Tour de France 2008- Finale

I’m writing this as the final stage is taking place, and I am assuming that all of the results are set in stone, save for the winner on the Champs Elysees.  That being said, after yesterday’s time trial, I consider this a perfectly good time to reflect on the race this year.

This would be an appropriate time to offer my congratulations to Carlos Sastre.  I realize that he was not one of the hot favorites, but I will say that I consider him to be a worthwhile champion.  Sometimes, you win races by being agressive; other times you win by simply making no mistakes.  I believe that both of these apply to Sastre.  He was capably shepparded by his team when possible, and yet he was one of the few riders who was able to make a decisive move when it really counted (on l’Alpe d’Huez), and rode a time trial that was strong enough to defend his lead.  He has been a solid professional for many years, always being close, but never really tasting the ultimately glory.  I am very happy for him because he really seems to be a humble gentlemen, and has done nothing to tarnish the sport. Given the field this year, I will say that I consider him a worthy winner.

With this in mind, however, I will take this time to say that Sastre won a race that was devoid of superstars, and I would be surprised to see him win again next year.  He made some good decisions, and obviously held some good form, and he deserves the accolades he will receive. With that being said, I would not put him on the same level of some of the Tour greats.  This has been a competitive event, simply because of the parity of the field.  I consider the peleton to be in a transition, in that they are searching for a patron, and right now, I only really see one obvious superstar in the current crop of Tour riders, and he wasn’t allowed to ride and defend his title. This gave a chance for a number of very good riders vie for the title, and I feel as though each one of them gave it a real shot. Unfortunately, this year also showed how when there is really only one dominant team, they can really dominate the field, and unfortunately no other team were capable of breaking their stranglehold on the race, or at least really willing to do so.

For a number of riders, I wonder if they will consider this year to be a wasted opportunity.  For Cadel Evans, the pressure to win must have been enormous. He was the highest returning finisher, and with no Contador this year, he was the consensus pick to win the race.  He came in with good form, and rode a tactically sound race. On paper, he really made no mistakes, perhaps except for allowing Sastre so much time on Alpe d’Huez, a stage where it would have been unlikely that he could have dragged his chase group all alone.  His inability to win the race in the time trial yesterday showed that he really is not the great champion that this great race requires. It is conceivable that his early crash may have affected him, but I still felt as if he rode too cautiously, and waited for the race to come to him.  He was also hampered by a lack of team support. He is a strong rider, solid in all disciplines, but I believe that he lacks the championship demeanor which allows him to put the stamp on the race, in the manor of many of the past great winners.  He will still contend for another year or two, but I believe that his best opportunity has passed this year.

Denis Menchov also proved that he will never win the Tour de France, for similar reasons.  He is solid in all areas of the sport, and has the ability to stay with the best riders in the world up in the mountains, and in the time trials.  Unfortunately, he also showed an inability to attack the leaders, and gain the edge needed.  He also showed a need to pay attention in the bunch, losing precious seconds on seemingly easy stages.  His fourth place has got to seem like a disappointment of sort, in that his palmares would have suggested that he would be on the podium, at least.

I am not sure what to make of Alejandro Valverde.  He may be one of the most talented cyclists in the world, and maybe, one day he will put it all together.  He is still somewhat young, and very strong.  I would consider this the first time he has really been picked as a real favorite, and I think that caused him to make some mistakes.  He clearly wasted too much energy in the first week, chasing stages and carrying the yellow jersey.  It was a good idea for his sponsors, but unfortunately it killed his overall chances.  He seems like the type of rider who may always be prone to a bad day in the mountains, and he clearly needs to work on his time trialling. It is tough to say what his real limits are, because I believe now (as I did 3 weeks ago), that he held his best form in June, and he was really lacking the fortitude to hold it for the full Tour.  He made his mark on this race, but I think that in the modern peleton, you have to base your early season all on winning the Tour, and not trying to be ultra-competitive throughout the spring and through June.  Looking at the winners over the past 10-12 years, you will see that most of them have only tried to win the Tour, picking and choosing certain targets leading up to it, but never looking to peak for early season wins.

I don’t want to make it seem as though this Tour was without its stars; there were several riders who stepped forward, and it will be interesting to see if this was the year they started to blossom into the future champions, or if they are simply one year wonders who took advantage of a peleton without a real patron.  Kim Kirchen showed that he is very much a strong rider, and I wonder how far he could go if he really decided to focus on the overall for the whole of the three weeks, rather than fighting for early glory.  He ended up realy having a great race, with several days in both the green and the yellow jerseys, before folling back into the also-rans.  He is a strong time-trialist, and a capable climber.  I don’t know if he will ever win the race, but he seems like someone who will be a player in future editions.

I think the hype over the Schleck brothers is deserved.  They are both very talented riders, and demonstrate the class of a possible champion.  They both need to work on their time trialing (especially Frank), but their ability to attack in the mountains, and their willingness to be agressive, suggest that they have sufficient class to maybe one day win this race.  I will go out on a limb and say that I believe that Andy Schleck may have a bit more of an upside than Frank, partially because of his youth, but also he seems to be a bit more of a complete rider. It is difficult to tell for certain, because he was a bit more saddled by team responsibilities, but I just get the sense that he may ultimately have a bit more of class, which might one day having fighting for the win.

While they didn’t get much credit, I thought that Bernhard Kohl and Stefan Schummacher from Gerolsteiner also had outstanding races.  Kohl showed solid ability in the mountains, and demonstrated an ability to ride a solid time trial.  I think that he benefited from not really being a favorite, and thus was given some freedom to gain time on a couple of mountain stages, but in the end, he had to defend his position, and getting on the podium showed that he basically rode a race that was free of mistakes.  Schummacher is also an underrated rider, who is one of the best riders against the clock, and also no slouch in the mountains.  I don’t think he will ever really contend for the race win, but I think he definitely made his mark, winning both time trials, as well as being a catalyst in the Alps.

THE AMERICANS

When considering the revelations of the race, the performance of Christian Vande Velde has to be very high up near the top of the list.  I will say that he benefitted by not being saddled with any undue pressure, but he really only had one bad day, balancing it with fantastic rides in both the Pyrenees and the Alps, and he rode the best time trial of all the favorites on Saturday.  It is disappointing to realize that without a crash on stage 16, he might have been riding for the win, or at least the podium, but then you have to remember that he really did exceed all expectations.  This was a year when Americans were not supposed to be amongst the real players, and even I wrote back on Day One that without Astana (“America’s Team”), it would be harder to enjoy the race.  I concede that I was wrong!!! Vande Velde rode with the heart of a champion, and demonstrated the experience gained from a decade in the peleton.  I wonder how he will ride next year, when he may be more of a marked man, but in reality, he has demostrated that he has taken the next step towards being a great rider. I am not convinced that he was really targeted or otherwise limited; he simply rode with the best riders in the mountains, with limited team support, and showed that he has alot of class.  A fifth place finish is a phenomenal achievement.  His progress may be limited by his age, but he certainly filled a void that was there at the start of the race, giving the casual American fan a reason to be interested, and continuing a string of Tours in which Americans mattered in the end results.

My hat goes off to George Hincapie, who is completing his twelfth Tour out of thirteen starts. It is great to see a rider, particularly an American rider, serve as the “elder statesmen” of the bunch.  He showed grit, courage, strength and intelligence in supporting his team, and in picking his own moments.  Of course, it was disappointing to see him get so close to a stage win in the Alps, only to fall short, but it is great to see him keep on keeping on, even on a new team.  I believe that his level-headedness played a solid role in the outstanding team performance, including five stage wins and several days in the lead.  It is still not the same as seeing him with Discovery/USPS, but in the end, he rode his normal solid race, finishing a credible 35th, and just keeping on keeping on.

It was exciting to see two American teams start the race, and become players in the race.  I began the Tour not really excited about either one.  I considered Columbia to be re-incarnation of T-Mobile, which is predominantly a European team, and not really American.  Garmin-Chipotle has felt like the JV little brother to the Discovery (turned Astana) team, and felt like they were only being given their chance in order to maintain an American presence. I am impressed with Jonathan Vaughters as a director sportif, for his commitment to clean racing, and indeed, because he seems to be taking the lessons learned in the Armstrong era, and continuing to apply them….because they are proven to work. In the end, though, even with only 4 US riders competing, I am sold on both of them.  They became players in the overall, on individual stages, and in secondary jersey competitions.  All four Americans (also including Danny Pate and Will Frischkorn) made noise in the race, and that is something to be proud of.

