Tour de France-Stage 1

Well, the initial excitement that comes from waiting and predicting have now come and gone, and the race has begun! The 2009 Tour began this morning in Monaco, and with a 15.5 km time trial, the stage was longer than most normal prolouges, and also made a few statements regarding what may happen over the next three weeks.

First of all, I thought that the course looked phenomenal, with a little bit of everything to test the best riders.  With a long climb in the first half, a rider had to start strong, but with the 2nd half including a long, very technical descent, we say that the riders’ bike handling skills were tested before powering to the finish.  After winning the Tour de Suisse last month, Fabian Cancellara clearly came into this race in form.  I’m not sure what surprised me more, how strongly he made it up the hill in the first half (5 sec behind Contador), or just how destructive he was on the downhill.  The gaps he created over the rest of the field (starting with the 18 seconds he put into 2nd place Contador) are indicative of just how strong he is at this event, and was probably even larger than I would have expected. As I predicted, Cancellara won this event, and realistically could hold the jersey into the team-time trial on Tuesday, if not longer.

A few other observations….first and foremost, Astana  brought their A game today, and I found it interesting that they sent Armstrong and Leipheimer early in the day, while Kloeden and Contador near the end.  I think it showed their strength, though, that in the end, all four of the top Astana riders ended up with top-10 results, and with the exception of Contador, who rode just after Cancellara, each ended up setting the top time.  Even though Contador now has time over Kloeden (4 seconds), Leipheimer (11 seconds) and Armstrong (21 seconds), I don’t read too much into it.  I think it shows that they are all in strong form, and I believe that Contador is still the best rider in the race, deserving of support when the race hits the mountain. I would not be surprised to see him in yellow on Tuesday, although I don’t see him wanting to keep it.  Kloeden might have been the big surprise of the four of them, especially since he is often the one who is overlooked in the Contador/Armstrong/Leipheimer debate, but it is clear that he has the form and the desire to play a real role in this race in the long run.

I don’t put a whole lot of stock in the results of the first day, even though the gaps were fairly significant for some of the key riders.  I believe that Cadel Evans looked phenomenally good, slipping in right behind Kloeden, and gaining some valuable time over some of his strongest rivals.  40+ seconds on guys like Andy Schleck and Carlos Sastre may be a valuable edge, although he also stands to lose some time to both of them in the team time trial.  Of the top 10 contenders I discussed in my preview, I thought most were solid, although Menchov was a bit farther back than I expected.  He may have left his best form in Italy last month, or he may have just been conservative on a difficult course.  Frank Schleck was also a bit on the disappointing side, dropping over a minute to Contador. On the flip side, Vande Velde and Andy Schleck came up with solid, if not promising rides, both in the top 20, and both beating out some of their other rivals, even if by just a few seconds.  I should also ackowledge that Roman Kreuziger turned in a great ride, confirming his form from last month in Switzerland, and perhaps confirming that he will be a player in this race. Kim Kirchen, who I picked in the top 10, did not ride well at all, finishing 109th, at 1:57 back.

The next couple of stages should belong to the sprinters, with Mark Cavendish being the obvious favorite.  Interestingly enough, even though they have the leader on their team, I do not see CSC being overly active in terms of controlling the pack to keep the breakaways from getting away.  With the team time trial two days away, and with overall contendor Andy Schleck on the team, I don’t know that they will want to waste too much energy.  With no time bonuses being  given on the line this year, I see Garmin-Chipotle and Columbia trying to control their field for their sprinters (Farrar and Cavendish, respectively), but also, each has riders who finished high up in today’s stage (Wiggins- 3rd) and (Martin-7th).  Both have a chance at taking the leader’s jersey on Tuesday, with strong squads in that discipline.

In any event, the riders have gotten their feet wet, and the race is on.  While no one has won the Tour after today, it is always exciting to see who has stayed close amongst the contendors, and who has started to dig themselves in a hole.  With the three weeks to go, there is still alot of riding to do.

Tour de France- 2009- Preview

It’s been an event-filled year since the Tour de France last ended in Paris last July, and here we are again with the greatest sporting event in the world ready to begin again.  A lot has changed in the sport over the last 11 months.  The greatest Tour de France rider of all time has come out of a 3 year retirement, the fight against performance-enhancing drugs has continued, catching several riders committing egregious acts of wrong-doing, and newer champions have continued to evolve in the sport.  The drama of the absence of the 2007 champion, Alberto Contador, last year has been replaced with the potential intra-squad tensions over who will lead his virtual all-star squad. Last year’s edition, while perhaps devoid of a true favorite or any sort of dominant rider was nevertheless one of the most competitive in history as many as 5-6 riders vying for the top spot on the podium going into the last few days, not least of all the surprise American, Christian Vande Velde, who flew the Stars & Stripes proudly for yet another year.

 I will say that I consider this to be my 23^rd Tour which I have watched closely. While not on par with Phil Liggett or Paul Sherwen, I am proud to say that this is one of my annual passions, and I have given much thought and considerations as it pertains to the predictions I will be making today.  I will concede that some of these predictions will change in a couple weeks’ time, but they are based upon the riders who I consider to be favorites, their perceived form this season up until now, and how they will manage team tactics over a fantastic course planned out.

Before getting to my picks, I will look at three central issues:  the course, the drug issue, and the Astana affair. Each of these will be central to my picks, and towards the central enjoyment of this spectacle over the next three weeks.

THE TOUR ROUTE 2009

First of all, I think that this is a pretty interesting course this year, with some interesting twists which will favor certain types of riders.  The first thing that strikes me is the relatively low amount of individual time trial distances. In sum total, there is a short time trial (long prologue) of 15.5 km on the first day, followed by the team time trial of 38km on stage four. This amount in the first week is fairly standard, and I will say that I am in favor of the return of the team time trial. It may be because the better teams of the Americans (Garmin-Chipotle, Columbia-HTC, and Astana) tend to be skilled in this discipline, but also because I think it is a cool event, and worthy of inclusion in the best race.  Team strength should count for something, and preparation is key for this event.  I expect all three of the aforementioned squads battling for the win on Tuesday. The first stage is pretty long for a prologue, and I will say up front that the first yellow jersey on Saturday is Fabian Cancellara’s for the taking, but I think it is also an opportunity for riders like Armstrong, Leipheimer, Vande Velde, and yes, Alberto Contador, to answer some questions about their form, and indeed make some real time (:30+ seconds) over some of their closer rivals. On the flip side, with only one other individual time trial, in the last week, of 40 km, I see the advantage of the overall swinging more to the climbers than the thoroughbreds.  Guys like Leipheimer, Evans and maybe Menchov, Vande Velde or Armstrong will have to make serious gains in this last time trial if they hope to get a real advantage over the pure climbers.

On the flip side, I consider the mountains of this race to be hardest in the second half of the race.  This means a few things to the casual observer.  It means that the favorites will have to be patient and attentive for the first two weeks, without wasting too much energy.  There is a mountain-top finish on stage 7, but I doubt that anyone with real thoughts of victory really wants to be overly aggressive this early, and have to carry the burden of the jersey for two weeks. This stage will surely eliminate from contention, but I still see the favorites watching each other, and only getting minimal gains over one another.

The last week, though, includes three hard days in the Alps, the individual time trial, and the extra treat the ASO gave us this year: a penultimate day challenge up Mont Ventoux, one of the trickiest ascents in the world.  It is rare to get this type of stage right before the end, and it will fuel the excitement which comes from the idea that anything can happen on a mountain.  The favorites will have to stay strong all the way to the finish, at the end of a week which can only be labeled tortuous.

DRUGS ON THE TOUR

This wouldn’t be cycling if I didn’t have to address drugs.  I wish I didn’t, but unfortunately, recent history suggests that it will be an issue.  I will say that despite the open allegations, I am willing to concede one of two things:  everyone in the sport is a doper, or most are honest, with only a few willing to take the risks by cheating.  I am of the opinion that most of the riders are honest, with only a few people cheating.  I have also become very cynical, in that I now sort of believe that if it looks too good to be true, it probably is. Riders may make their reputations on the Tour de France, but I don’t know that riders suddenly sprout wings they never had before the Tour (see: Schumacher and Kohl, 2007), nor are modest climbers suddenly head and shoulders above the best in the world (see: Ricco or Piepoli).  I believe that experience and team strength play a real role in one’s development as a Tour rider, and there is a reason why few riders really succeed on their first time out. I am hoping that I can end this race without questioning what I have seen, rather, I will embrace the human spirit and the physical and emotional suffering which allow some men to go harder and faster, and achieve higher results than others.  I want to see these men grit their teeth, and fight for every inch and every second which may make the ultimate difference. Call me naïve perhaps, but god damnit, this is my sport too, and I want more than anything to believe that what I am seeing is real, and not something chemically contrived. 

THE ASTANA AFFAIR

Any 2009 Tour de France preview would be incomplete without an acknowledgement of the Astana situation, and its affect on the Tour this year.  To put it in context,  I will say that the most talent-ridden team I can remember of all time was the 1986 La Vie Claire squad, with 5 time Tour de France winner, Bernard Hinault, and ultimately, a 3 time winner in Greg LeMond.  They were supported by yellow jersey wearers or stage winners including Andy Hampsten (4^th that year), Niki Rutimann (9^th), Jean-Francois Bernard (12^th) and Steve Bauer (4^th in 1988, 10^th in 1985). That team was torn apart by intrasquad tensions between their two leaders, a defending and retiring champion in Hinault, and the ultimate winner in LeMond. The most dominant TEAM I have ever seen was the USPS/Discovery outfit from 2000-2005 (pick which one was the best). On those teams, the full team put aside their personal ambitions to support a chosen leader (Armstrong), and showed their strength by flexing their muscle in the mountains, and protecting Armstrong to seven wins in succession.  It would not be unusual to have the peloton be whittled down to 30 odd riders on the 3^rd or 4^th peak of the day, and still have 6-7 Postal/Discovery riders be at the front, forcing the pace, and delivering their leaders to the end.  These teams were not devoid of talent outside of Armstrong….they had Grand Tour winners like Salvodelli or Heras, classic winners like Hincapie, GC contenders like Hamilton or Landis (both pre-doping…I hope) or Yaroslav Popovych, or an Olympic champion like Ekimov.  I give a solid acknowledgement that in 2007, when Contador won, and Levi Leipheimer finished in 3^rd place, 31 seconds back, and Popovych finished in 8^th, this result was every bit as satisfying as seeing Armstrong lead the team. The key ingredient was the intelligence and shrewd management of Johan Bruyneel.

