by riders who excell at going for the intermediate mountain points, even if they may not be there at the end of each stage. A rider who can be let go on a long breakaway and eat up points over a day or two, but who the real leaders can afford to let go will be successful. In a race such as this year, without one dominant leader or even a team to completely control the race, the leaders will let someone go to fit this bill. I will go with last year’s surprise winner, Mauricio Soler. He won’t win the race (too weak in the time trial), and will be given his headway in this competition.
Young Rider: Ricardo Ricco showed in the Giro d’Italia that he is agressive in the mountains, and one tough rider. He has an outside chance at a really high placing, but will need to prove that he has recovered from a really tough Italian effort. I give him the slight edge over Andy Schleck, who may be saddled with possible team duties should Carlos Sastre have a chance at victory.
Team: It should be said that this is not a competition for who actually who has the best team to win the race, rather a team who will have the best placings on a daily basis. I would say that Silence-Lotto has most closely followed the US Postal/Discovery model, with their real focus made on protecting Cadel Evans. I think Rabobank is also similarly structured. CSC may make a run at the team title, with its three-headed attack in Sastre and the Schlecks. My pick for this title, though, is Caisse d’Epargne. They will place well on the hardest mountain stages with Valverde, and also with Oscar Pereiro. They have strong riders who will also feature in mountain stages, and may also be given headway in attacks. Definitely an interesting race this year for the team title.
Okay, so I’ve made my picks. This preview would not be complete, though, with mention of the Astana affair. I won’t go on ad naseum about this, because I could really write forever on it, and it won’t make a difference. I do wish to say this though, not as predictions, but as my own opinion:
If Astana were riding: Contador would have won his 2nd race, and Levi Leipheimer would have been on the podium again. They have the best stage race team in the world, and would have taken that title as well. Contador is, I believe, the absolute best climber in the world, and while he would not have gone after the polka-dot jersey, his absence does affect how the race will be run. Unfortunately, this year’s race has this feeling that the absolute best riders are not all there…it would have been like having an NBA All-Star game and not bringing Michael Jordan. There will be a winner, but it will feel hollow. I can only hope for a really close, hard fought battle, which will keep the spectators and enthusiast interested for the duration of the event. We are looking at a new winner, and perhaps the beginning of a new era, perhaps one which will see a new rivalry develop when Contador returns next year.
From an American standpoint, it is great to see TWO American teams in the race, in Team Columbia and Garmin Chipotle. While there will not be an American on the podium, or likely in the top ten, both of these teams could factor in the race. I will predict that either Christian Van de Velde and/or George Hincapie will slip into the top 15-25 riders, and hopefully Hincapie can go out and steal a stage, perhaps in a breakaway.
The Tour will live on, and despite all the infighting that has gone on this year, and the discussion over who is NOT here, the even will prosper. The event is about who DOES show up, and the annual spectacle that is the Tour will bring us our annual dose of stories as we enjoy this rite of summer once again.