DRUGS

Perhaps for the first time in several years, I don’t feel as though the spector of drugs overwhelmed the race.  Yes, there were a few positive tests, and one of them, Riccardo Ricco, was a potentially major player in the race.  I said before that I had considered him suspect, and I guess, sadly, I was right.  I feel good, though, that the tests seem to be working, and the race is gaining in credibility.  I worry about teams pulling out of the sport, and with Barloworld dropping sponsorship, and Gerolsteiner looking for a new sponsor (not drug related, per se), I am concerned that the level of trust by the commercial world is suffering. I know that the best way to prove that cheaters are being caught is to actually catch them, but it also shows that some riders are still idiotic, and unwilling to really give in to clean sport, rather, they place their trust in advancing ways of cheating.  I am happy, though, that I feel as if the race was not altered by a cheat, even if Riccardo Ricco did win two stages, and could have been a major player.  I firmly believed that when I was watching the toughest stages, the riders were clean.  They gave this appearance of being….human…of being at their limits, without one being substantially better than another, and without any sort of superhuman effort that belied logic.  Maybe this made it a bit less spectacular, maybe you can call it parity, maybe you can say that the riders just didn’t have the class to attack like the champions of the past.  For me, though, I appreciate the struggle, and the fact that I can truly believe in it.  I like feel as though what I am watching is real, and that when I think something probably can or can’t be done within the human limits, I am right. I do believe that great champions still exist, and we will see them again. We will see superhuman-like rides, and enjoy them.

SUMMARY

There is a reason why this race is actually run.  I know that I have changed my predictions several times after various junctures of this race, and that fortunes have little to do with rider’s reputations.  This race is run on the roads, not on paper.  (If you care to go back and check my picks, be my guest). I should congratulate Oscar Friere for earning the green jersey due to his strength and consistency. He beat out quality challengers in Hushovd and Zabel, and competed admirably against Mark Cavendish, who may be the better sprinter, but then, you have to be there every day, with nary an off day, and be willing to fight for the intermediate sprints, in order to win this competition.  Bernhard Kohl was nowhere to be found when mentioning the contenders for the mountain prize, but he earned it.  I am not sure that there was really a dominating mountain racer this year, with only Sastre’s attack on the Alpe d’Huez really being considered an exploit to be remembered.  That being said, Kohl seized the opportunity, and won the competition.  CSC’s domination of the team classification should have been foreseen.  I know that I thought more about Caisse d’Epargne, and Arn mentioned Silence Lotto, both teams of which showed to be weak in the mountains. It was telling to note that the teams who performed well in the first half of the race (Caisse d’Epargne, Columbia & Garmin Chipotle) finished well down on the overall team classification, behind CSC, who dominated, and other less-heralded squads like AG2R and Gerolsteiner.

The Tour is just now over, and I am already thinking about next year.  I have enjoyed watching this race.  It was exciting, and close to the end, keeping my attention, which is a good thing.  It produced a winner who I consider to be deserving, and who I respect.  It held an American presence throughout, supporting my sense of jinjoism, and maintain a streak of over twenty years. I will still always wonder “what if”, as it pertains to the Astana team.  Watching this, I know that Contador COULD have won again, and I know that Leipheimer COULD have played a significant role.  The race would have been different….stronger teams battling each other, and different riders watching each other.  Leipheimer may now have to concede that he will never win the Tour, as he advances in age, and newer, younger riders come in.  That being said, it is always the riders who make the race, and I will tuck this year’s edition into my mental annals as being a good one, and I just have to wait now for twelve months to wait to see what happens next, in the never-ending story that is this great race.

Tour de France 2008- Stage 17

Wow….what a day!!!! It’s been a long time since I have seen a Tour de France take 17 days to really take shape, only to see it turned upside down on one climb.  I will say that I do not believe that the race is over at all.  There are still several men who can win, and the top placings can all still be shuffled before Paris.  With this in mind, I found it refreshing for one man to finally break the bonds of parity which have kept the leaders together for two and a half weeks, and make a real bid to win the race overall.

Much has been said about how l’Alpe d’Huez is the mecca of cycling, and how it could be the deciding factor in this year’s race, with it serving as the finish to the queen stage.  Much has been written in the last couple of days about how today’s stage, being the hardest, also would be the last, if not best chance, for riders such as Carlos Sastre, Bernhard Kohl and Frank Schleck to take the time away from Cadel Evans and Denis Menchov, to give them the cushion they would to survive Saturday’s time trial in the yellow jersey.  Despite being able to set up a perfect game plan, and knowing exactly what it would take to win, it is always a huge difference between creating strategy and executing it.  Up until today, we have seen all of the favorites jockey around a bit, stealing a few seconds here or there from each other, but never really being able to gain an edge on one another. Today was the day that this mold may finally have been broken, and the fact that it was done so close to the finish may yet prove to be the masterful planning of a champion.

There are a few things worth examining after today.  First of all, CSC continued to be as strong a team as we have seen in the Tour de France for years.  It is interesting how agressive they have been able to ride, day after day, mountain after mountain, and still keep their stars reasonably fresh.  This might be even a bit more impressive than USPS/Discovery at times, in that they have been able to support three strong riders, rather than just one. There has not been a hint of dissention between the Schlecks and Sastre; in fact, they have each had their opportunities to take time, and the other one always supported them as true teammates, during the attacks.

After today, I still don’t know if the Tour is won, but Carlos Sastre has, in my mind, made his championship bid, and in reality, has been the only won who has both been willing and capable of taking it the distance.  Schleck had his chance earlier, and gained a slight edge, but could not deliver a knockout blow.  Menchov has been unable to get away from Evans, and Kohl only elevated himself to his current position because he was in a lower position, and a bit of an unknown.  I am actually very happy for Sastre, because he has always been a dignified rider, and a consistently strong competitor in the Tour, but this is the first time I have considered him as being capable of winning the Tour de France.  I might feel sorry for Evans if he doesn’t win this year, in that he has really made no mistakes this year; he has followed the best in every move, and will probably ride the best in the time trial.  Sastre benefitted from his team’s defensive moves this year, while Evans has virtually ridden alone, having to cover every move with a bullseye on his back.

I am also very pleased to see Vande Velde ride so well today.  He was strong, and he was agressive.  He never once looked to be in trouble, even if he failed to break free.  When everyone was at their absolute limit, he never once faltered.  It will be forever disappointing to know that he might have been on the podium, save for one bad patch yesterday, compounded by a crash that he caused. Of course, this is a race that doesn’t forgive.  Valverde might have been on the podium, were in not for one bad day in the Pyrenees, but that could be said for alot of riders in the peleton.  On the bright side, Vande Velde has still exceeded all expectations, and has kept the American flag flying prominently in a year when it seemed unlikely to do so.

Andrew (my brother) beat me to the punch, in terms of making some predictions. I would like to share his thoughts, and then respond, because I have my own analysis of what is likely to happen. Andrew wrote:

Well that result on L’Alpe d’Huez wasn’t quite what I had expected.  I wonder if the Schlecks will still share a team with Carlos Sastre next year.

Looking ahead, it looks like it is still Cadel Evans’ race to lose. 

Assuming that in the top 6 the good time trialists will take about 2 1/2 minutes (par, based on estimate derived from the results of the shorter stage 4 TT where about 1 1/2 minutes separated the TT-three from the climbing-three) out of the less-TT-inclined, it looks like the close battles are Sastre v. Menchov for 2nd place and F. Schleck v. B. Kohl for fourth.

Given a par of 2 1/2 minutes, unfortunately it looks like VDV will need an extra special day with a particularly lousy day for Schleck or Kohl to claim 5th.

Final GC could look something like this:

evans	0:00:00
sastre	0:00:56
menchov	0:01:05
schleck, f	0:02:20
kohl	0:02:29
vandevelde	0:03:07

If you raise par to 3 minutes though (not out of the question it would seem) then it gives Menchov the edge for 2nd and makes fourth place very interesting between VDV, schleck, and kohl.  Should be exciting.