Well, the two preceding scenarios have now intertwined.  On the one hand, the Astana team, which missed last year (I will say as a Bruyneel/Armstrong bias penalty), dominated the season last year save for the Tour, with Contador winning the Giro and Vuelta, and Leipheimer taking a close 2^nd in Spain.  They have returned with the best stage racer in the world, determined to continue his march into the history books as the strongest rider of this era, only to be confronted with Armstrong’s return. And what a team it will be: Contador, the 2007 champion, and youngest rider to win all three Grand Tours, which he has done in the last two years; Armstrong, the 38 year old seven-time Tour winner, who came out of retirement to spread his message of cancer research, and scratch his competitive itches; Levi Leipheimer, 3^rd in the 2007 Tour, and 2^nd in the 2008 Vuelta…one of the most consistent stage racers in the world, and best time trialists on the planet; Andreas Kloeden, 2004 and 2006 Tour podium finisher, and now super-domestique deluxe; Yaroslav Popovych, 8^th place in the 2007 Tour, while riding for Contador and Leipheimer, he has also won a stage of the Tour on his own, and finished 3^rd in the Giro…a great Tour support rider in the mountains. Don’t forget about Haimar Zubeldia, twice 5^th in the Tour, as a great time-trialist and climber. This team is constructed to do nothing short of winning the Tour de France, and dominating the standings on paper.

Now, I will say that the questions over who would be the leader of the race may have been justified back in August, when Armstrong announced his return, but I also believe that the current queries are now just coming from journalists who need to stir things up.  Putting myself squarely in Bruyneel’s seat, I would say that Contador needs to be the leader of the team, as he is the one who is the best prepared to win the Tour.  The riders are all saying the right things, deferring to Bruyneel, or saying that the race will decide. In the end, though, I believe that this team is comprised of the utmost professionals, and they will do their job.  It could be interesting the first week, should either Armstrong or perhaps Leipheimer take real time out of Contador in the first time trial, and then be in a position to take yellow after the team time trial.  There are two things I see happening here, should this happen.  First of all, Bruyneel knows not to try and keep the lead this early; it is too long a race to waste energy from a team with real ambitions.  Secondly, he would also be smart enough to realize that 10-20 seconds possibly gained in an early time trial (which would be unlikely given that Contador is the newly crowned Spanish time-trial champion), is nothing compared to the minutes that Contador can take from either one of them in the mountains.  It would be entertaining, but nothing to worry about.

The real question comes to what role Leipheimer and Armstrong will play in the mountains.  I have no doubt that they would ride for Contador if he were in trouble, but I would be more interested in knowing if they will be doing any real pulls at the front of the group when the contenders groups grow thin (or will Armstrong still be at the front).  Levi has shown an ability to follow the best in the mountains, but I am curious to know if they will attack at all, perhaps sacrificing their own chances to let the field chase them, softening up the road for Contador, or if they will quietly and efficiently follow the leader to the end of the hardest stages. In any event, it will be a show within the spectacle to behold, and perhaps overshadow the fight for the yellow jersey, where who is winning it is actually superseded by how he wins it.

PREDICTIONS

Before I get to my yellow jersey predictions, I will briefly examine some of the other classifications. While the general classification will take the final headlines, there is a reason why the Tour is the best race in the world: it has the best riders in it, all wanting the prestige of a stage win, or even one day on a podium.

GREEN-JERSEY (POINTS)

The points competition is based primarily on those won in the sprints.  I have sometimes been a bit conflicted about this competition, as the flat stages, designed for sprints, usually have more points on tap than the mountain-top finishes or time-trials.  This has become in reality the best sprinter competition, when sometimes the most consistent finishers have been some of the g.c. contenders.  With that in mind, I think that it is clear to anyone who follows cycling that one sprinter stands head and shoulders above the others right now: Columbia-HTC British speedster Mark Cavendish.  With a team who is skilled and willing in working to bring him to the line in the best position on the flat stages, he should be able to raise his arms in victory multiple times in the first week.  It wouldn’t be completely out of the question to possibly see him in yellow, if he has a decent time trial, and Columbia equals their team time trial victory of May’s Giro d’Italia.  The big question for Cavendish is not whether he will win stages, or even how many he will win, it is if he will make it to Paris to claim the green jersey.  I will say that he is definitely motivated to do so, and has made it his ambition, so with that in mind, I would say that it his competition to lose.  If he falters in the mountains, I would give secondary nods to last year’s green jersey winner, Oscar Friere of Rabobank, and past green jersey wearer Thor Hushovd. The Spaniard and Norwegian are both savvy enough to gauge their efforts, and strong enough to get through the climbs to finish.  With many of the best sprinters of recent years sidelined, including Robbie McEwen (injury), Tom Boonen (not allowed to ride), and Erik Zabel (retirement), it would be easy to think that the sprints would suffer, but I think we may see the emergence of a newer generation, including Italian Filippo Pozatto and American Tyler Farrar.

POLKA-DOT JERSEY (CLIMBER)

I will go on record and say that it has been a while since the winner of this jersey has actually been the best climber in the race, rather he has usually been someone who has been allowed to get away from the bunch and gather up points in breakaways, while the real contenders concentrated on the final climbs, or on each other.  To say that Virenque or Jalabert was actually a better climber than Armstrong for all of those years would be ludicrous; I would suggest that you have to go back to Tony Rominger or Claudio Chiapucci, who won them while finishing on the podium, to see a top climber who also finished on the podium (this excludes both Richard Virenque and last year’s winner, Bernhard Kohl, both of whom who have admitted to doping)

As such, it is hard for me to pick someone for this award, because the best climber in the peloton is currently Alberto Contador, but he will never waste his energy chasing this jersey.  A rider like Carlos Sastre or Andy Schleck, both of whom are at their best in the highest mountains, will likewise not vie for this jersey, when they have overall aspirations.  A rider like a Yaroslav Popovych, who might be used as a patsy in a break or two, could attract some points, but probably not day after day.

I read somewhere that Sylvain Chavanal might be a contender for this jersey: a good climber who is strong enough to get into the break on some of the mountain stages, but who will ultimately not be around on the final climb, but may be able to do this day after day. I will also throw out the name of Oscar Pereiro if he shows any form at all.  I know, not a convincing pick, but until a rider is no longer in contention for the overall, I don’t see a top climber being distinguished.  I would not be surprised to see a rider like Roman Kreuzinger or Denis Menchov finish with this either, or even Andy Schleck if he falters in the time trials.

WHITE JERSEY (UNDER- 25)

I think that this jersey is Andy Schleck’s jersey to lose.  A lot has been made over Roman Kreuzinger, who I think is a great talent, but hasn’t ever really shown his ability to be up amongst the best for three weeks. When you are dealing with overall time, I will concede that Kreuzinger is probably a better time-trialist, but he will lose real time in the mountains…Schleck will have to bomb not to win this.

YELLOW JERSEY

While I am not sure that the suspense for the final winner is there, I will still do my best to give you my picks for top 10 in reverse order.  Admittedly, several of these placings will probably be close, and could be muddled, but hey….there’s nothing wrong with making picks I want to see, either. So, here we go…..

10. Christian Vande Velde (USA- Garmin- Chipotle) Admittedly, this is a pick based on homeland favoritism, and not as much based on logic or on results this year.  I was impressed, though, with his ride last year, and I believe that he gained a lot of confidence on his ability to follow the best in the Tour, and that could help him when it gets tough. Unfortunately, his lack of fitness after his injuries in May could hurt him, but the course will help him ride himself into shape, with the tougher stages being in the 2^nd half.  A good start is key to his chances. 

9. Frank Schleck (Luxembourg- Saxobank) I am giving him this pick because I see him supporting his brother this year, and not the other way around.  Frankly (no pun intended), he has had a poor season, and he might not have the form to really be a contender this year, although if Andy is in contention, he will dig in as deep as he can, which may be good enough for a top 10 placing.

8. Kim Kirchen (Luxembourg- Columbia-HTC) While I don’t think that he will find the success he had last year, when he fought for early stages and wore the yellow jersey, I think he is a strong Tour rider who will quietly follow the leaders, and not make many mistakes.  He will do well to finish here, but I wouldn’t necessarily suggest that he advances from last year.  He will need to save his energy in the first half, and be aggressive in the second half.  Perhaps he will take a dig at the polka-dot jersey?

7. Lance Armstrong (USA- Astana) Alas, this might be the best that the 7-time Tour champion will finish, if he is fortunate.  His strengths include experience and panache, which could conceivably put him in the top 5, but after watching him in the mountains in Italy, I don’t see him matching the absolute best.  If his training has allowed him to recover from the Giro, he could still vie for a stage, maybe, but there are too few time-trial kilometers for him to contend for much more.  With that in mind, I don’t see him actively sacrificing himself for Contador, or even for Contador to need it.  Armstrong will ride as a 3^rd in command, and while not being a purely protected rider, he will perhaps be given his opportunity to take a chance at a stage win (by his team), should he fall out of contention in the mountains.

6. Andy Schleck (Luxembourg- Saxobank) Pundits seem to like him as a real podium contender, with Cycle Sport picking him 2^nd.  To me, I think he may be the 2^nd best climber in the race, but he will need to demonstrate more in the time-trial to distinguish himself.  He has enjoyed a good season, and is on good form, but I wonder if his team is as strong as in the past.  Last year, they benefited by having three cards in the leader’s hand, and played off each other on Alpe d’Huez en route to the Sastre win.  This year, I see Schleck as being the clear leader, and I wonder if he has the mental strength to deal with this. A good rider, and a future contender still, but he hasn’t proven himself to me, YET.

5. Denis Menchov (Russia- Rabobank) Frankly, Menchov looked really good at the Giro last month.  Very strong in the mountains, and unbeatable in the time trials.  Unfortunately, this may be part of the problem…he looked TOO good.  I have to wonder if he didn’t spend too much of his energy in Italy.  He will be a player in the race, but I have to wonder if he will be able to attack in the Alps and gain time over his rivals to finish much higher than this.  I have to think that he may have hit a peak already. That being said, if you are not going to win the Tour, a Giro win and a Tour top 5 placing is pretty good consolation.

4. Levi Leipheimer (USA- Astana) This may be too high of a placing, but I am banking on some serious gains in the time trials.  Levi looked tired in the second half of the Giro, but on the flip side, I think that when he realized that he was not going to win, I didn’t see him killing himself either.  He is also on the best team, and will be one of the last riders with Contador day in and out.  He showed in Spain last year that he can follow the best, but will never attack his leader.   A podium placing isn’t out of the question, unless he has to sacrifice his own chances to help Contador.