I am not going to wholly disagree with his logic, but I will also say this:  I believe that Carlos Sastre absolutely holds his destiny in his own hands.  I am of the belief that the yellow jersey does give an added incentive, particularly on the last weekend of the race.  1:32 is a cushion, and I firmly believe that Sastre is of a suitable caliber to make a good run at victory.  Evans will be inspired, no doubt, and I expect to see a closer fight than the margin above would suggest.  I am not going to predict the winner, because it will go down to seconds.  What I can say, decisively, is that when all is said and done, I believe that both Evans and Sastre will have gone through the entire race, making few if no errors, and the best rider will be determined champion.  When looking at the time trials and the mountains, each rider will most likely have gained the time necessary to stake them to a victory, and the one who gained the most will get the crown. 

I will say that I believe that this is now a two man race for the victory, with a few caveats.  One, I am assuming that there will be no mechanical issues or crashes to hamper these riders (not a given). Two, I am going to assume that there will be no positive tests come up that state that either of them cheated (again, I would love to assume this, but maybe this is the climate we are in, when I naturally have to at least entertain a thought that a strong stage isn’t chemically enhanced). Three, I will assume that none of the favorites are able to steal any seconds on Thursday or Friday.  On paper, these are transistion stages, but in both days, the profiles are not completely flat, and a rider looking to gain an edge could steal a few seconds at the end.  That being said, I don’t believe that anyone in the top ten will be given the freedom to make a break, because at this point, the final placings are still too close to call.

I will make my prediction that Sastre and Evans will be on the top two steps on the podium, with the slightest of edges given to Sastre. Menchov, by history, rides a strong enough time trial to take over a minute out of both Kohl and Schleck, and will take the third spot on the podium.  In many ways, I would consider this placing a bit of a disappointment, as he has had enough weak moments to suggest that he might have really been able to contend for the victory, had he stayed more consistent.  I given Schleck the slighest of edge over Kohl for fourth place, with Vande Velde staying in 6th.  Had he not struggled yesterday, I would say that Vande Velde might have been on the podium, and he will make it very close, but I don’t see him taking 3+ minutes out of those two, when they are still inspired by a potential spot of the podium.

This has been an interesting Tour, and it is good to finally see a turning point in it.  The great thing about a three week bike race is the unpredictability of it, and how what people expect to happen, seldom actually do, at least not without some suspense.  It may be that Evans wins the race, which he has been favored to do all year.  Today, though, cements in my mind that Sastre has finally shed the label of “forgotten man”, to that of a rider who has made a serious bid to win the race, when no one else could stop him.  I am so looking forward to the next four days to see how things shape up in one of the closest battles we have seen for years.

Tour de France 2008-Stage 16

On a day when I thought the leaders would watch each other and wait until tomorrow, serious changes took place.  Looking at this stage on paper, I assumed that the leaders would watch each other, but with a descent to the finish, I assumed they would stay together or at least not be able to break apart.  I guess, yet again, this is why the race is run, and why what is on paper is not always as clear as what the road does to the riders.

I felt like today was a day of “what-ifs”.  As far as the stage was concerned, it was awesome to see George Hincapie riding so strongly at the front of the race, putting himself in a prime position to via for a stage win.  It was gratifying to see Christian Vande Velde riding strongly with the leaders up the steepest climbs.  Unfortunately, what you think is going to happen seldom plays out exactly how it is “supposed” to in sport. This really is a sport measured in small increments, in seconds and meters, and at similarly key points, American celebrations fell a bit short today.

Up front, Hincapie looked every bit the wily veteran that he is, and was smartly covering every move that went in the front group. It was unfortunate that nearing the summit of a VERY steep-looking climb, the youngest and least experienced rider in the race made a break for the summit.  On most any climb and descent, an attack like that would have been covered and closed down at or shortly after the summit.  Unfortunately, given the violent nature of the acceleration, George seemed to lose a bit of a gap, more so in time than in distance.  He is smart enough to know that the little bit of time lost at the summit can normally be made up in 23 km of descending.  It was only 20-30 seconds, finishing the climb at his own pace, within his limits.  Unfortunately, despite his experience and skill, that brief decision ultimately cost him the race, as he was unable to close any gaps on the descent.  It is odd, because when you look at the profile, you would assume that you wouldn’t gain much of an advantage on the descent, because the race would come together.  Unfortunately, given the length of the descent, and the twisting nature, there was little to advantage to the chasers, as with everyone at their limit, and the finish literally at the bottom, the gap at the summit was more or less the same at the bottom.  You could feel Hincapie’s frustration at the line; working well in the break the entire day, only to miss out on the chance to sprint for victory due to a split second decision, caused by a man who ultimately crashed on the other side of the summit. For him, 5th place may as well have been 25th place.

Christian Vande Velde also had what is clearly his worst day on this Tour, when it counted the most.  The second climb was clearly just a few km too long for him, due to the pressure applied by the mighty CSC team, but he fought well, like the professional he is, to limit his losses.  Due to limited television camera coverage, it was impossible to see how far back he was once he lost the gap, but apparently, he maintained a managable gap of 35 seconds at the summit.  While this is still a defecit at a critical time, it would have been a manageable one going into the time trial.  Unfortunately, a slip of his wheels on the descent caused a crash, and added an extra two minutes to his losses.  With a monster stage tomorrow, nothing is carved in stone yet, but the way things are going now, it is likely that Vande Velde’s bid for victory is over.  He is not out of the podium range yet, but asking him to take 3+ minutes out of four guys is probably too tall an order.  He is still in line for a high finish, much higher than I would have ever predicted, but there will always be a feeling of “what if”.

As for the the others, what impressed me most was both the strength of CSC on the climb, and the relative damage done on the descent.  I have said before that CSC may be absolutely the best team in the race.  They are racing a la Discovery/USPS, with a seemingly endless arsenal of riders to hammer the pace at the front of the pack on the climbs, until their leaders shed all but the strongest off of their wheels.  I am still unsure of whether or not Schleck or Sastre is really the best rider from the two; in reality Andy Schleck really put the whole of the leading group at their limits, and kept them their.  It is fortunate for the others that he lost the time he did last week, or else CSC could potentially have 3 guys going for the win.  As it is, his defecit from Hautacam allows him to relieve himself of those responsibilities and just work endlessly for his brother and Sastre. They are going to be absolutely devestating tomorrow, and the leaders can really only hope that the difficulty of the stage kills off some of that team support earlier in the stage, or else the final climb to Alpe d’Huez may be a truly epic battle of only the strongest survivors.

I was surprised to see how the descent really hurt some of the leaders, most especially Kirchen and Menchov.  It does emphasize the fact that descending can be just as important a skill as climbing, sometimes.  This was clearly not a descent for the nervous, and unfortunately, Kirchen and Menchov showed that their descending skills were just not quite as strong as some of the others.  Menchov may have just lost the overall race to Evans today, although he limited his losses, and still should hold an advantage over Schleck, Sastre and Kohl in the time trial.  With that in mind, this has really been a race for Menchov where he has done 95% right, only to see some smaller time losses and mistakes, prevent him from taking the lead of the race. Valverde showed that he has recovered, and is looking good for a stronger finish in Paris.  I don’t expect to see him bid for the podium, but he may yet have something to say in this race. Kirchen is another survivor.  I don’t know that he has any agression left, but is clearly strong enough to stay close and defend his position.  He and Valverde are actually closer to Vande Velde now, than Christian is to the leaders; he is going to have to keep looking ahead and behind him.

My final observation is that it is interesting to see a race in which there is still no real star, or a definitive favorite.  Evans rode perfectly, and relatively quietly now that he is out of the jersey, and still stands the best chance of winning by getting himself to the time trial in the same position he is in.  Unfortunately, in looking at the top 5-8 riders, no one has really asserted himself (save maybe for Valverde, who negated his efforts with an off day in the Pyrenees).  Without a patron, history has traditionally seen someone try to grab the race by the throat and make it their own.  I don’t believe we have seen that yet.  The front runners have done the best job of surviving up until now, and have kept each other close.  It is odd to feel like the winner of the race might be a champion by the process of elimination; as most riders are shed in the mountains, the leaders stay at the front, and then the time trial will decide it.  This will provide for drama up until the end, but I feel as though we are missing that heroic moment, stage, attack, exploit (choose your label) that has defined any one rider or indeed as a turning point of this race.  It could be coming tomorrow, which seems geographically to be the hardest of the race, but in the absence of a real shake up tomorrow, this will go down in history as a race with more parity than we have every seen.  It would have been interesting see Contador here, because with Astana (or even any other strong team in the mountains), one team would not be trying to tear the race apart.  Oh well…like I said, this today seems to have been a race of “what-ifs?” and it will continue to be so until the end.

Tour de France 2008- Stage 15

Now this is what racing is really all about.  In 22 Tours de France, I don’t think I can remember when more riders going into the final week have a realistic chance of winning the Tour, and when I really struggled to claim one as an absolute favorite.  In the past two decades, we have almost always either had an Indurain or Armstrong, who you know was the absolute favorite, and if they weren’t already leading going into the last week, you knew it was just a matter of time before they ascended to their rightful throne.  In those odd years when they didn’t win, you still generally felt that one or two riders where left to win (ie: a LeMond or a Delgado), or someone was placed so well that it would take a complete collapse by another rider for the outcome to be so open.  I feel like you really need to go all the way back to 1987, when the race was really between Roche, Delgado, and a yellow-clad Jean Francois Bernard to have such an open race after the second to last Sunday.  Even last year, Rasmussen was really strongly in the lead on Sunday, even if things got closed up when he was removed, and then the time trial made things really tight.

What we saw today was straight up, mano-a-mano racing, and only CSC was able to rely on team-strength, even if it did affect the different members of that team in the end.  I will give kudos to Danny Pate for a day long breakaway which survived to the finish.  Even if he was third in the three man sprint to the finish, he earned my respect for fighting for ever inch and even going for the win late, when there were times during the stage when he looked like he was really digging in deep to maintain his presence in the escape.

CSC is one strong team, and while I marvel at their strength, I can’t help but wonder if having two men up the road helps them or hurts them.  On the plus side, they have two potential candidates for final victory in Frank Schleck and Carlos Sastre.  We have seen today, and at Hautacam that they are both at the top of their form, and are up to the task.  By having each of them continually attack Evans (and the rest of the group), eventually one of them has gotten away to his own advantage.  Unfortunately, on both stage, one of them has been left behind with Evans, and really unable to make a chase, because they don’t want to drag Evans back up to them.  On the flip side, it is just that they are leading, because in reality they are the only team capable (or trying) to lead the race through the mountains.  I wonder if this opens up an opportunity for Sastre to attack.  If he attacks and they let him go, he is in a position to take the lead, whereas if the bunch chases him down, they may potentially get worn down for a counter attack by Schleck.  I doubt Bjarne Riis is anything but pleased with where things are, because at this point, he is clearly the most loaded.

With six riders all within a minute of the yellow jersey with a week to go, highlighted by two mountain stages (one mountain top) and a 53 km time trial, I will evaluate the chances of each of the leaders.  They have each earned their positions amongst the leaders, and I think they have established themselves in a group whereby no one else can rightfully lay claim towards challenging for the overall victory in Paris.

1) Frank Schleck- yellow jersey- You can’t ask anyone to do more than be in the leader’s jersey, and he has done just that.  His team has performed beautifully for him, and he has produced.  He is clearly one of the best climbers in the race, and will defend his lead well in the Alps.  Having his brother as his personal shepard can only help him, although I wonder how his relationship with Sastre will affect his chances.  He will have to fight on l’Alpe d’Huez to put in a couple minutes into Evans, Menchov and even Vande Velde, in order to win on Sunday, and survive the time trial. If CSC (and Sastre) decide to commit to his chances, he could end up with the victory, but he is not there yet. He is as a strong as any other of the favorites, but it will be interesting to see how he rides with the jersey, when everyone has their eyes on him. (Chances of victory: 7.5/10)

2). Berhard Kohl- :07 behind- An interesting rider to be this high up in the standings, maybe even more so than Vande Velde.  On the final stages of the hardest climbs, he may have the most spring of all of the favorites. CSC will really have to watch him, and they may have his hands full.  He is on a good track to win the polka-dot jersey, which would be a nice prize.  Gerolsteiner is not a weak team, although he still remains alone at the end of the mountain top.  He would benefit from help on l’Alpe d’Huez, and could make a serious attack on the jersey. That being said, of the top 6, he is probably the weakest time trialist.  He is gaining confidence each day, and could concievably steal the jersey on Tuesday or Wednesday, although defending in on Saturday could prove to be too tall an order. (Chances of victory: 5/10)

3.  Cadel Evans- :08 seconds behind-  Oddly enough, losing the jersey today might have been the best thing for him.  Of the top 6, he is not the strongest climber, but he can follow most of the moves.  He still remains the favorite as long as he is within a minute of the others going into the time trial.  It is tought to say if his little spill took anything out of him today, but he seemed to be struggling to follow some of the later moves when he found himself being attack left and right near the end.  He will not be shedding any of the pressure of being the favorite just because he gave up the jersey.  The time trial on Saturday should be in his favor, and I still consider him to be the favorite to win the Tour. (Chances of victory- 8.5/10)

4. Denis Menchov- :38 seconds behind- I still consider Menchov to be the biggest threat to the jersey, but maybe the unluckiest.  He lost those stupid but prescious seconds during the first week, getting stuck behind a crash, and then he hit the deck today when it was clear that he was trying to launch a decisive attack.  He was hurting a bit in the last kilometer today, but he is also strong enough to take time out of Evans on Wednesday if he is agressive.  He probably could use a minute gain between now and the time trial to feel good about beating Evans.  He will not lose much, if any on Saturday, and if he can perhaps lead by 30 seconds going into that test, it might be a defendable lead.  Having one grand tour (and being promoted to another after Roberto Heras’ ejection), he has the experience of fighting for the win in such a big race.  I would rate him as a physical equal of Evans right now, but only needs to climb out of the little hole he has dug in the early part of the race (Chance of victory: 8/10)

5).  Christian Vande Velde- :39 behind.  Christian has enjoyed this Tour, being the big question mark, and has defended his position well.  I think what he might lack the most could be a sense of confidence, because he has never been in this position before.  He seems to be sure of his fitness, and races well, but in the latter stages of the toughest stages, he has shown hesitation to go with the key breaks, content to stay with the Evans group.  This has kept him up amongst the leaders thus ar, and he looks great.  He remains a threat, having really only given up 1 second from the yellow jersey today (albeit to a different leader), and being one of the better time trialists in the race.  If he is to have a real chance of winning the Tour overall, he must take a minute out of both Evans and Menchov before the time trial.  This will mean marking CSC (Schleck and Sastre) and Kohl on l’Alpe d’Huez, and going for broke on the final climb.  This will of course be harder than anything he has ever done, but he has to be tasting the opportunity. If things remain as they are, he still stands a wonderful chance at being on the podium. (Chances of victory: 6/10)

6). Carlos Sastre- :49 seconds.  Having Sastre this close, and yet, this far from the lead, creates an interesting situation for CSC.  Schleck may be in the lead, but with six guys within a minute, it is unwise for th CSC to put all of their eggs in one basket.  It is too hard for the leaders to keep monitoring everyone, and Sastre may be strong enough to break away on l’Alpe d’Huez and stay away.  CSC, the strongest team in the race, will not chase him, and yet they may also prevent the others from going after him, too.  He is at least Schleck’s equal in the time trial, and has the experience to fight to the end. He may actually stand a better chance of getting 2-3 minutes out of Evans and Menchov by breaking away, than Schleck will trying to drop everyone, while wearing the yellow jersey.  The time trial may keep him out of the final yellow jersey, unless he has the ride of his life on Wednesday (sound like a familiar theme?)

The exciting part of this year’s race (as it was today), is the dynamic of having so many men so close together, and all from rival teams.  It is not enough to simply watch one man or two; there was an accordian effect today, bringing all of the favorites together, where it will be even more difficult to mark the favorites in the Alps, because it may just be one of the later breaks which sticks when the others are recovering from an earlier attack.  It is clear that the current standings favor the time trialists (Evans, Menchov, Vande Velde), while the mountains alone give the edge to Schleck, Kohl & Sastre, not to mention the CSC affect.  We might see someone like Valverde get in there to make temporary allies with a favorite or two, trading a stage win for help. It is clear that he is feeling better, and with the possibility of a high placing still a possibility if anyone crumbles, I think his morale is still on solid ground.