3. Cadel Evans (Australia- Silence Lotto) I think that Evans’ chance to win the Tour is gone.  He had has best shot last year, and he was beaten.  He has absolutely no team to support him in the mountains, and as evidenced at the recent Dauphine, while he has tremendous form, he cannot win the race on his own.  Like Leipheimer, he is one of the best time trialists, but will never be able to out climb the specialists.

2. Carlos Sastre (Spain- Cervelo) This spot is given to him in honor of his being the defending Tour de France champion.  It is worth stating that he was the most consistent rider last year, on the best team, and he really only one the race on one day.  I can say here, with no disrespect, that he beat the field that showed up, but would not have beaten Contador, nor do I believe that he would have beaten Leipheimer.  With that in being said, he has proven himself a worthy champion, and has ridden well this year, with several strong days in the Tour of Italy.  Even though he may be one of the most consistent Grand Tour riders of his generation, and he is clearly closer to the end of his career than the beginning, his win seems to have elevated his confidence and his stature.  His new team, while not as strong as Saxobank, is solid, and will support him alone. He could conceivably ride the final slopes of Mont Ventoux, trading the stage win for the overall winner….

1. Alberto Contador (Spain-Astana) Contador will lose this Tour only if he has bad luck with crashes, injury or illness.  It will NOT be due to lack of preparation (he has reconnoitered all of the key stages a la Armstrong), lack of form (he earned a decidedly low-key 3^rd place in the recent Dauphine Libere where he simply followed the best wheels w/out any attacking), or lack of team support (see above….the best team in the world for stage racing).  He will have to deal with the pressure of having the favorites tag on him from Day One, but he had no problem with that in last year’s Giro or Vuelta.  Ignore all of the talk of team infighting, Johan Bruyneel knows where his golden meal-ticket is, and it is with Alberto Contador.  The question here lies with the issue of how aggressive he is, and when. Contador has the unique ability to crush the field in the mountains by making repeated attacks on the worst slopes until he is alone.  Being older and wiser, he may get the lead and ride conservatively to defend it, only to explode the race on Mt. Ventoux, but my money says that he will get antsy before that, and blow it up before that, making the final slope more of a victory march than a final shot at overall victory. Leipheimer, Armstrong, Kloeden and Popovych will provide solid support, but in the end, he will win this race despite them, not because of them.

In conclusion, I make these predictions based on reputation. It is a three week race, and things will change.  There are several good riders who could find themselves on this list (i.e.: Roman Kruezinger, Andreas Kloeden, Oscar Periero, Samuel Sanchez, Luis Leon Sanchez, Franco Pellizotti, Michael Rogers, Tadaj Valevic or even Yaroslav Popovych).  The great thing is that things will happen that we don’t expect.  Riders will have good days and bad…relative outsiders will make inroads on the leaders, while favorites crack.

 

I look forward to another exciting race.  Look for daily accounts and analysis of the race over the next three weeks, and sit back and enjoy.  It looks to be one helluva ride!!!!

The Wonder of New Springsteen

Last week, I finally received my copy of the new Bruce Springsteen album, Working on a Dream.  The excitement of there being a new CD being released had long since disappated, since I had expected it now for a couple of months.  The last month or so has been a fun time to be a Springsteen fan, with him singing at the inaugural cermonies, playing the half-time show of the Superbowl,  getting a Golden Globe for “The Wrestler”,announcing his new tour, and of course, his new album coming out.  I had heard and digested a few of the tracks already, and was looking forward to hearing the rest. It feels odd to have new material so quickly; Magic came out less than two years ago, and his tour just ended.  That being said, I’m not complaining.

A new Springsteen CD is a significant landmark in my life.  As wierd as it may sound, I can measure much of my life by Springsteen albums.  As far as pop music goes, Springsteen was one of the first singers I really listened to, after Billy Joel, when I was in elementary school.  I grew up to pop music in the mid-80’s, and after the Thriller phenomena died down, there was the Boss, being heralded as an American hero and pop icon, which mirrored my young (and jaded) Reaganesque views of what America was, and how we all should be.  Springsteen was something that Andrew and I shared, and I still remember the first pop album I actually owned…a copy of The River, which was given to me for Christmas by my Dad in 1985. Interestingly enough, turning me on to Springsteen was one of the best things my Dad ever gave me in my life, and it is this love that has endured longer than our own relationship has.  Getting my copy of Live 1975-85 for Christmas in 1986 was a major turning point, as it exposed me to a catalog which included some of Springsteen’s best, and certainly a writing error which has never really been matched.  Every album since, from Tunnel of Love, through the Human Touch/Lucky Town duo, to the different Ghost of Tom Joad recording, and into the Bush years of The Rising, Devils & Dust, into the folksie Seeger Sessions and back into Magic, I can trace my life, my view of America, and my evolution of my person and to a lessor extent, my politics.  Springsteen has said that he speaks about people by speaking to them.  He is not trying to simply tell his story, he is trying to connect to his audience by telling them their stories. I have seen him devolve as a pop icon, and simply retreat into his shell as a songwriter and self-satisfying musician, only to return to his roots onstage, and suddenly, as a “classic” writer, he has started to matter again in the 21st century.  He may not get much play on the radio, but as he puts it, his shows are amongst his best, and his writing matters to the pepple.  I have always remained a Bruce fan, as are his legions out there…it makes me wonder why some people suggest that he is past his prime, when all he has done has stripped himself of the trappings which come from being the stereotypical rock star, and just being a musician.

As for Working on a Dream, I have read a number of different reviews, some good and some a bit more critical.  As for me, I rate this album on the Bruce scale, which for me automatically gives an album two more stars than the average album. I’ll save my ratings of his catalog for another day, but lets just say that a “bad” boss album would still be ahead of 95% of what is popular out there today. Having given myself now two weeks plus to really digest the album, I give it 3.5 stars on the Springsteen scale, with the potential to move up to four.  A five star Springsteen album is reserved for Born to Run, the River, Darkness on the Edge of Town, Born in the USA, and Nebraska. This isn’t there.  I consider this to be a B+ album.  I put it just behind The Rising and Tunnel of Love in terms of greatness, and perhaps on par with Magic.  This is just, because alot of it was written at the same time.

I don’t consider the writing on many of the songs to be amongst Springsteen’s best, but the cuts are definitely catchy.  One of the critics for Magic said that that album sounded like Springsteen in 2007 was trying to sound like Springsteen of 20-30 years ago.  In the end, it sounded really good, but wasn’t particularly original in its lyrics.  I think Working on a Dream is a fun album, and I am looking forward to see how it links into his live show.  I was instantly drawn by Working on a Dream, which definitely has a classic Springsteen feel to it, along with the pop-rocker, My Lucky Day. Both are cool to listen to, and stick in my head….both are good traits.

In reading Springsteen’s interviews, he seems to be very drawn to the 4th track, Queen of a Supermarket.  Taking away the obvious sexual undertones of the song, it is an interesting view of someone with a secret crush on the neighborhood checkout girl.  I can’t say that I personally identify, but I thought it was an interesting take on someone else’s experience, particularly crafted from what might be a smaller town experience.  I will say that I also particularly like the catchy rhythms of Tomorrow Never Knows and Surprise, Surprise.  Neither are lyrically deep, but have a fun sound to them that brings me to mind of certain Beatles songs or Turn, Turn Turn by the Byrds.  When I think of music for music’s sake, not every song has to have a deep message, or even tell a story, like the 8 minute mini-opera of Outlaw Pete.

I think Springsteen hits his peak, though, at the end of the album.  It is important to note that this was Danny Federici’s last album, having died last year of cancer.  He did not see the end of the project, and his absence can be felt.  That being said, I think that the most important song on the album is The Last Carnival, a song written about the death of his bandmate, his friend, his brother.  Images of adventures past, and of a future without Danny are portrayed in this piece. It reminds the listener that the E Street band is not simply a rock group, but a brotherhood, and a family.  He was quoted as saying that he was proud of the bands longevity as a whole, and this just goes on to show that he really does refuse to leave anyone behind, and that Danny Federici is going along for this ride, too.

The Wrestler was a bonus track, not really fitting into the overall theme of the album, but given that it just won a Golden Globe for original song for the movie of the same name, it was worth putting on.  On the surface, it sounds like other movie tracks he has written in recent years, Streets of Philadelphia and Dead Man Walking.  He talks about the pain of another character struggling to get by, a brooding reminder of struggle and loneliness….”Tell me, can you ask for anything more?”  I’ll tell you what, listening to the song a few times made me want to see the movie, and having done so, I can see why it was so good.  The Boss captured the Mickey Rourke character dead-on, and summed up the movie and it’s lead character in a solid 3:50.

For now, I will continue to digest the album, while it basks in its own fame.  It went right to #1 on the charts, despite the fact that Springsteen will never promote it with singles or videos like most pop-stars.  This isn’t Born in the USA revisited, with Boss-mania out in full, but it is strange to see the Boss come full-circle, as if he suddenly matters again.  He is clearly a happy man, content in his family, with his band, and with the changing of the tides on the American landscape.  It would be foolish and naive for me to thingk that these great albums will keep coming forever…after all, he is close to 60, and it makes me cherish each one all the more so.  I am looking forward to seeing him come to DC  and Charlottesville in May, and hoping that his shows this time around match the energy and joy from last summer.  Most of all, though, this represents another landmark in my life, and with Working on a Dream released, I will forever make the connection of where I am in my own life, with what I was doing when this was released.  It is the same sort of connections I have made now for 24 years, every couple years when a new album has been released. Just a bit of a reminder of what is real and what is true to me, and another chance to thank Springsteen forhelping make my world a bit brighter by sharing the world through his eyes, and into my ears, mind and heart.

Contador and/or Armstrong?

On September 23rd, VeloNews.com posted the following article:

“Contador hesitant to ride with Armstrong” at http://www.velonews.com/article/83526/contador-hesitant-to-ride-with-armstrong.

My response to this article:

Dear Velonews,

 

Your article on Contador’s reaction to the Armstrong comeback and his feelings towards Leipheimer confirmed a number of things, most of which is that an Armstrong return to Astana next year would not be a good thing. I hate to say it, because I am a fan of Armstrong, Contador and Leipheimer, but this is beginning to sound like La Vie Claire (1986) all over again.

 

I will say first and foremost that I have long been an Armstrong fan, and I enjoyed every bit of his dominant career.  I celebrated his success in a way that I reserve for only my absolute favorite athletes.  While I was disappointed when he retired, I knew that it was the right time, and he was truly leaving on top, with absolutely nothing left to prove to the cycling world.  He carved out a legacy that is comparable perhaps only to Eddy Merckx himself, and will remain not just a champion in the cycling world, but in mainstream sports as well.

 

When he left, like many fans, I spent time trying to find a new hero to embrace.  Obviously, the attempt to accept Landis fell flat, and while I still root for George Hincapie whenever I can, he never was able to fill Armstrong’s shoes.  I came to embrace Leipheimer as the latest American hope, and for the most part, he has filled in the role admirably.  While he has not won the Tour, he has proven himself to be a highly capable rider, perhaps the 2nd best in the world, and worthy of acclaim.

 

Alberto Contador is easy to root for, even from an American standpoint.  He is a champion, and by most standards, the best in the world at what he does.  He essentially has taken Armstrong’s place as leader of his team, and followed the same model (and management) to all three of his Grand Tour wins.  He is someone who I can root for, and am interested in seeing fulfill a legacy of his own over the next several years.  I was angry when he couldn’t defend his title, and I felt then, as I do now, that Sastre’s victory was only due to the absence of Astana.  The race would have been ridden differently, and while I praise Sastre for victory, it was hollow in nature, without the best field being present.

 

Re-enter Armstrong now, and the whole cycling world, as I know, has become skewed. This is complicated, because Armstrong will always be Armstrong, but time has now passed him by.  Much like when Michael Jordan returned to basketball with the Washington Wizards, the sport has changed.  There are new superstars, and as time has gone on, he was not the same athlete as he was in his heyday.  He earned his rings, and had nothing left to prove, while newer, younger stars were still searching for their career-defining moments. I feel as though this is now Contador’s (and Leipheimer’s) team, and as hard as it is for me to say it, Armstrong really doesn’t have a place in it any more. Obviously, he has nothing to benefit from coming back to try and win more minor races, unless he wanted to be a leader for the Giro or Vuelta, but having won all three Grand Tours, it is clear that winning the Tour now should be the annual goal of Alberto Contador. The best rider should always deserve to fight for the top prize, and I hope that he can do so on the best team.  He has a team that is the strongest in the stage races, and he has youth and strength on his side.  Bruyneel (and Astana) have a firm foundation to support him, while maintaining secondary options for lower placings, should he falter (Leipheimer & Kloeden). Armstrong returning complicates this by putting Bruyneel in a tough spot.  You don’t want to see Armstrong working on another team, but given that he probably only has a season or two left anyways, why disrupt a strong team chemistry, and pushing the best rider out the door.

 

While I was gratified by Contador’s initial remarks of being gracious towards Armstrong, I do understand his more recent confession that he doesn’t want to ride with him.  I feel like in all reality he has earned that right, the right to have a champion’s ego, and be able to ride for himself.  After all, he is the leader of the best team in the world, and shouldn’t have to sidestep for anyone. I just don’t see this whole comeback thing ending well for anyone.

 

I would like to address his remarks towards Leipheimer, though.  I feel like it may be selfish of Contador to imply that Leipheimer didn’t work for him.  I thought that Levi was clear in putting Contador above him and his personal ambitions.  The fact that the finishes were so close were indicative of his performances in the time trials, where Levi had tremendous form.  Contador took time out in the mountains, and Levi neither attacked him, nor led his competitors back up to him.  Levi clearly had tremendous form, and whether he was 46 seconds back, or 1 second back, I felt as if he did his job.  Had something happened to Contador, Astana still would have been in line to win. 

 

I do feel Contador’s frustration, and I only hope that this ends well.  American cycling is still alive and well, and even when Contador wins on Astana, I still feel as though it is a win for American, in that Bruyneel’s teams will continue to have the same look/feel as when they were Discovery/USPS…America’s team.

 

Maybe these views aren’t popular.  It is clear to me that Leipheimer will never win the Tour, but can continue to finish close behind his captain in the biggest races.  An ideal situation would be for Astana to support Contador for the Tour, and let Levi captain the Vuelta squad, while riding second fiddle in July.  In the mountains, Contador rules, while Levi rides for himself in the time trials.  Astana finishes with two riders highly placed.  Armstrong needs to either re-think his sporting ambitions, or find another team….Garmin Chipotle? Columbia?  I have low expectations for what he can truly achieve in a 38 year old comeback, and while I would celebrate success, very little would surprise me, either.

 

I hope that Bruyneel can manage perhaps the most difficult challenge of his career, and maintain superiority over the world of cycling without having a family crumble from within.

XB Cox, IV: Retrospective on Perspective

Today’s date, September 22nd, is a day I will remember for the rest of my life. It was two years ago today that XB Cox, IV passed away following a brave fight against luekemia.  He was not the first person I had ever known who had passed away, but I can honestly say that his death has probably touched me more than any other I have known.  I think about Boone every single day, bar none.  His was a senseless passing, bothersome not just because of the suffering he endured, but moreso because of the fact that I firmly believe that Boone was destined to make a difference in this world.

Maybe it is a bit odd for a teacher/coach to feel so attached to a former student-athlete.  I mean, I am told that it is my role to try and affect the lives of my kids in a positive manner…to educate, to guide, maybe even to inspire.  This is one of the things that keeps me going when my job gets tiresome…my hope that I might make a real difference in the life of a youngster, the same way I had my own teachers/coach do for me.  I may never really know just what difference I made in Boone’s life, but the difference he made in mine has been seemingly immeasurable. I am told that I am only supposed to be a teacher to my students, and not their friend….but once in a while, I have found those students who exceed that boundary.  Maybe once or twice a year, I am lucky to work with someone whom I know I will remain close with as the years go by.

I should make it clear today, as I reflect on Boone and his death.  I don’t miss Boone because of the memories I have…I keep those locked inside me and will never let those go. I miss Boone each day because of the man he could have/should have become.  I miss hearing about his latest achievement, or his most recent prank, or seeing him come home from college, becoming more of a man everyday.  I am privileged to see some of those every year from my alumni…and I will not get to see the latest chapter in Boone’s life. I will have to be content with four years of running, of laughter, of races and pranks.  I will keep Boone in my memory as a leader, and as one of the guys.  He was never the absolute fastest one on the team, but he was central to anything we were ever doing, and he was part of an era…part of a group of young men and women I will remember fondly for the rest of my life.  Even today, I fondly remember his fun side….the ninja and the yo yo incidents…Halloween 2004 (Centreville style)…the assassination game….and 1001x 10¹⁰⁰ pushups for the J-Bomb….to hearing how he would tell his mother to tell Brad that he was running on Sunday, when in reality he was playing video games. This is the Boone I will remember, but only moreso.  I remember his tenacity when racing, the pride he took out of leading off the Chantilly Boys 4×800m Relay team.  He was part of a brotherhood that has not been duplicated since. I recall roadtrips, and weeks at camp, usually accompanied by some sort of antic of which he was an integral part. I remember how he was always at his best when it mattered most…at districts, or regionals…or when his teammates were counting on him.  He was a teammate, a friend and a brother…and I have mental images that I still see everyday….of him shifting gears on the backstretch…of him adorned in a ninja mask…and with is broad smile, even after he got sick.

Maybe the special thing about Boone is that despite his death, if not because of it, he continues to affect people, and not just me.  I am certain that he would have made something of himself had he lived…a professional success, and a committed family man, but he has also left his mark in death.  He didn’t live to see 20 years old, but I know in the five years I knew him, he changed my life permanently.  His own words inspired people to get involved with a cause…cancer or whatever…and to make a difference. Boone always knew the difference between what was right and wrong, and usually followed the right path.  He was always willing to put the other guy ahead of him.  I remember the year after he got sick, still coming out to see how his team was doing, or to cheer on his sister.  Even at his frailest moments, he still had the time and energy to laugh a bit with his friends, to put on a brave face, and make everyone else feel better about his situation.

I think if nothing else, Boone’s death brought alot of people together, and have created an unliftable bond that will remain forever.  The memories we share, the stories we can recall, the smiles that are brought to each other’s faces are invaluable.  Boone may have just been one of the guys, but he was one helluva young man.  He helps me keep things in perspective, in that I know that no matter how bad things may seem, I really have things pretty good.  I’ve never been really sick, and I’ve never suffered in the way he did.  I have experienced loss, but I have never had to deal with the fear that must come from my own mortality.  I have never had to really question “Why me?” I don’t know if Boone went through these questions….human nature would say that he must have, but he never let it on.  He is a reminder of what is good in the world, and that you can make a difference, if not in deed, then in words and in spirit.  I am proud to use his initials on my track invitational, and to wear them on the jerseys for our ad hoc track club.  I hope that I can tell these same stories for generations to young men and women long after those who actually knew are gone.  I hope to be able to reminisce with others on the affects that Boone had on our lives, even as the years continue to go by. Some may say…”get over it…move on”…but this is something…someone, who has touched me in a way that I can never forget.  It belies professional or academic/athletic boundaries….Boone was/is my friend, and he serves as a real inspiration as to what greatness really entails.

I know it is easy to use today’s anniversary as an impetus for writing this, but I have these thoughts every day.  I don’t expect everyone to understand….that’s not that big a deal to me, though.  This is personal to me, and I know that there are alot of other people who have similar emotions. Boone Cox was an extraordinary young man, and in a short time, he made such a difference. I look forward to the annual Light the Night walks to benefit luekemia research, but I also look forward to each day, in hopes that I might be able to somehow inspire people even a small percentage as Boone did. I hope that someday I might be remembered for making a difference in someone’s life….thank you for all you have done, Boone.  Somehow, I know, somewhere, you are smiling.

 

Hail to a Warrior; Goodbye to an era gone by

This past Friday, an era finally came to its end.  It was something that was completely expected, a journey that was in the works for over twenty years. One could say that in some ways, it was a storybook ending for a tale that had its ups and downs, but still ended happily.  For me, though, it closed a book on a period in my life I will never ever forget. On September 5, 2008, Patrick Ewing was inducted into the Hall of Fame.

It is not as if this moment was unexpected.  The announcement came back in April, and even then, it felt like it was just going through the motions.  Patrick has been retired for over 5 years, now, and he had proven his Hall of Fame credentials for probably ten years before retiring.  Nearly 25,000 points, over 11, 000 rebounds, nearly 3000 blocks, leading the Knicks in nearly every major category that means anything, and being an 11-time all-star only scratches the surface of his greatness. Despite the on-again, off-again, love-hate relationship that he shared with New York, he WAS the Knicks for fifteen seasons.  He was their offensive and defensive leader, but he was also their spiritual provider.  He was a blue collar warrior in a ritzy town.  I’d like to think that in the end, the true Knicks fan, like I am, really did appreciate all that he brought to the table, night in and night out.  While all great things have to come to an end, as his career in New York did that sad day in September, 2000, some memories never die.