Before making my final predictions, I will say that I believe that Oscar Friere will end up with the points jersey.  Kohl is riding well in the polka-dot jersey, but it is not impossible to see Schleck or Sastre make a move on the jersey with a strong ride on Wednesday.  Having the lead already, though, I give Kohl the odds of keeping the jersey.

My final predictions for next week:

6). Bernhard Kohl- The weakest time trialist of the six, he will not gain enough time on the others in the mountains to build up a sufficient cushion.

5). Carlos Sastre- Will end up being the stronger rider in the Alpes, without having the pressure of the jersey, but will only match Frank Schleck in the time trial, thus not being able to make up his overall deficit of Monday.

4) Frank Schleck- Will defend his jersey well, going into the time trial. He will use his team well through the Alps, and wear the jersey with pride.  Unfortunately, he will not have more than a minute over his three closest contenders.

THE PODIUM….

3) Christian Vande Velde- Will match the climbers on Tuesday and Wednesday, and give little if anything away.  He has been incredibly lucky to maintain great form throughout the race, and will build up massive confidence.  He will edge Schleck in the latter stages of the time trial to knock him off the podium.

2) Denis Menchov- Will rue the day when he gave up seconds because of stupidity.  This might be the closest finish in the history of the Tour de France, unless he can gain some real time on Wednesday over Cadel Evans.  My money says that he will make a real attempt, but still come up agonizingly close.

1) Cadel Evans- The man with the most to lose, in terms of pressure of being the favorite delivers the good.  He may suffer the most of these six in the Alpes, and will have to fend of the attacks of everyone, with perhaps the least help.  That being said, for him going into the time trial anywhere close the lead (I say it will still be Schleck’s) will be good enough to pour on the power over 53 km on Saturday, in a race where Menchov will be the only favorite to stay close.  it is conceivable that Saturday’s time trial will create more separation amongst the favorites than the whole of the Alps and the Pyrenees do. If he wins it, he deserves it as the craftiest, and most complete rider in the race, even if not the strongest or most explosive.

This is shaping up to be an epic finish to the race, and in the back of my mind, I cannot wait to see a showdown next year between this year’s champion, and Alberto Contador, who is still the greatest stage race rider on Earth right now.

Tour de France 2008- Stages 11-14…and then some.

It’s been a few days since I have written, and there are a number of reasons for this.  The past four stages were supposed to be relatively quiet, and transitional stages.  They were not supposed to cause major changes in the overall standings, rather they were to be for the breakaways and the sprinters.  Purely from a spectator standpoint, this is probably the least interesting part of the Tour.  The sprints are exciting, and the script generally is the same: an early breakaway gets away, builds a lead, and then gets caught near the end.  From this standpoint, the last few days have been predictable. After the excitement of the Pyrenees and the shifts in the general classification, it is difficult to be patient to wait for more stages to shake things up.  It forces you to look at the other competition, and concentrate on those standings, such as the points jersey, which is now really taking shape.

It has been exciting to see Mark Cavendish blossom as the top sprinter in the world.  I sometimes like seeing people who are really built up actually meeting their potential.  Cavendish has gotten alot of press over the last couple years, and I can now see why.  Team Columbia has worked hard on a number of different fronts in this Tour, and they are arguably the strongest overall team in the race, even if they cannot support Kirchen in the highest of the mountains. It is nice to see a team flex their muscles, though, when it is appropriate, and see the results reach fruition.  There has been seemingly so little organization to this race, on most days, that at least on the sprint stages, it is nice to see things shape up as they are supposed to.

I’ll be honest, I have been a bit bored waiting for the mountains to return, and see opportunities for the g.c. to continue developing.  That being said, I am sick of the doping issues, and their effects on the race.  When Beltran and Duenas were busted, I was mildly annoyed, but I discounted them as small fries who were just plain stupid, but who weren’t going to affect the race one way or another.  Beltran is someone hanging on at the end of his career, and Duenas is/was a nobody.  That being said, I was/am really pissed off about the doping positive of Riccardo Ricco.

I hate the feeling that I think I had seen it coming, and have maybe even questioned him in the past.  It is one thing to read about someone in the results, or even in the play by play online during the Giro; it is completely different to see someone in action on TV.  The way he rides is very much like Marco Pantani, whom he idolized, and very much unlike a man dealing with the natural fatigue of racing the hardest race in the world.  When he attacked, he did so like everyone else was standing still. He rode as if he were almost too good to be real, and now we find out that indeed, he wasn’t.

This is a man, and I would also be willing to believe, a team (Saunier Duval-Scott), who really affected the outcome of the race, and indeed did so unfairly.  I am personally choosing to believe that if his team itself does not have a systematic doping program in place, there are other riders on his team who also cheat, and what they did, shaped the race.  I feel like this is Astana 2007, all over again, and it pisses me off.  I really like to believe that when I watch sport, I can believe in what I see, and yet it feels like an annual affair that something extraordinary takes place, only to be cancelled out later by a doping positive test.  There is talk about re-assigning his stage victories and dispersing his mountain points, but to me, all of that is pointless and ridiculous.  Reassigning a stage win, or giving points out to lower riders are hollow victories, which were neither earned, nor could they be properly enjoyed.  His actions in the mountains did affect the way the race was run, and at this point, the damage has been done.

My only comfort stems from the fact that the race is not completely irreparable.  Ricco and his team left the race at a point when there are still plenty of critical stages left, where the remainding riders can decide the outcome of the Tour on fair terms.  I hope that Ricco suffers the fullest of punishments that the law has to offer, and that he can serve as a deterrent for the future.  I don’t know if this will change the minds of other riders, but it sort of reminds me that sometimes, when things seem too good to be real, they often are.  Ricco shows this clearly.  It is sometimes important to remember that these are human beings, with physical limits, and that particularly for younger riders, domination off the bat is not always realistic.

I fear the worst for the outcome of this Tour.  Already, we have seen Barloworld announce that they will end their sponsorship due to the drug allegations, and Saunier Duval has acknowledged that they will follow suit, if the allegations are proven real.  Riders have to realize that the consequences of their actions will negatively afffect others, including their teammates, directors, and the lowly paid support staff, who depend upon this sport for their livelihood.  I fear that as we see sponsors leave the sport, they may not always be replaced with new ones, and thus there will be fewer riders and fewer jobs available. Drugs and how they affect the sport have already seriously affected the status of the governing bodies…at what point will people get the message!!!

I realize that this is a war with casualties, and I would like to the think that percentage-wise, the peleton is growing cleaner every year.  I realize that the price for cleaning out the sport of cheats is to catch those who are cheating.  I am disturbing to find that Ricco was caught using a new form of EPO, but maybe it is better that they did, showing that the testing is catching up with the new drugs.  Who knows.

In the meantime, I look forward to the racing tomorrow, in the Alps, when my focus can actually be directed towards the actual racing, and I can enjoy the sporting spectacle that is the Tour continue to unfold into its final form. I hope that my next blog can be on a positive note…perhaps cheering on Christian Vande Velde into the yellow jersey, or seeing some of the other top riders showing their true class. We’ll see….Vive le Tour…and let cycling live, as the cheats die.

Tour de France 2008-Stage#10

Today’s stage up to the finish of Hautacam, in the heart of the Pyrenees, was one which was supposed to shape the rest of the race.  Coming after the climb of the Col du Tourmalet, the final climb was predicted to knock out the pretenders, and leave us with a clear picture of who would remain the true contenders for final victory.  Historically speaking, the man in the yellow jersey after this stage would end up victorious in Paris. With the battle which took place today, the man wearing the jersey was the one who was billed as the hot favorite coming in, but no one could have predicted him taking it by the slimmest of margins: one second.

First of all, everyone (riders, media and fans) who said that today would prove decisive were pretty much on the money.  The general classification was completely shuffled.  A number of serious questions were answered.  I had wondered for the last week or so if Valverde was on form, or perhaps passed his peak, and today spelled it out: he is not going to win this year’s Tour de France.  It seems clear over the past several years that those who are at their best at the Dauphine Libere in June are not at their best in the Tour.  It is easy to forget that athletes are human, and physiologically, it is just too hard to hold a strong peak for 5-7 weeks like that.  He, unfortunately, is proving this.  It is a bit sad for him, too, because his team worked very hard for him over the past week or so for him, and they will have to reassess their options. I do wonder what comes next for him.  As a heavy favorite, he may swallow his pride, and go on the hunt for stage wins, and try to salvage a higher placing in Paris.  If he can recover in the next couple days and ride well in the Alps, this is doable.  Unfortunately, it is rare for an athlete who is passed their peak to suddenly improve for two weeks.  It is possible for him to have a good day here or there, but I could also see him crumbling and withdrawing, if he suffers another day like today in the Alps.