I have grown up being a basketball fan, and for me, I can trace my youth while watching the career of Patrick Ewing.  He made Georgetown basketball matter back when I didn’t know anything about basketball, but growing up in this area, the two names I knew were Patrick Ewing (of Georgetown fame), and the Knicks (my hometown team).  Back before it mattered to me, I still remembered seeing that Ewing was drafted by the Knicks, and feeling like somehow, they were right for each other.  I remember rooting for the Knicks as I grew older.  I didn’t really follow them so much, but I can remember watching games with my brother, and it was something we shared.  The first game I really remembered seeing was Game 5 of the 1990 Eastern Conference opening round against Boston.  It was a Sunday afternoon, and we were watching the game together, and I remember how Patrick wouldn’t let them lose.  These were the Celtics; one of the great franchises of the 1980’s, still with Larry Bird.  I remember Patrick hitting that fall-away 3 pointer from the left-hand corner, and thinking that shot had to indicate something.  Obvioulsy, history will show that the Knicks lost to Detroit in the next round, but at that point, I just remember thinking that no one in the league was more “powerful” than Patrick, and that it was just a matter of time before he would take the Knicks to the Promised Land.

I remember that Andrew went off to college, and I followed a year later.  The 1990-91 season was a forgettable one.  Patrick scored 28.6 points a game (yes, I remember his numbers), and 10.9 rebounds a game, to go with 3+ blocked shots, but the were embarassed in the first round by the Bulls, who would go on to win their first championship.  I was a graduating senior in high school, and still into enough other things not to notice quite as much.  When I went off to college though, is when I really started following Patrick and the Knicks with a fervor.  Keep in mind that this was really before the true birth of the internet, but I still managed to track every box score from every game he played, from the beginning of the 1991 season, up until he retired.  I still have the Excel spreadsheet that I kept, more or less every night.  I became fascinated with statistics, partially because I wanted to see where he stacked up against his peers, but later, to see just where his place in history would be.  It is an interest I still have today.  It is a real pleasure to be able to identify players you know are not just contemporary greats, but indeed, who you know when watching, you are really watching history in the making.  I don’t feel that way about too many players today.  It is not because there aren’t good players, maybe even all-time greats, but because I haven’t found myself as emotionally attached to the trials and tribulations of Patrick Ewing.  I think that the only modern player I can follow in a similar way is probably Tim Duncan, who I firmly believe plays “the right way”.  Just like Patrick, I believe that he leaves it on the floor every single night, plays offense and defense, and cares more about winning a game, than in filling up his box score.  Duncan is a champion many times over, and when he retires, I will know that I have witnessed one of the greats that will stand the test of time.

The 1990’s were a great time for the Knicks, and as a fan, I enjoyed them as well.  Patrick was celebrated as one of the game’s great players, and the Knicks were consistently playing deep into the playoffs.  Unfortunately, for both Ewing and the Knicks, there was always someone/some team in the way.  If it wasn’t Jordan and the Bulls, it was Olajuwon and the Rockets.  As Ewing aged and the Knicks revamped into the LJ/Allan Houston era, they had epic battles with the Alonzo Mourning Heat, and the Reggie Miller Pacers.  They lost out the Spurs in the 1999 finals.  They may never have crossed over the top of the mountain, but they kept open their window of opportunity about as long as could possibly be expected, and they did it by playing the game the right way.

I will respect Ewing for setting the tone for how to play the game of basketball.  He probably sweat more than any athlete (or human being) I can remember, but he did it by giving his all to play defense, and in standing tall from the first minute to the last, win or lose.  Critics would say that the 1990’s Knicks were boring, ugly, and played dirty.  It is true that some of their games, when the shots were not falling, could be a bit on the ugly side, but I loved every minute of it.  They played a style of defense that was true New York in every way.  It was about pride, and standing their ground, and thuggishness aside, Ewing made them into warriors, just as he was.  They never made excuses, and they never lost faith in themselves.  New York can be a tough town to please, and Ewing stoicly shouldered the burden of their annual playoff exits, only to guarantee that they would return to fight another day.

I believe that there are certain traits I have patterned after Patrick, and not just in my game. (Even though I did my best to make a 5′ 11″ white boy into a 7′ 0″ center….there is only so much I could emulate, even if I played with friends who were shorter than me).  I try to emulate his work ethic, and I know that like Patrick, I try to block out alot of the negativity that can surround me.  I don’t deal with external drama around me; I like to go to work, do my job well, and go home.  I don’t feel the need for excess flashiness, and I am also a bit guarded as to exactly who I let into my world.  I consider myself loyal to a fault, and for a true friend, I will do anything for you.  That being said, I know that to alot of outsiders, it can come across as aloofness or indifference, but if I really wanted you to know my business, you would already know it.  Otherwise, your opinion of me just doesn’t matter much.

Ewing’s career trailed off for a couple remaining years with stops in Seattle and Orlando, before he retired.  The Knicks have never really recovered, and as an NBA fan, I have struggled to find the same kind of love that I had when I rooted for Patrick and the Knicks.  I will always be a Knicks fan, even if their present state is pathetic, with moronic management.  I have searched for those remaining connections….the Georgetown alums, the few remaining real-post centers which play like Patrick, but really, these are just cheap substitutes.  For over 15 years, I considered myself a true Hoops junkie, catching hundreds of games (whatever NBC and TNT offered, prior to getting access to the NBA league pass), and reading hundreds of box scores (mostly torn from newspapers, before I could get almost instant internet access).  I set my schedule around when the Knicks played, and I internalized their winning and their losing.  I can remember important dates by what happened with the Knicks.  I remember my college graduation was the same day as the Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Semi-finals, when Patrick brought the Knicks back,only to lose it in the final seconds when a finger roll in the lane rimmed out.  I remember vividly the year when Patrick broke his wrist on a stupid defensive play by Milwaukee’s Andrew Lang.  I remember in 1994 when they beat the Bulls in Game 7 (Patrick was scoreless at the half, but had 17 points in the 2nd half to win).  I remember hearing play-by-play of the last 2 minutes of the Game 7 against Indiana, when he threw down the John Starks miss for his 24th point and 22nd rebound (I was watching The Flintstones movie with my then girlfriend, who complained that a “stupid game” was more important than she was….). Then of course, there was the madness of losing a quarter of Game 5 in the finals, watching OJ in his dumbass car chase…couldn’t he have run at another time? I remember sitting through a friend’s graduation at Gettysburg with Jamal, watching the Knicks lose to the Heat after losing players to a suspension, but not without Patrick pouring in 36 points in the losing effort.  I will always remember the year when  I met one of my best friends, Lynn, because she gave me play by play of games from the NY/Atlanta Eastern Conference Semi-Finals, en route to the finals in 1999.  I will remember where I was when I heard he was traded, and what I was doing when he finally retired (I had a pretty decent car accident the day after that one, too).  One of the best moments of my life was going to Madison Square Garden in February, 2003 to see his number retired.  To see New York finally appreciate him the same way I did made me proud to be a fan.  There will always be the woulda, coulda, shoulda’s about his career.  He was always one of the top players, but never the MVP.  The Knicks were always a competitor, but never one the title.  I can think of at least 5 different seasons when I really thought they could have, if not should have won the title, but didn’t.  But this is not to lament what didn’t happen…it is to celebrate what did take place.

I am a bit sad now, because in all reality, this is a very real chapter in my life that is officially over.  For all of the souvenirs I have in my basement…the jerseys hung, the figurines on the mantle, the trading cards in the binder, and the hours upon hours of games I still have on tape, Patrick Ewing now belongs to the ages of the Hall of Fame.  I traced my life from childhood, through my adolescence, and well into adulthood following this man.  I don’t idolize what he did as a basketball player per se….I don’t care about the money, or the bling, or all that fame carries.  I don’t care so much about the points scored, etc, as I do about how he carried himself,  on and off the court.  I admire the way he always played the game; all out.  He dedicated himself to being the absolute best he could be, and he always laid all his cards out on the table.  These are life lessons, and I hope I have learned them well.  As I have watched my boyhood heroes retire over the past few years, there are very few left, and I have been fortunate to see some get immortalized into the Halls of Fame.  Nevertheless, I doubt that I will ever have the same connection with another athlete, in any sport, than I did with this man.

I raise my glass to all that Patrick Ewing accomplished.  He earned his place in the Hall of Fame by truly embodying greatness, and with dealing with all of the enormous pressures placed on him since Day One.  No one can argue with his significance in the history of the game.  For me, though, he taught me how to truly embrace a sport, how to look at it from different angles, and how to become a true enthusiast.  It is not enough, to me, just to celebrate an individual’s achievements, without becoming a student of the whole sport.  This is why I consider myself a real NBA fan, and one with a real opinion.  I have taken this same approach to studying other sports, but I will never be as in tune with the NFL or MLB as I am with the NBA.  I feel like my stepfather, Arn, who can speak with authority about his memories of Ted Williams and the great Red Sox teams of yesteryear. I only hope that as I move on with my life, I can pass on similar tales to my children of the great wars fought on the court by Patrick Ewing, a player for the ages.

Skeptical and Cynical

I wonder these days if there is anyone else who feels as bummed by the Olympics right now as I do.  It doesn’t mean I don’t like them, and it certainly doesn’t mean that I don’t root for the US to win. I feel torn…skeptical, and looking at what I see as a dirty world with a cynical eye. I know that the Olympic virtue is all about celebrating athletic achievement at the highest level, man against man, country against country.  I remember years in the past where the Olympics were everything, and for athletes in many sports, this is the pinnacle of sporting achievement.

I hate the fact that when I look at the Olympics now, perhaps more than ever, I don’t see sport in its purest form. I see what I consider real possibilities of doping at its highest.  Mind you, I have no real evidence to base this on.  I am not relying on past positive drug tests, and I am not basing my suspicions on heresay. I am basing my thoughts on past circumstances, where when I celebrated winning, only to find out later that was was celebrated was in fact false. I remember when Ben Johnson got busted in 1988, and thinking how awful that was, and that it couldn’t get worse than that.  I feel like in the 20 years since then, just when I think things can’t worse in sport, they have.

I have always felt like I am an optimist when it comes to sport.  I thrive on understanding history, and trying to place contemporary athletes into the proper context.  I love the feeling that I get when I believe I am witnessing true greatness, athletes and events that will stand the test of time.  When I grew up watching guys like Joe Montana and Michael Jordan, I knew that I watching witnessing some of the best of all time in their sports.  I remember watching Carl Lewis, and later Michael Johnson breaking records and winning gold medals.  I remember thinking that their feats would find their lasting places in the annals of track & field history.  I remember where I was and what I was doing when I heard that Greg LeMond had won the 1989 Tour de France on the last day when no one would have predicted it. There was a time when I could watch sports of almost any type, and not wonder if it was too good to be true. If I saw it, it must be true.

Unfortunately, over the last twenty years, this has eroded. I have become what I always argued against.  I am becoming someone who questions which athletes are clean, and which feats are doped…or when the fans (like me) are being duped. I absolutely hate this feeling.  I feel like half of the games, races or events that I see nowawadays should be followed if not by an asterisk, at least by a question mark. I hate the fact that I do my own internal judgement as to who is for real, and who is not. I feel like I have been burned in the past, and I am tired of that.  I will admit that I was very much in Marion Jones’ corner back in the early 90’s.  She is an American who was kicking ass.  She was fast, strong, beautiful and a winner…a sporting and marketing dream.   I remember thinking that all of the allegations I heard surrounding her had to be false.  She had a doping ex-husband, but that she wouldn’t do anything….why should she, she already had it all. I was wrong.

I remember pulling for Barry Bonds to break records.  I didn’t care that he was an asshole, and I didn’t care that the pictoral evidence clearly showed that he had morphed.  There was a time when I though that if you work hard enough, you could transform your body.  I had rooted for Mark McGwire who was exponentially more likeable, to break the single season home run record.  I reason that records are really made to be broken, and you just hope that the person who breaks them is someone who you can reasonably support and admire, and that they are doing it legitimately.  Again…I was wrong.

I stood behind Tyler Hamilton and I supported Floyd Landis when they both were found positive for doping.  Cheating was always something that they other guy did…the foreigners.  (Ignore the previous two paragraphs). When Americans were caught, I looked for the procedural errors, hoping that they would be found innocent, at least on a technicality.  These were guys whom I admired and rooted for….they were the perrenial underdogs who had made it to the top.  In the end, I am convinced that whatever the reason, and regardless of the arguments made and the denials given…they were the same desparate men that the Europeans are….the East Germans of the 1970s, the Russians of the late 1980’s, the French cyclists and the Chinese distance runners of the 1990’s.  They were cheaters, probably products of a system, but highly visible symbols or what happens when you roll the dice and get caught.

I guess that I have gotten to the point where I am not always convinced that it is innocent until proven guilty, as it comes to sport. It really sucks, because I don’t believe that as it pertains to due process.  I really do believe in protecting the athlete from the organizing bodies, just as I believe in protecting the rights of the individual against the judicial system.  I just feel like when the same denials are issued to explain things, I have been burned one too many times, and I am calloused against the arguments.  I am not sure that I believe solely in transparency of testing. It is a good step, but I know that organized dopers are always three steps ahead of the testing. (Please note that I am referring to a group or team of dopers, not necessarily the poorly informed individual who can’t even cheat right). I am no longer willing to accept that changes in technology or equipment can always be used to explain advancement in achievement. This has been suggested to be the cause for decades. When the Eastern Bloc was kicking Olympic ass in the 1970s and 80s, it was supposed to be due to advanced training methods. We know how that this wasn’t completely true.

I used to believe that all you needed was the will to train hard and the heart to endure in battle. Of course, some genetic talent helped, and proper nutrition, training techniques, etc.  There are alot of legal ways to succeed and to get ahead, and hey….sometimes a bit of luck helps. And in some sports (ie: baseball, basketball, football…your destiny can be affected by what your opponents do/don’t do). Unfortunately, for the sports I follow closest, where success is not just measured by a first place/gold medal, but by a time, distance, or mark, I am skeptical of not just who is winning, but how and by how much.

I will say it here and now, and I know that I am in the unpopular minority in America right now: I opnely and widely suspect that swimming has succombed to the same practices that track and cycling have endured for decades. I believe that it is widespread, and that (gulp) the Americans are at the heart of it. I hate to say it, but I have this huge fear that at some point in history, maybe after he retires and the endorsements are gone and the races are over, Michael Phelps will be called out for having been a cheater.  I don’t know if it is something he will have initiated himself, or if USA Swimming is to blame.  For the record, I have nothing against Michael Phelps as a person or as a celebrity. I WANT to root for him, and I want to join the rest of American in celebrating him and his quest for gold. I want to be able to say that he is becoming the best Olympian, before our eyes, and that he would be someone we could look back at years from now, and say that you remembered when he did that.  Unfortunately, I am too skeptical.

It is not just Phelps though, although if you are going to be at the forefront of the Olympics (and of his sport), that is the first place to look.  I started thinking about this several weeks ago, when I read about Dana Torres, the 41 year old swimmer who won the Olympic trials in some sort of record time, all after having a baby and two shoulder surgeries.  Common sense, if not science, should explain clearly that athletes don’t get better with advanced age (I don’t necessarily think that 30’s/early 40’s is old…unless you are an athlete).  You don’t get exponentially faster than you were 10 years earlier when you hit 40.  In the same way, I have to question it when world records seem to get not just beaten, but demolished on a weekly basis.

Maybe it is just me, but I always saw records as being difficult to beat, and when they did get beaten, they tend to be narrowly eclipsed, not demolished.  I know what the proponent say:  They get tested, often and openly; they have new suits; they used new techniques.  Okay…I get it…explanations are there.  They are the same ones used in the past. I have watched two races this weekend, both won by Phelps and the Americans: the miracle 4×100m upset on Sunday, and an individual 100m freestyle victory.  Both of them were gold medal performances, and both were world records. What gets me is that it is not just Phelps breaking records….the top 5 relay teams broke the world 4×100m record…an record set a day before by the USA “B” team…..the JV team broke the fastest time in the history of swimming without its fastest three legs…and five more teams were even faster the next day.  They are shaving multiple seconds off records which are usually decided by hundredths of a second.  To me….common sense dictates that I question this, and I guess that my response is contrary to what most of the American public is seeing.   Making I am jaded and beaten down.  I urge America to support Olympics and enjoy the spectacle….just don’t call this the greatest in history anymore…its not.  I really feel like I will forever be waiting for that proverbial shoe to drop, because I can only imagine that it will come, and come loudly.

I will address one question that my good friend posed to me…what do I think about Lance Armstrong?  If will damn everyone else, where does he stand? Can he fairly be seen as an exception to my argument? My answer is this….I don’t know anymore where I stand, and I don’t know that I want to know.  I watched him for years, and I know that he worked his ass off to be the best.  I don’t know if he cleanly beat the best that the world had to offer, dopers and all, or not.  I know that I took his side for seven years, because his story was inspirational, he was an American against the rest of the world, and the French could easily be seen as being sour grapes in light of the beating they took.  Whenever he was confronted with heresay or circumstantial evidence, he always found a way to explain it away.  I really really really do want to believe he is innocent, and that what I celebrated is for real, and that he was honest.  Now……..I just don’t know. I feel like in the best interest of the sport, it is probably best that the truth is never brought out in this respect.  If he came out as an admitted doper, it do serious damage to the sport in this country, and I really do believe that corporate sponsors would really think strongly before committing to this sport, when the most visible figure in the history of the sport was a confirmed cheat.

To clarify, I am not accusing Lance of cheating. I am assuming that he is being honest, but I am afraid that I would not be surprised if the truth came out some day if he were to confess…….I just hope that isn’t the case.  I am not sure that I am accusing swimming of being dopers….but I have very strong suspicions based upon patterns I have seen.  I am writing this not to damage anyone’s reputation or smear their achievements or dampen the celebration.  I am writing this because I feel awful that I don’t enjoy sport for pure sport value anymore. I no longer can believe many records, certainly if I can’t see the real human suffering. I feel cheated simply because I am overcome with feeling of anger and cynicsm, and the guilt of skepticism. It is a reflection of how sport has changed, and indeed how I have changed.  I hope to one day regain my joy and my trust in what I see and read….I just know that for now, while the country and the world regale in the heights of the Olympics this year…I can only shake my head and role my eyes, knowing that what we see is not always what is real.

With Induction comes reflection

Hail to the Redskins!!!! At long last, two of the classiest football players in the history of the game, if not all of professional sports, were inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame: Washington Redskins Darrell Green and Art Monk.  Both exhibited the dignity of men of true character, men who played the game the way it should have been.  Both were celebrated the way they deserved to, on the grandest stage, in front of all of the football world, and they went in together, to take their rightful places amongst the immortals of football.  For Monk, this was the end of a long journey, starting with as successful a career most wide receivers could hope for, breaking records, and being a key part on one of the winnegest franchises in the 80’s, and ending after 8 inexplicable years of not campaining openly for voting support.  For Green, it was an honor which was bestowed on the fastest man in the league, a true Redskin in every respect, and a man who played at the highest level for the same team for twenty years. Their careers were chronicled by limitless cliches, but their names were usually followed by words like “class”, ”dignity”, “respect”, ”toughness” and “character”, not to mention a real allegience to the Washington Redskins. As such, this was a day which I will remember forever, because their play has inspired me for years.

It is not just that they are Redskins going into the Hall of Fame, but their enshrinement truly is my link to Redskins football for most of my life, back to when I started watching football with the 1982 Super Bowl.  I don’t remember too much from my earliest days, but I do know that these two men always displayed class on the field and off, and subscribed to the highest morals which great men demonstrate.  I cannot say that I am as reverent as these men; when they speak the gospel, I know that they believe in every word as their salvation.  I respect that they hold true to their virtues, and have demonstrated respect for themselves, their teams and their competitors, honoring the greatest values of the sport.  They have been, and remain solid pillars in their community…in my community, and they continue to give back, quietly and humbly, to help others out, in a manor which is nothing but credible and real.

Seeing them get in is a pleasure, because it validates the feelings I always held when I watched them play; the realization that I was watching true greats.  It is hard for me to decide who really fits this mold in the current crop of NFL stars.  I know that some guys will certainly be in the Hall of Fame, and some are obvious, while others are less clear, until their playing days are done.  Some great players are flashes in the pan, while others persevere from year to year.  There may be more accomplished players than Green and Monk, but none that I know of can be considered more admirable and respected as men than these two.  They truly played the game, and live their lives…the right way, the Redskin way, and they did so in a way that is truly rare, nowadays…a manner I will miss as the generations pass.

I think that one of the reasons I am really motivated to write about this has nothing to do with celebration, but actually, a bit of sadness.  I have been a sports fan as long as I can remember.  I don’t believe in athletes necessarily being heroes in the traditional mold, but I do acknowledge having certain men whom I idolized both for their play and their characters.  I am sad, because over the past few years, many of them have retired, and I struggle to find new athletes to favor in the same way.  The comforting thing, though, is to see that I am not alone in celebrating my childhood idols as all-time greats.  Last year, I saw Cal Ripken go into the Hall of Fame; tonight I saw Green and Monk get inducted, and in September, Patrick Ewing will be enshrined. They all played with the skill of the greats, and with the attitude of a champion, and still managed to set positive examples worthy of emulation.