Kim Kirchen surprised me somewhat today.  He rode strongly in yellow, and even once he knew he was out of the jersey.  He could have easily folded it in, but he rode within himself to limit his losses. Granted, he is now about two minutes out of yellow, but if he can refocus his efforts to getting back the points jersey, he could conceivably ride himself back into a top-5 position.

CSC is absolutely the strongest team in the race right now, and even with Frank Schleck only one second out of yellow, I don’t think it is clear who they are going to ride for, because Sastre rode with the best today, as well. Andy Schleck showed his limits today, but I don’t think we have heard the last from him, either.  The job that Cancellera and Voigt did today, in terms of pushing the pace up to the final climb was brilliant, and clearly whittled down the favorites. (I hate to keep going back to this, but they really are employing the same tactics as Discovery/USPS at their best….maybe they learned something).  Frank Schleck was really impressive.  He has been highly touted for a few years now, and I sort of thought that maybe he was a tad bit over-rated; after today, I am convinced that he is the real deal.  I am a bit curious if Sastre was at his limits today, or if he didn’t want to attack and drag Evans up to Schleck.  They both need to gain serious time on Evans in the mountains, because he will take a couple minutes on them easily in the last time trial.  One of the major themes in the next two weeks will revolve around how CSC commits their energy.  At some point, they will really need to choose between Sastre and Schleck, if it hasn’t already been done today.  My best guess is that Sastre is still going to be free to ride his own race, but I would be surprised if Schleck works for him, either at the risk of his own race.  That being said, CSC’s strength as a team will definitely give them an advantage in the upcoming mountain stages. In fact, by not taking the jersey today, they will relieve themselves of some responsibilities in the transition stages.

Evans probably deserved to take the jersey today, because in all reality, he has been the most consistent up to this point.  He rode bravely, given that he was essentially without a team most of the day.  He was well aware of his limits, and managed to maintain a very high pace up to the finish, shouldering the burden of driving the group.  He is now my favorite to win the Tour in Paris, assuming he stays healthy.  He definitely holds the edge over all of the favorites in the time trial, and while he does not have the explosiveness of some of the pure climbers, he is strong and steady, and will not lose tons of time on any one who really matters.  His lack of team support in the high mountains may be his achilles heel if isolated against multiple CSC’s or even Saunier Duval riders.  That being said, I will concede that he is living up to his mantle of favorite.

A few wild cards for the overall:

Denis Menchov:  Demonstrated that he is still one of the strongest riders in the race, and that he can also follow the absolute best.  He is very much the quiet man of this Tour, and may ultimately end up kicking himself for losing that stupid time on Stage 3. Showed today that he is as strong as Evans, and can equal him in the time trial.  He will need to attack, and is also lacking a strong team to sheppard him through the mountains.  It will be interesting to see if he can take the initiative and drop Evans, or if he will settle for a lower placing.

Riccardo Ricco:  I don’t care what he says, he is very much in the race for the overall.  His team showed today (again) that they are very much up to the task of riding well in the mountains.  He is living up to his promise as the most explosive climber in the race, and I am sure will hold on to the mountains jersey to Paris.  He won’t time trial well enough to dislodge Evans or Menchov, but I am not convinced that either one could follow him if he launches another serious attack in the mountains.  I believe that he was hindered today by team tactics, but it did allow him to sit on the other favorites and follow them up to the finish.

Perhaps the most surprising aspect of the race is the maturation of Christian Vande Velde as an overall rider.  I keep thinking back to 1998 when Bobby Julich was not mentioned as a contender, but found himself in the top-3 simply by following the best through out the mountains, and staying quietly consistant through out the whole race.  Christian has absolutely no pressure on him, and he is doing nothing but biding his time while mixing it up with the Tour favorites on the queen stage.  The way he is riding, I would not be surprised to see him maintain a very high ranking come Paris, perhaps even on the podium.

There is still alot of racing to be done, but with the rest day tomorrow, I figure it is about time to make some new predictions.(Note:  I will concede that some of these differ from my pre-race predictions, and are based upon where things are right now.  I am man enough to admit that I was wrong, or that my predictions were based upon what I expected to happen, which again, is why the race is run).

Overall:

1. Cadel Evans
2. Denis Menchov
3. Frank Schleck
4. Christian Vande Velde
5. Riccardo Ricco
6. Carlos Sastre
7. Kim Kirchen

Of course, alot of this can change, with only one bad day in the mountains, or in the final time trial. I am not going to guess about final time gaps, but if were going to guess on trends, I would say that Evans and Menchov are most likely to stay at the top, with Schleck most likely to lose a spot or two in the final time trial.  Kirchen is the one most likely to suffer from last week’s efforts, and possibly fall away, although his fight for the points jersey may inspire him some. Ricco is most likely to keep going up in the standings.  Vande Velde will remain the wild-card for a podium spot.  He can ride a very good time trial, and could conceivably nudge Schleck off the podium.  I am going to predict that Sastre will still have a chance to bid for overall glory, but will be hamstrung a bit by his team, and once again come up just short, while fighting to the end.

Mountain Jersey- Riccardo Ricco, quite simply, is the best rider in the mountains right now.  He will not be given the chance to escape for maximum breakaway points, but will continue to garner serious points at the end of the mountain stages. I don’t see anyone taking this from him, although his teammates Piepoli and de la Fuente seem to be very active in the mountains, but I think we will see a successful defense.

Points Jersey- A very intereting battle.  This race is as open as the yellow jersey, if not more.  Friere has it right now, and he will be consistently present in the sprints, but it is questionable how many more field sprints there will be.  Alot will depend upon how much the sprinters’ teams want to work to limit the breakaways.  Rabobank and Silence-Lotto will probably not waste their energy for Friere and McEwan when they have their overall contenders to worry about.  Milram is not that impressive, and Zabel will do most of the work on his own.  Columbia may be the team most willing to work for their sprint, Cavendish, because they really don’t have the climbers to work with Kirchen, and depending upon his condition, perhaps not the incentive.  I am going to go out on a small limb and say that I think that Kirchen will steal the green jersey, on the basis of top-10 finishes on the mountain stages and time trials, because I think that there may only be one or two more days for sprinters to take maximum points.  This is a race that will go to the end in Paris.

White Jersey- Ricco….in the end, he is the most complete of the young riders, and with Andy Schleck so far down after today, his real challenger is done.

Team:  This will be interesting.  Saunier Duval has taken the lead today, based upon the fact that they had three in the top 6 today.  CSC will be their top challenger, and in the end, I believe that they will end up with this.  I am going to go with the assumption that Andy Schleck recovers, and that there will consistently be three CSC riders up front, while Saunier Duval may only have one or two on the stages with real divisions.  I am also going to assume the CSC will really kill them in the final time trial, with possibly all of their top 3 riders (Cancellera, Voigt, Sastre/Schleck) minutes ahead of the top S.D. rider. (Note: Caisse d’Epargne is not done making noise in the race, as is the case with Team Columbia.  Neither will vie for the team crown, but they will take their chances with stage wins).

Hey…we’re half way there….another great race in the making…enjoy!!!

Tour de France 2008- Stage #9

Today’s venture into the mountains showed the viewers several things, even if the overall standings remained more or less intact. While I am sure most of the riders felt the effects of today’s stage, it was telling that most of those who are looking towards factoring the overall were content simply to save their energy.  The stage showed how you cannot ever assume anything, as even the race favorite in Cadel Evans had what amounts to a simple crash on an easier part of the stage.  It showed how each stage is interlinked to the Tour as a whole, and the energy saved or spent on one day may directly affect your performance one another day.

Admittedly, I thought that the favorites took it easier today than I thought they would. I really thought there would have been more of a selection on the Col d’Aspin, but it was clear that they were waiting for tomorrow to make the really serious moves. I think the absence of a really dominant favorite or controlling team is making everyone tentative.  No one seems to want to throw down the real gauntlet yet, stating that “I am the one to beat…come and get me, if you can!!!”  Riccardo Ricco is clearly using his agressiveness to get himself back into the overall picture.  I know he says that he is not here for the overall, but he has also shown that he is easily the most explosive climber thus far, and his Giro exploits have shown that when motivated, he can ride a much better time trial than he did last week.  I am not saying that he will win the race, but the favorites cannot afford to keep letting him go, as they did today.