I am reflective because these are links to my childhood. Life goes on, of course, and wonderful things take place.  It is satisfying to see your idols celebrated, but it is also hard to accept that the road really is over, and that you will never ever see them play again, or get the chance to celebrate them as athletes in the same way.  I am a Redskin fan now and forever, but these men represent the last link to an era clearly gone by.  Washington is Redskin city, and it is always a better place when they are winning.  I won’t use this forum to go into how they have eroded into a mediocre shadow of its former self, but thinking about these players brings me back to a era gone by.  Some of my great memories involve watching the great Redskins teams of the past, and it is a real part of me. As I have grown from a boy to a man, these players were constants.  As they have gone on to other things, so to have those parts of my life.  I am not complaining per se, but it is a bit sad, at least a cause for nostalgia, to think about this. This feeling is difficult to express through words, but I guess what it comes down to is that I can feel a connection with the past, of my youth gone by, when I see their highlights, and the realization is here that I too have had to move on. 

I am happy, and I am still a sports fan.  I will watch Patrick’s enshrinement with eagerness, and I will enjoy the twlight years of some of my other remaining ”idols”, guys like Mike Mussina, or NASCAR’s Mark Martin.  I will still enjoy watching some of the contemporary greats…guys like Tim Duncan. and Peyton Manning…and….I am struggling to think of athletes who I respect with the same reverence and for the same reasons as these other Hall of Famers from the past…(especially from the Knicks and the Redskins…my teams). It is perceivable that I will never see athletes like Green and Monk, or like Ripken or Ewing, not so much from the talent standpoint, but from the eye of a young man, looking for idols to look up to, and now struggling to find men with the complete package.  It is one thing to root for a man, and to enjoy his play; it is quite another to actually respect them as people.

I go to bed tonight satisfied in hailing two great men into the Hall of Fame, and I will treasure my memories, and the joy that  I remember having watching them. Thank you, Darrell and Art…for the memories, for the way you played, for the character you displayed…and for giving me figures and reasons to look up to you.  Hail to the Redskins!!!!

Tour de France 2008- Finale

I’m writing this as the final stage is taking place, and I am assuming that all of the results are set in stone, save for the winner on the Champs Elysees.  That being said, after yesterday’s time trial, I consider this a perfectly good time to reflect on the race this year.

This would be an appropriate time to offer my congratulations to Carlos Sastre.  I realize that he was not one of the hot favorites, but I will say that I consider him to be a worthwhile champion.  Sometimes, you win races by being agressive; other times you win by simply making no mistakes.  I believe that both of these apply to Sastre.  He was capably shepparded by his team when possible, and yet he was one of the few riders who was able to make a decisive move when it really counted (on l’Alpe d’Huez), and rode a time trial that was strong enough to defend his lead.  He has been a solid professional for many years, always being close, but never really tasting the ultimately glory.  I am very happy for him because he really seems to be a humble gentlemen, and has done nothing to tarnish the sport. Given the field this year, I will say that I consider him a worthy winner.

With this in mind, however, I will take this time to say that Sastre won a race that was devoid of superstars, and I would be surprised to see him win again next year.  He made some good decisions, and obviously held some good form, and he deserves the accolades he will receive. With that being said, I would not put him on the same level of some of the Tour greats.  This has been a competitive event, simply because of the parity of the field.  I consider the peleton to be in a transition, in that they are searching for a patron, and right now, I only really see one obvious superstar in the current crop of Tour riders, and he wasn’t allowed to ride and defend his title. This gave a chance for a number of very good riders vie for the title, and I feel as though each one of them gave it a real shot. Unfortunately, this year also showed how when there is really only one dominant team, they can really dominate the field, and unfortunately no other team were capable of breaking their stranglehold on the race, or at least really willing to do so.

For a number of riders, I wonder if they will consider this year to be a wasted opportunity.  For Cadel Evans, the pressure to win must have been enormous. He was the highest returning finisher, and with no Contador this year, he was the consensus pick to win the race.  He came in with good form, and rode a tactically sound race. On paper, he really made no mistakes, perhaps except for allowing Sastre so much time on Alpe d’Huez, a stage where it would have been unlikely that he could have dragged his chase group all alone.  His inability to win the race in the time trial yesterday showed that he really is not the great champion that this great race requires. It is conceivable that his early crash may have affected him, but I still felt as if he rode too cautiously, and waited for the race to come to him.  He was also hampered by a lack of team support. He is a strong rider, solid in all disciplines, but I believe that he lacks the championship demeanor which allows him to put the stamp on the race, in the manor of many of the past great winners.  He will still contend for another year or two, but I believe that his best opportunity has passed this year.

Denis Menchov also proved that he will never win the Tour de France, for similar reasons.  He is solid in all areas of the sport, and has the ability to stay with the best riders in the world up in the mountains, and in the time trials.  Unfortunately, he also showed an inability to attack the leaders, and gain the edge needed.  He also showed a need to pay attention in the bunch, losing precious seconds on seemingly easy stages.  His fourth place has got to seem like a disappointment of sort, in that his palmares would have suggested that he would be on the podium, at least.

I am not sure what to make of Alejandro Valverde.  He may be one of the most talented cyclists in the world, and maybe, one day he will put it all together.  He is still somewhat young, and very strong.  I would consider this the first time he has really been picked as a real favorite, and I think that caused him to make some mistakes.  He clearly wasted too much energy in the first week, chasing stages and carrying the yellow jersey.  It was a good idea for his sponsors, but unfortunately it killed his overall chances.  He seems like the type of rider who may always be prone to a bad day in the mountains, and he clearly needs to work on his time trialling. It is tough to say what his real limits are, because I believe now (as I did 3 weeks ago), that he held his best form in June, and he was really lacking the fortitude to hold it for the full Tour.  He made his mark on this race, but I think that in the modern peleton, you have to base your early season all on winning the Tour, and not trying to be ultra-competitive throughout the spring and through June.  Looking at the winners over the past 10-12 years, you will see that most of them have only tried to win the Tour, picking and choosing certain targets leading up to it, but never looking to peak for early season wins.

I don’t want to make it seem as though this Tour was without its stars; there were several riders who stepped forward, and it will be interesting to see if this was the year they started to blossom into the future champions, or if they are simply one year wonders who took advantage of a peleton without a real patron.  Kim Kirchen showed that he is very much a strong rider, and I wonder how far he could go if he really decided to focus on the overall for the whole of the three weeks, rather than fighting for early glory.  He ended up realy having a great race, with several days in both the green and the yellow jerseys, before folling back into the also-rans.  He is a strong time-trialist, and a capable climber.  I don’t know if he will ever win the race, but he seems like someone who will be a player in future editions.

I think the hype over the Schleck brothers is deserved.  They are both very talented riders, and demonstrate the class of a possible champion.  They both need to work on their time trialing (especially Frank), but their ability to attack in the mountains, and their willingness to be agressive, suggest that they have sufficient class to maybe one day win this race.  I will go out on a limb and say that I believe that Andy Schleck may have a bit more of an upside than Frank, partially because of his youth, but also he seems to be a bit more of a complete rider. It is difficult to tell for certain, because he was a bit more saddled by team responsibilities, but I just get the sense that he may ultimately have a bit more of class, which might one day having fighting for the win.

While they didn’t get much credit, I thought that Bernhard Kohl and Stefan Schummacher from Gerolsteiner also had outstanding races.  Kohl showed solid ability in the mountains, and demonstrated an ability to ride a solid time trial.  I think that he benefited from not really being a favorite, and thus was given some freedom to gain time on a couple of mountain stages, but in the end, he had to defend his position, and getting on the podium showed that he basically rode a race that was free of mistakes.  Schummacher is also an underrated rider, who is one of the best riders against the clock, and also no slouch in the mountains.  I don’t think he will ever really contend for the race win, but I think he definitely made his mark, winning both time trials, as well as being a catalyst in the Alps.

THE AMERICANS

When considering the revelations of the race, the performance of Christian Vande Velde has to be very high up near the top of the list.  I will say that he benefitted by not being saddled with any undue pressure, but he really only had one bad day, balancing it with fantastic rides in both the Pyrenees and the Alps, and he rode the best time trial of all the favorites on Saturday.  It is disappointing to realize that without a crash on stage 16, he might have been riding for the win, or at least the podium, but then you have to remember that he really did exceed all expectations.  This was a year when Americans were not supposed to be amongst the real players, and even I wrote back on Day One that without Astana (”America’s Team”), it would be harder to enjoy the race.  I concede that I was wrong!!! Vande Velde rode with the heart of a champion, and demonstrated the experience gained from a decade in the peleton.  I wonder how he will ride next year, when he may be more of a marked man, but in reality, he has demostrated that he has taken the next step towards being a great rider. I am not convinced that he was really targeted or otherwise limited; he simply rode with the best riders in the mountains, with limited team support, and showed that he has alot of class.  A fifth place finish is a phenomenal achievement.  His progress may be limited by his age, but he certainly filled a void that was there at the start of the race, giving the casual American fan a reason to be interested, and continuing a string of Tours in which Americans mattered in the end results.

My hat goes off to George Hincapie, who is completing his twelfth Tour out of thirteen starts. It is great to see a rider, particularly an American rider, serve as the “elder statesmen” of the bunch.  He showed grit, courage, strength and intelligence in supporting his team, and in picking his own moments.  Of course, it was disappointing to see him get so close to a stage win in the Alps, only to fall short, but it is great to see him keep on keeping on, even on a new team.  I believe that his level-headedness played a solid role in the outstanding team performance, including five stage wins and several days in the lead.  It is still not the same as seeing him with Discovery/USPS, but in the end, he rode his normal solid race, finishing a credible 35th, and just keeping on keeping on.

It was exciting to see two American teams start the race, and become players in the race.  I began the Tour not really excited about either one.  I considered Columbia to be re-incarnation of T-Mobile, which is predominantly a European team, and not really American.  Garmin-Chipotle has felt like the JV little brother to the Discovery (turned Astana) team, and felt like they were only being given their chance in order to maintain an American presence. I am impressed with Jonathan Vaughters as a director sportif, for his commitment to clean racing, and indeed, because he seems to be taking the lessons learned in the Armstrong era, and continuing to apply them….because they are proven to work. In the end, though, even with only 4 US riders competing, I am sold on both of them.  They became players in the overall, on individual stages, and in secondary jersey competitions.  All four Americans (also including Danny Pate and Will Frischkorn) made noise in the race, and that is something to be proud of.