While today “trimmed the fat”, so to speak, from the upper echelons of the race, tomorrow’s stage should make some deep cuts, and slice away anyone who is not going to be a factor for the second half of the race. Tomorrow will tell us who has spent too much energy in the first week (Kirchen?, Valverde?), and who is rounding into form (Cunego?, Schlecks?), and who can handle the pressure (Evans?, Menchov?).  It will tell us if Christian Vande Velde will actually be a player in this thing (a’ la’ Bobby Julich- 1998), or if he has just been strong enough to follow the favorites through the medium mountains. It will tell us how severe Evans’ injuries were today, or even if indeed Valverde is over his crash from last week.

Hautacam has a significant place in my memories of the Tour.  While it has been used only 3 times, the leader after this stage has always gone on to win.  My recollection of Lance Armstrong demolishing the field, on an UGLY day, in 2000, taking nearly 9:00 away from the breakaway leader, is one of his best days, in my estimation.  Perhaps even moreso than in his first win, this was the day where he really solidified his champion status in my book.  I am interested to know if there is that type of decisive rider for tomorrow.  With 8-12 riders still in with a real shot at the overall, I believe that it will be the one who can really be the strongest, and make the move that sticks who will have the upper hand.  CSC and Caisse d’Epargne could have the upper hand on the last climb, if they are willing to sacrifice some of their riders for their captains.  Evans will probably be isolated, or only have Popovych for protection, and Kirchen will have to really be on top of his game, if he is even able to stay with the favorites.  I have to say that expect big things from Valverde, Menchov and perhaps Sastre tomorrow. Evans will stay up there is he has recovered from his crash.  If he is going to really win the Tour de France, he needs to make a statement tomrorow.  With only 6 seconds from the lead, I really see him as being a position where he might just take the jersey by default, without really attacking Kirchen.  I believe that tomorrow is the day that he cracks a bit.  I am also going to predict that Christian Vande Velde quietly produces a ride that will keep him in podium contention, without having to push any pedals in real anger. My only other prediction is that Ricco will be up there tomorrow, ending the day in the polka dot jersey, which he will keep until Paris. The way he is climbing, he is becoming a threat to be in the top 5 come Paris.

One thing with the Tour is having to deal with the anticipation.  The riders have to do the job of recovering and actually riding the bikes.  The organizers and team directors deal with all of the logistical aspects of running the race, and planning strategies and preparation.  As a fan, though, as much as you enjoy each day individually, the hard part, when it is all done, is waiting until the next day to see what happens next.  This is indeed the challenge, and perhaps, the addiction, of the Tour de France.

Tour de France 2008- Stage #8

Today’s stage was supposed to be a easy transition from the last two days in the Massif Central into the Pyrenees.  It was predicted that the sprinters would have their way, and get a shot at a stage win before entering the really high mountains.  What the organizers could not have planned for, though, were the conditions.  With the wind and rain, it was clear just from looking at the faces of the riders that this was not the relaxing ride that they were really looking for.  Add in the fact that very few teams were really interested in giving it full gas for most of the day, and it made for a tougher day than most people would have expected, which re-emphasizes the fact that this really is a race of three weeks, and that every day counts, not just the mountain stages and time trials.

Mark Cavendish is really starting to justify his reputation, and I was gratified to hear that my green jersey pick is planning on continuing on to Paris.  There is still a long way to go, but he really has a burst of speed that is unparallelled in the peleton today. On a side note, Velonews did a very good article on him, comparing him to the best sprinters in Tour history, and how he stacks up (http://tour-de-france.velonews.com/article/79992/inside-the-tour-with-john-wilcockson—cavendish-on-top-of).  I think it may be a bit premature to list him in this category, but as Zabel and McEwen enter the ending phases of their careers, and with Hushovd not getting any younger, it is nice to see the new guy come along so successfully.

From a G. C. standpoint, I would say that the race really starts tomorrow.  Yes, a the last few days have taken their toll on the back of the field, but the race for Paris really starts tomorrow for the favorites. Tomorrow may not completely separate the absolute best, in that it ends in a long, 13 mile descent after climbing the Col’s de Peyresourde and d’Aspin, both category climbs.  The two mountains will create some gaps for the group who will contest for the final victory, but I am not convinced that it will necessarily weed everyone out.  The descent is long enough that if a rider is close enough, he can potentially get back on before the finish.  That being said, certain riders will say goodbye to the upper echelon of favorites.

I am not going to make any firm predictions for tomorrow’s stage, but I could see a finish with Kirchen and Valverde sprinting out the win, with Evans right behind.  Among the real favorites, I think that the real question mark lies with Cunego, who has shown weakness.  Ricco also has some questions to answer after his crash today, but I suspect he will be fine, too.  I don’t see anyone making any real attacks yet.  The way Kirchen is riding, he could very well defend his lead, although I think that Team Columbia may not be able to control the favorites late in the stage, when CSC and Caisse d’Epargne should have the strength in numbers. In any event, I expect that the real fireworks are going to fly on Monday’s finish to Hautacam.

The other question mark lies with Christian Vande Velde.  Still lying in 4th place, he is clearly enjoying the best form of his career.  I would be excited to see him maintain his form and follow the leaders.  I don’t know if he can do it day after day, but given the nature of tomorrow’s stage, it is not unthinkable that he could even improve upon his position, and move up to 3rd, assuming the Schumacher is dropped. He clearly remains the big wild card of the race, and while I am sure he will move down in the standings by the end of the race, it is not unthinkable to see him in the top 10 come Paris.

DRUGS….STILL…..

I have had 24-odd hours to think about the Beltran positive EPO test, and I have very mixed feelings about the whole things.  It is clear that the peleton does, too.  On the one hand, if he did use it, he is an idiot…a Rafael Palmeiro who is simply holding on to one more season, and placing his entire career into suspicion.  The thought that he could use EPO in this day and age, with the scrutiny, is stupid, and it is not fair to his team, either, assuming they are in the clear.  It was interesting to hear some of the riders, though, say that while they were disappointed in Beltran, it does show that the testing is working, and that cheaters are being caught.  Just because a war is on against the drugs, doesn’t mean there aren’t those desparate characters who might try to get past the testers.  I am still torn on the fact that his team remains in the race.  On the one hand, I understand that it is not the fault of the other riders that he was using drugs (assuming that they are all clean), but on the other hand, it demonstrates a consistant sense of disparity, as it pertains to enforcing the standards set forth by the race organization.  I actually agreed, also, with a statement that Cedric Vasseur, president of the riders union made.  He reminded the general public that Beltran had only had a positve A-sample.  To be fair, he should be afforded a sense of innocence until proven guilty, and it is unfathomable that the organization and media condemned him priot the secondary finding.  Admittedly, this is emblamatic of the current culture, but it still doesn’t sit well with me.

Anyways, as I said…the real Tour starts tomorrow…I will be up bright and early, waiting to see the field whittled down to the real riders who will make a difference overall, and see whose hopes will be dashed.

Enjoy…..

Tour de France 2008- Stages 6 & 7…and drugs!!!

It’s amazing how much can happen in a couple of days on the Tour.  First of all, I’m sorry I didn’t get something written for Thursday’s stage…it wasn’t because there was nothing worth saying; I think on a stage like that, you find yourself having to soak in the results, and actually think about the outcome. Now, two days later, I find myself with ALOT to talk about.

First of all, let’s talk about the race. I absolutely love it when the race hits the mountains, and when the race starts to really take a form.  Getting the chance to get away from the riders simply talking about what they are going to do, and actually seeing the pretenders being separated from the true contenders is one of the great joys of the race.  Admittedly, I met the last two stages with a sense that the true differences would not really be made yet.  There would be some riders who would end their quest for the yellow jersey, but there would be plenty of riders who might be riding some decent first week form, but who will ultimately struggle in the really high mountains, or when the race progresses into the third week.