DRUGS

Perhaps for the first time in several years, I don’t feel as though the spector of drugs overwhelmed the race.  Yes, there were a few positive tests, and one of them, Riccardo Ricco, was a potentially major player in the race.  I said before that I had considered him suspect, and I guess, sadly, I was right.  I feel good, though, that the tests seem to be working, and the race is gaining in credibility.  I worry about teams pulling out of the sport, and with Barloworld dropping sponsorship, and Gerolsteiner looking for a new sponsor (not drug related, per se), I am concerned that the level of trust by the commercial world is suffering. I know that the best way to prove that cheaters are being caught is to actually catch them, but it also shows that some riders are still idiotic, and unwilling to really give in to clean sport, rather, they place their trust in advancing ways of cheating.  I am happy, though, that I feel as if the race was not altered by a cheat, even if Riccardo Ricco did win two stages, and could have been a major player.  I firmly believed that when I was watching the toughest stages, the riders were clean.  They gave this appearance of being….human…of being at their limits, without one being substantially better than another, and without any sort of superhuman effort that belied logic.  Maybe this made it a bit less spectacular, maybe you can call it parity, maybe you can say that the riders just didn’t have the class to attack like the champions of the past.  For me, though, I appreciate the struggle, and the fact that I can truly believe in it.  I like feel as though what I am watching is real, and that when I think something probably can or can’t be done within the human limits, I am right. I do believe that great champions still exist, and we will see them again. We will see superhuman-like rides, and enjoy them.

SUMMARY

There is a reason why this race is actually run.  I know that I have changed my predictions several times after various junctures of this race, and that fortunes have little to do with rider’s reputations.  This race is run on the roads, not on paper.  (If you care to go back and check my picks, be my guest). I should congratulate Oscar Friere for earning the green jersey due to his strength and consistency. He beat out quality challengers in Hushovd and Zabel, and competed admirably against Mark Cavendish, who may be the better sprinter, but then, you have to be there every day, with nary an off day, and be willing to fight for the intermediate sprints, in order to win this competition.  Bernhard Kohl was nowhere to be found when mentioning the contenders for the mountain prize, but he earned it.  I am not sure that there was really a dominating mountain racer this year, with only Sastre’s attack on the Alpe d’Huez really being considered an exploit to be remembered.  That being said, Kohl seized the opportunity, and won the competition.  CSC’s domination of the team classification should have been foreseen.  I know that I thought more about Caisse d’Epargne, and Arn mentioned Silence Lotto, both teams of which showed to be weak in the mountains. It was telling to note that the teams who performed well in the first half of the race (Caisse d’Epargne, Columbia & Garmin Chipotle) finished well down on the overall team classification, behind CSC, who dominated, and other less-heralded squads like AG2R and Gerolsteiner.

The Tour is just now over, and I am already thinking about next year.  I have enjoyed watching this race.  It was exciting, and close to the end, keeping my attention, which is a good thing.  It produced a winner who I consider to be deserving, and who I respect.  It held an American presence throughout, supporting my sense of jinjoism, and maintain a streak of over twenty years. I will still always wonder “what if”, as it pertains to the Astana team.  Watching this, I know that Contador COULD have won again, and I know that Leipheimer COULD have played a significant role.  The race would have been different….stronger teams battling each other, and different riders watching each other.  Leipheimer may now have to concede that he will never win the Tour, as he advances in age, and newer, younger riders come in.  That being said, it is always the riders who make the race, and I will tuck this year’s edition into my mental annals as being a good one, and I just have to wait now for twelve months to wait to see what happens next, in the never-ending story that is this great race.

Tour de France 2008- Stage 17

Wow….what a day!!!! It’s been a long time since I have seen a Tour de France take 17 days to really take shape, only to see it turned upside down on one climb.  I will say that I do not believe that the race is over at all.  There are still several men who can win, and the top placings can all still be shuffled before Paris.  With this in mind, I found it refreshing for one man to finally break the bonds of parity which have kept the leaders together for two and a half weeks, and make a real bid to win the race overall.

Much has been said about how l’Alpe d’Huez is the mecca of cycling, and how it could be the deciding factor in this year’s race, with it serving as the finish to the queen stage.  Much has been written in the last couple of days about how today’s stage, being the hardest, also would be the last, if not best chance, for riders such as Carlos Sastre, Bernhard Kohl and Frank Schleck to take the time away from Cadel Evans and Denis Menchov, to give them the cushion they would to survive Saturday’s time trial in the yellow jersey.  Despite being able to set up a perfect game plan, and knowing exactly what it would take to win, it is always a huge difference between creating strategy and executing it.  Up until today, we have seen all of the favorites jockey around a bit, stealing a few seconds here or there from each other, but never really being able to gain an edge on one another. Today was the day that this mold may finally have been broken, and the fact that it was done so close to the finish may yet prove to be the masterful planning of a champion.

There are a few things worth examining after today.  First of all, CSC continued to be as strong a team as we have seen in the Tour de France for years.  It is interesting how agressive they have been able to ride, day after day, mountain after mountain, and still keep their stars reasonably fresh.  This might be even a bit more impressive than USPS/Discovery at times, in that they have been able to support three strong riders, rather than just one. There has not been a hint of dissention between the Schlecks and Sastre; in fact, they have each had their opportunities to take time, and the other one always supported them as true teammates, during the attacks.

After today, I still don’t know if the Tour is won, but Carlos Sastre has, in my mind, made his championship bid, and in reality, has been the only won who has both been willing and capable of taking it the distance.  Schleck had his chance earlier, and gained a slight edge, but could not deliver a knockout blow.  Menchov has been unable to get away from Evans, and Kohl only elevated himself to his current position because he was in a lower position, and a bit of an unknown.  I am actually very happy for Sastre, because he has always been a dignified rider, and a consistently strong competitor in the Tour, but this is the first time I have considered him as being capable of winning the Tour de France.  I might feel sorry for Evans if he doesn’t win this year, in that he has really made no mistakes this year; he has followed the best in every move, and will probably ride the best in the time trial.  Sastre benefitted from his team’s defensive moves this year, while Evans has virtually ridden alone, having to cover every move with a bullseye on his back.

I am also very pleased to see Vande Velde ride so well today.  He was strong, and he was agressive.  He never once looked to be in trouble, even if he failed to break free.  When everyone was at their absolute limit, he never once faltered.  It will be forever disappointing to know that he might have been on the podium, save for one bad patch yesterday, compounded by a crash that he caused. Of course, this is a race that doesn’t forgive.  Valverde might have been on the podium, were in not for one bad day in the Pyrenees, but that could be said for alot of riders in the peleton.  On the bright side, Vande Velde has still exceeded all expectations, and has kept the American flag flying prominently in a year when it seemed unlikely to do so.

Andrew (my brother) beat me to the punch, in terms of making some predictions. I would like to share his thoughts, and then respond, because I have my own analysis of what is likely to happen. Andrew wrote:

Well that result on L’Alpe d’Huez wasn’t quite what I had expected.  I wonder if the Schlecks will still share a team with Carlos Sastre next year.

Looking ahead, it looks like it is still Cadel Evans’ race to lose. 

Assuming that in the top 6 the good time trialists will take about 2 1/2 minutes (par, based on estimate derived from the results of the shorter stage 4 TT where about 1 1/2 minutes separated the TT-three from the climbing-three) out of the less-TT-inclined, it looks like the close battles are Sastre v. Menchov for 2nd place and F. Schleck v. B. Kohl for fourth.

Given a par of 2 1/2 minutes, unfortunately it looks like VDV will need an extra special day with a particularly lousy day for Schleck or Kohl to claim 5th.

Final GC could look something like this:

evans	0:00:00
sastre	0:00:56
menchov	0:01:05
schleck, f	0:02:20
kohl	0:02:29
vandevelde	0:03:07

If you raise par to 3 minutes though (not out of the question it would seem) then it gives Menchov the edge for 2nd and makes fourth place very interesting between VDV, schleck, and kohl.  Should be exciting.

I am not going to wholly disagree with his logic, but I will also say this:  I believe that Carlos Sastre absolutely holds his destiny in his own hands.  I am of the belief that the yellow jersey does give an added incentive, particularly on the last weekend of the race.  1:32 is a cushion, and I firmly believe that Sastre is of a suitable caliber to make a good run at victory.  Evans will be inspired, no doubt, and I expect to see a closer fight than the margin above would suggest.  I am not going to predict the winner, because it will go down to seconds.  What I can say, decisively, is that when all is said and done, I believe that both Evans and Sastre will have gone through the entire race, making few if no errors, and the best rider will be determined champion.  When looking at the time trials and the mountains, each rider will most likely have gained the time necessary to stake them to a victory, and the one who gained the most will get the crown. 

I will say that I believe that this is now a two man race for the victory, with a few caveats.  One, I am assuming that there will be no mechanical issues or crashes to hamper these riders (not a given). Two, I am going to assume that there will be no positive tests come up that state that either of them cheated (again, I would love to assume this, but maybe this is the climate we are in, when I naturally have to at least entertain a thought that a strong stage isn’t chemically enhanced). Three, I will assume that none of the favorites are able to steal any seconds on Thursday or Friday.  On paper, these are transistion stages, but in both days, the profiles are not completely flat, and a rider looking to gain an edge could steal a few seconds at the end.  That being said, I don’t believe that anyone in the top ten will be given the freedom to make a break, because at this point, the final placings are still too close to call.

I will make my prediction that Sastre and Evans will be on the top two steps on the podium, with the slightest of edges given to Sastre. Menchov, by history, rides a strong enough time trial to take over a minute out of both Kohl and Schleck, and will take the third spot on the podium.  In many ways, I would consider this placing a bit of a disappointment, as he has had enough weak moments to suggest that he might have really been able to contend for the victory, had he stayed more consistent.  I given Schleck the slighest of edge over Kohl for fourth place, with Vande Velde staying in 6th.  Had he not struggled yesterday, I would say that Vande Velde might have been on the podium, and he will make it very close, but I don’t see him taking 3+ minutes out of those two, when they are still inspired by a potential spot of the podium.

This has been an interesting Tour, and it is good to finally see a turning point in it.  The great thing about a three week bike race is the unpredictability of it, and how what people expect to happen, seldom actually do, at least not without some suspense.  It may be that Evans wins the race, which he has been favored to do all year.  Today, though, cements in my mind that Sastre has finally shed the label of “forgotten man”, to that of a rider who has made a serious bid to win the race, when no one else could stop him.  I am so looking forward to the next four days to see how things shape up in one of the closest battles we have seen for years.