Given the relative simplicity of the past two stages in the Massif Central, the race really lived up to form.  I took note of several things.  First of all, Evans and Valverde are as good as advertised right now, and will watch each other like hawks.  Unfortunately, for the long term, I get the feeling that Evans is riding smarter, and will follow Valverde whenever he attacks. Knowing that Evans will be superior in the final time trial, I figure Valverde will need a couple of minutes in hand going into that stage, and the way they are both riding, I am not sure that a real gap will ever be gotten on their own.  Valverde is clearly the more agressive, and right now, has a stronger team, but there is something about Evans that is very soothing about the way he rides.  I think that he is exactly where he wants to be at this stage: close enough to the lead to taste it, and with a bit of time on his rivals, but not having the responsibility of leading the race.

As for the other riders, it is clear that there really is alot of parity in the field.  Kim Kirchen has been exciting this week, and has looked both agressive and very attentive.  As each day passes, he seems to look more and more like a contender, but in the long run, I am very cautious about getting on board with a contender who is this active this early.  It is a long race, and it only takes one day for form to desert a rider.  Nevertheless, with each day passing, and each challenge met, he has to be gaining more confidence. That being said, I am interested to see what happens in the high mountains next week.  I will say that he got the jersey from Schumacher for being attentive, and this is the same reason he defended it on Friday. Menchov and the trio from CSC have been attentive, and worked when it suits them, and I still think they will be factors in the race.  Cunego needs to pay better attention.  He will remain amongst the leaders, I think, but probably behind the best riders.  He seems to be continuously left out of the important moves, as much for his inattention as anything else.  Maybe this shows a need for growth as a rider, or perhaps just a lack of form which may still come.  We will see.

It has been gratifying to see the presence of the American teams this week. I don’t take them for granted, because they may be one huge mountain stage from being irrelavent in terms of the race as a whole.  Christian Vande Velde is riding incredibly well, and is showing a maturity that has never been evident in his career.  He has had some decent rides in the past, but staying with the best every day is sensational.  It was awesome to see him make a bid for the yellow jersey on Thursday.  Even if he didn’t get it, and probably won’t get it, it is great to see an American presence in the overall standings.  Big George has been steady as ever.  It is ironic that he is having to defend the yellow jersey yet again in his career, after spending so many years doing so for Lance.  Just when I thought he might have the freedom to go for a stage win or ride for himself, he is being pressed back into his familiar role, and excelling at it. Team Columbia have been so very impressive.  It is clear to me that there are really three major teams in the race, as it pertains to controlling it for the overall: Columbia, Caisse d’Epargne and CSC.  Columbia have defended the jersey as well as USPS ever did, even if their resources over the next two weeks may not be as deep. Caisse d’Epargne and CSC each over multiple contenders to the top 10, and strong support riders.  I am impressed with both of their power and agressiveness.  I firmly believe for Valverde, or Sastre or one of the Schlecks to be successful, they will need to use their teams to their fullest.  Silence-Lotto may be a capable team, fully dedicated to Evans’ bid for victory, but I am not convinced that in the highest mountains, anyone save perhaps for Popovych will be up there consistantly when/if Evans takes the lead. The benefit to having multiple strong teams is that there are more men to do the work; the downside is the possible infighting as to who may be responsible to control the pack.

DRUGS

It bothers me to no end to have to mention drugs in this Tour, and I am sad that it is Manuel Beltran who has gotten caught.  I have always like Triki Beltran, as a lieutenant for Armstrong, and as a rider. I am furious though that this is still going on, albeit no overly surprised.  Of course, he is off the Tour.  Selfishly, though, I am a bit miffed that Liquigas is not being asked to leave the race.  It’s not that I necessarily suspect that everyone is using, nor do I think it is fair for the other riders to pay for Beltran’s transgressions, but in an event which has billed itself as being “no-nonsense” and having zero tolerance for riders or teams, I find it odd that the team is not being expelled.  I feel as though the precedent was set last year, and with the Astana exclusion, the message was clear, albeit misguided perhaps.  I guess we will have to see what happens next with this, but I am still bothered by this as if it were just the first time it has happened.

On an unrelated note, it is gratifying to see that on the same day as the Tour is dealing with drugs, Levi Leipheimer (he of the scorned Astana outfit) took the overall lead in Oregon’s Cascade Classic.  He is doing this on a challenging course, against many of the top domestic riders.  He will defend his lead over the next two days with a supporting team that consists solely of Chris Horner and ….himself (no other teammates in Oregon).  Also today, Astana enjoyed a stage win in the Tour of Austria, where they have two riders in the top 10, in Vladimir Gusev and Janez Brajkovic.  I guess if they can’t win the Tour, they will just win the othe races.

More to come……

Tour de France 2008- Stage 5

Finally, a stage which held true to form….most of the contenders got to recover from the time trial, an unassming break got away, but was kept within fair reach, and the sprinters had the final say at the end.  These are usually the types of stages which don’t really keep my interest for the whole 3 odd hours I am watching, but I found it interesting to see just how the sprinters teams worked, just enough, and at the right time, to get the desired results.  I am also glad to see my green jersey pick, Mark Cavendish, finally get his.  I may still end up swallowing my prediction, since he conceded that he may not be finishing the Tour, in order to recover for the Olympics, which are two weeks after the Tour. I’ll deal with that later; for now it was actually just impressive to see him live up to his reputation. Being from an American team, I am actually starting to accept them as the “other” American team (along w/Garmin Chipotle…..and as far as I am concerned, Astana….)

A few odd thoughts as far as the overall is concerned, and some things coming from Phil and Paul’s musing…

a) I do have to wonder if Valverde just had a sub-par day yesterday, or if indeed he peaked in June, for the Dauphine and his national championships.  We won’t really know much until the mountains come, but cycling is alot like running….you never know you have passed your peak, until one race to far…I am not going to worry about it too much, but it is interesting to see how your impressions of a rider can change so distinctly after just one day.  That being said, he was my pick, so I will stick with him, even though I will say I am less-convinced as I was a week ago.

b) I am curious to see what happens tomorrow, with the hill-top (its only a 2nd category mountain, so I won’t call it true mountain-top) finish.  I am certain that there will be some separations tomorrow, and an opportunity to show something to each other, but I am not convinced that the real favorites will truly come to the fore.  I could see it as a day when perhaps someone like Riccardo Ricco comes to the fore to make up some lost time. It would be interesting to see someone like David Millar go after the yellow jersey, or even Kim Kirchen.  I don’t know enough about Stefan Schumacher’s limitations in the mountains.  Given the severity of the finish, I don’t know if he will hold it, but then again, I don’t know that any of the real contenders like Evans, really wants it right now.  Someone like Kirchen may find themselves with it, but I am not convinvced that he is really riding like a race winner right now….wasting alot of energy early. It would be great to see someone like Vande Velde or even Hincapie be given their head, and go after the jersey, but I have a feeling that the race will arrive at the foot of the final climb more or less intact, and the favorites will just watch each other, rather than making any major attacks.  With the Pyrenees starting on Sunday, I don’t know that any of the teams have the energy (or the interest), and having to lead the race this early, if they have any real ambitions in Paris.

c) As a final footnote, I do feel bad for Mauricio Soler….he really has had about as bad a Tour as you could have, and final ended it today.  Its a shame for him; he is an entertaining rider in the mountains, even though I don’t consider him an overall contender at this point.  With him leaving, I concede that my mountain jersey prediction was wrong, although not due to talent or ability…just bad luck.  Given that the real mountains haven’t started yet (and I am willing to concede that I don’t believe in Thomas Voekler’s ability to keep in through the high mountains), I am going to make a substitute pick.

I think when it comes to being the best climber in the race, Cadel Evans looks like he might be the strongest when it comes to hitting the final climb, but he will never be able to get away for any of the intermediate mountain points.  Given the parity of the field of contenders, short of completely blowing it for a day or two, I don’t see Valverde, Sastre, Menchov, Cunego or even Kim Kirchen being given a chance to get away. By default, I am going to go ahead with Ricardo Ricco. Not an easy pick, given that he may still be tired from the Giro, but he will be someone who will not truly factor in the podium picture, and in the final week, he may be able to go off in a break and get some points, while not completely blowing it for the final. I may be eating my words in a week or so from now, but this is a hard one this year.

Well, with the Tour tasting some climbing tomorrow, it is exciting to see the Tour to continue to develop in the opening week. Chapeau to the organizers this year for a wonderful course (just not for their selection committee…………….).